Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2564.75 | 2563.00 |
| …would target | 2570.75 | 2569.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2557.75 | 2556.00 |
| …would target | 2552.50 | 2550.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
For being the eve of the anniversary of 1987’s “Black Monday” market crash, Wednesday wasn’t very intimidating. Gapping up and then ranging exclusively in positive territory doesn’t seem bearish. Perhaps a reversal is trying to ambush the rally.
An ambush is possible. Here’s how…
This being expiration week, the WedEX setup triggered, and its signal is “actively bullish.” That was done by essentially breaking out above a multi-session range, defined by Tuesday’s 2557.25 close. That happens also to be Wednesday’s 2557.25 low, so gapping down under it Thursday would affect the WedEX signal by proxy, and adjust it to “passively bearish.”
But that’s just regarding WedEX, which only influences Friday afternoon and Monday morning. Due to Wednesday’s last timing window having overlapped the 2561.50, gapping down under Wednesday’s low Thursday would also reverse near-term momentum down.
Those are the bearish scenarios. Meanwhile, two pieces of “unfinished business above” were created Wednesday, and both were left outstanding. The pre-open 2562.25 “new Globex trend extreme, and the morning’s 2563.75 bias-up target. A bearish template is available if they’re fulfilled after gapping down Thursday, but it would take a circus-quality contortionist to qualify.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
This week’s two gaps down did not extend down intraday. Wednesday didn’t gap down, but trended back up to the 1.1830 sell signal, filling the gap back up to Monday’s close. There is little excuse to further delay extending down to 1.1760, let alone to break under it and to trend down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s drop to 1288.00 extended down overnight to probe the 1277.50-1280.50 targeted support. Post-open action ranged flat-to-higher, but exclusively in negative territory. Closing back above 1288.00 would signal the correction had ended, allowing the recent rally to resume. Extending any deeper would target 1273.00, if not also 1269.00, while still being considered only a temporary correction.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Wednesday under Tuesday’s 17.20 low didn’t extend lower, and the session ultimately fluctuated choppily around 17.20. Closing back above 17.11 would signal the correction had ended without extending to 16.75 first.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap down to test “lower prior highs” at 152-26 doesn’t invalidate the recovery, and introduces a buy signal that would be triggered back above 153-14.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s gap up to Monday and Tuesday’s highs soon reacted down into Tuesday afternoon’s range, and held, barely recovering into positive territory. The 52.65 objective remains intact.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s reversal from having gapped up to the sell signal at 3.00 had reversed down intraday to 2.95. Wednesday’s gap down to the sell signal’s 2.89 target extended lower intraday to within 4-5 cents of potential for filling the gap outstanding from the two-week old low close.
Mid-day Update… Putting down roots.
Not rejecting bias-ups.
The post-open slide back down to this morning’s 2557.75 bias-up signal had held as support, piercing it by 2 ticks.
A bounce tested 2559.75 resistance, by 2 ticks. Its reaction down touched the morning’s low and bounced again.
The second bounce has been more productive. Its test of 2559.75 resistance extended to touch this afternoon’s 2561.25 bias-up signal. It was still being tested (at least, to within 1 tick) at both 1:20 and 1:30 to trigger noN-bias.
This afternoon’s bias environment is neither a bias-up nor a no-bias. The bias-up target is not required to be met, and the bias-up signal isn’t required to contain the window’s upper-end.
Meanwhile, a buy signal is already in-play. The pre-open 2562.25 “new Globex trend extreme” and this morning’s 2566.50 bias-up target both require an eventual test. And fresh afternoon highs are now attacking 2562.00. There’s no requirement to extend their tests, but the resolution to their tests will be very predictive near-term.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Oct 19, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s Philly Fed survey is the only Fed survey that is reliable for influencing price action, but it isn’t high-profile. Jobless Claims is the opposite, being high-profile but not influential. The post-open LEI qualifies for both. Meanwhile, this is the anniversary of 1987’s so-called Black Monday crash.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
30-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET