Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2563.00 | 2561.25 |
| …would target | 2568.25 | 2566.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2557.25 | 2555.50 |
| …would target | 2551.75 | 2550.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… No anchor.
Overnight rally attracts no reinforcements.
The overnight rally from 2557.75 finally extended up to 2562.25 before the open. The late lift-off and the pre-open channle incurred a warning that post-open action could reverse sentiment.
In fact, the open was greeted 3 ticks under the pre-open high, and the opening 15 minutes fell back to 2559.50. Extending higher through the open’s window would have formed an anchor to at least ensure recovery. Not here. Instead, the reaction down extended lower to test this morning’s 2557.75 bias-up signal by 2 ticks. It held in time to trigger late bias-up.
The 2563.75 bias-up target is in-play. Back above 2559.75 would start to signal momentum reversing up. Meanwhile, the 2557.75 bias-up signal shoul’s test should define the morning window’s lower-end. Breaking under it after 11:30 would be credible for extending down.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Movement!
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open missed the chance to start trending immediately. That would have been likely to gain traction and to extend through the morning. Instead, the morning — and then, the afternoon — were contained within a choppy, narrow 2552.50-2556.25 range. Rallying out of the afternoon bias environment exit extended to touch Monday’s 2557.75 opening high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s rally soon probed a little higher to touch a fresh high at 2558.50. Then price action flat-lined, barely trading a 6-tick range. That included several hours past Europe’s opens, which made no impression. Then price suddenly surged to 2560.50, and now another point higher. That extra push has formed complexity, which requires an intraday retest of the overnight high for being a “new Globex trend extreme.”
If, then…
Monday’s action already having suggested the multi-session ranging was ready to resolve, and opens had become vulnerable to extending a gap or surge in either direction. Yesterday’s session didn’t change that, and now this morning’s open seems intent to compensate for the delay. This makes resolving up only slightly likelier — because reversing down from a gap up above prior highs would require eventual retest. So does the “new Globex trend extreme.” Meanwhile, compensating for the resolution’s delay reintroduces a post-open risk of reversing down, even if only to test what is now “lower prior highs” of 2556.00 or 2550.00-2553.25. Much will be determined by whether gapping up is maintained through the open.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2559.00 would be likely to trigger the 2557.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2556.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market to her apparently yesterday was the Calm before the storm yesterday I even on Mondays action had already said that the ongoing resolution I’m sorry the ongoing ranging ever since Friday’s employment situation report or actually the Thursday prior to it I told us that holding 2440 through 2543 was going to limit the downside or at least give us a dividing line again this wasn’t coiling all the way up somewhat similar but we’re going to look at this pretty seriously after the open as in the context of was it failed coiling I’m going to that in a moment but the whole point and seeking higher and higher every day wasn’t what told us it was going to resolve or in which direction is going to resolve it back of an ongoing pattern with resistance 22550 2553 with an ongoing behavioral issue of rejecting in the strongest terms early enthusiasm when there wasn’t any gapping up collapsing collapsing closing at the high collapse and cap and gown do it again and finally broke that pattern on Monday until resolution coming when whichever direction to determine and other indications was that was ever broken again 2543 held initially Friday we anticipated that didn’t mean that the potential for breaking ever went away but it never developed there’s another load it was tested in today and held include us into this just that sort of behavior and now today or as of Monday remember the last 60 90 minutes of the session doesn’t belong to that session it belongs to the next session and until the last 60 90 minutes of yesterday’s session at 2:30 when the noon hour is how I broke the market Hedges range near Lee sideways maybe a little early but sideways nearly so it’s as if today by yesterday’s late rally and then flatlining didn’t even make it until 5:30 that suddenly lifted off extended higher so it’s as if the markets trying to compensate for the delay this goes back to the pattern in the potential for it to be a pattern let’s go back to what we already know she this complexity there’s a new high pull back pull back above the range this is actually above all before recovering has to measure out at least 61.8% of that prior move whichbut you can see it doesFlex it is a new Globex Trend extreme big a new Globex friend extreme that requires retest intraday it’s how I will require being retested intraday often the same day so it’s going to be difficult justifying a short until that’s actually tested or unless the overnight low is rejected through the open but that’s so far away from the overnight low 25 5625 that something is not really any high-profile stuff but there’s a Fed speak of another high-profile or whole profile Pro Bowl before the open that that has that kind of ability earnings are coming of course IBM yesterday but the nothing really at this stage very little very little a reaction is back under the mat would reject or get out of the orbit of the overnight high so that we could trim down also gapping up on a delayed basis basically trying to compensate for the delay that runs the risk of being we can we can sponsor should not so we can eat there a specific way a reflection of strong hand in sponsorship that’s why does fail in other words and why is it let me go back why is it not likely to be a successful cleaning pattern because coiling which is kind of restrained optimism in other words or restrain pessimism up with a downward slant but restrained optimism in this case should develop back to a prior high this just kept peeking out fresh pies except satisfying buyers with a fresh high as opposed to creeping and crawling its way backed up to a prior High over multiple sessions so it’s not really but it’s trying to be by resolving is coiling does which is to almost literally explode iron it’s doing that in the wrong set up as I just described it so delayed that is when it became viable the next session literally died on the vine so this seems more exhaustive or at least has that potential what’s the defining difference the defining difference at least for today’s session or the next couple several will be whether the opens Gap up first of all where there is an opening is maintained through the 15 minutes that would do one of two things the upside so if in fact the open does maintain its if it’s maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility and preferably in to 9:45 that doesn’t that doesn’t she would be recovered but it also if it doesn’t reverse down significantly and big difference of rejecting opening enthusiasm has a delay and not trying to compensate for that delay we would have been it would have been time and so would have been very likely to extend higher today has that little bit of Suspicion because of yesterday’s delay So bottom line is if it doesn’t extendworking or at workand it’s minimumprioritize which at this point is into the range 2553 maybe 2550 that would be the reaction down vs the opens Gap up isn’t going to hold if it does then even then we can see a lower price wise lower pressure I say down to 2555 52.66 and then 2556 would be the dividing line dividing line between recovery or deeper rejected this than and opens under 25 5625 then we’ll just be looking for several sessions of substantial decline all right we do have a buy at Target that it’s a triggers is just ahead at 6375 wouldn’t be surprising if the Gap up is maintained if if the entrenchment Extenze wouldn’t be surprised to take that out and have a blowout day again exhaustive or capitulation may be more precise or more applicable in this instance that has some blow off type of extension through the morning this is Wednesday of next week so we will have a wed x signal we will have a wed x signal and today is closed and it should be fairly right it should be fairly evident in this case because of the lead up to it that closing above reversing down there’s not a lot of bells and whistles on the market because of the really big fork in the road that is developed considering testing or attacking the lower end of the range so presumably the producer outstandinga little lower 3163 at the there and then the potential for timing is pretty much it’s going to that tried to take off into a much bigger more speculative bubble this actually is by extending the pull back here and actually getting the minimum 12 of the target areaby getting 12850 Ember there’s a range law of 1850 down to 1270 750 by actually touching that minimum pool bacteria this bottom that we talked about on employment situation day the bottom that formed or was likely forming this is a very constructive correction for that leaving gaps outstanding above it says neutralizing lower prioritize and gaps below so willing to give that big better for the day out in this area someone similarly is silver somewhat similar is silver perform gold on the way up doesn’t have his deep of a pullback required doesn’t really have to pull back much deeper if it all under-17 but there’s a much shallower resolution if it wants to Long Pond is in its bigger turn also looking at a couple Fridays ago being a bottom but still hasn’t resolved up or signal test yesterday morning handled it very well it is still targeting a minimum of 50 to 65 and by the way it is natural gas this morning and if it’s not rejected
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Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2559.75 | 2557.75 |
| …would target | 2565.75 | 2563.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2553.50 | 2551.50 |
| …would target | 2547.50 | 2545.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday was a most unattractive session for trading opportunities. But it wasn’t the least attractive opportunity to apply the methodology. One aspect, at least — to know early that it would be a dry cleaners morning (more productive to run errands). The afternoon gave the same signal, and applied until the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30.
That’s precisely when the noon hour’s high was probed. And that probe persisted through the close, touching Monday’s 2557.75 opening high.
Having closed within prior intraday ranging, extending higher Wednesday all but requires maintaining a gap up through the open. The pattern otherwise remains vulnerable to declining immediately — more so a serious attempt at reversing the trend down, and less for backing-and-filling.
On that latter point, note that Tuesday’s close trended up. And also that the afternoon’s 2552.50 low was contained in the bias environment. So, gapping down to and/or through 2552.50 could form a “session-long decline” setup. That’s not the session’s only possible setup, but it makes selling overnight weakness more compelling than buying it.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.