Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Can higher hold?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s repeated tests of the 2803.00 area had failed to break higher, despite having an attraction up to 2811.25-2812.00. So, strong-handed buyers were sought at lower levels, and the overnight dip began finding them at 2785.50. Already beginning to to recover by midnight, and largely recovered before Europe’s opens, Wednesday’s open was greeted by gapping up to 2807.50. The morning’s bias environment surged through 2811.25-2812.00 up to attack 2824.00. A Complex Inverted Head & Shoulders formed during the noon hour to produce a brief surge up to 2826.50 that collapsed to test 2814.00, ranging sideways into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Despite Globex quickly firming up to 2823.50, it was all retraced back down to 2814.00 by midnight. And then it was all recovered, attacking 2825.00 and then retesting it. Resistance there proved itself as price collapsed back down to fresh overnight lows attacking 2811.00 close on China trade news.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
In case you couldn’t join is in real-time yesterday, the post-close In-depth Overview was recorded here. I also recommend (re?)visiting the more detailed discussions of Basic Concepts here. Your feedback is appreciated… The template for trending up intraday can’t tolerate initial weakness. Gapping up above 2824.00-2825.00 would serve by proxy to form a bullish WedEX, which is otherwise bearish for Wednesday having been contained within last Monday’s range. Probing above 2824.00-2825.00 intraday could still be productive up to the 2831.00 area, while being vulnerable to repeating yesterday’s collapse from probing fresh highs — but more substantially. Meanwhile, initial weakness that triggers bias-down would target Tuesday’s “lower prior highs” at 2801.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2817.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2822.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2817.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2813.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2811.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2817.75 | 2822.75 |
| …would target | 2824.50 | 2829.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2818.25 | 2813.00 |
| …would target | 2801.50 | 2806.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
In case you couldn’t join is in real-time, the post-close In-depth Overview was recorded here…
Tuesday night’s dip to 2785.50 had already begun recovering by midnight and was largely recovered before Europe’s opens. The intraday attempts to probe the 2803.00 area to 2811.25-2812.00 remained intact. Reversing down from there was a vulnerability so long as it wasn’t approached aggressively. But it was, and it was exceeded up to 2826.50.
That was the afternoon’s peak. The rally had otherwise ended with the morning’s bias environment. Its break higher from a Complex Inverted Head & Shoulders was doomed to failure, even if not attempted during a no-bias environment. Its reversal tested 2814.00 as support, and the final hour ranged sideways back up to 2820.00.
Closing above the Head & Shoulders 2824.00-2825.00 resistance would have been bullish, suggesting the bearish pattern had run its course. Gapping up above it would serve by proxy to form a bullish WedEX, which is otherwise bearish for Wednesday having been contained within last Monday’s range. Regardless, as I began discussing last month, I’m reviewing the indicator as being influential only to Monday mornings, depending upon the Friday afternoon price action input. None of which applies after Thursday’s open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Two days of testing natural resistance at the 1.1300 61.8% gap-fill have resolved up to test 1.1340. Back under 1.1295 would still trigger the retest of the 1.1195 gap fill at the low.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s was Gold’s day to outperform, up sharply pre-open to fresh recovery highs that were maintained through the day. The rally leg seems entrenched, albeit not necessarily enough to yet allow a corrective day before extending higher.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday ranged entirely in positive territory but was retrained by Tuesday’s highs. A higher close Thursday is needed to confirm that Wednesday’s pattern was not bearish “ineffectual optimism.”
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Wednesday spent the session hovering narrowly at the 146-00 pullback limit to keep alive upside momentum, while requiring the rally to resume without delay to avoid a much deeper retracement.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already testing Tuesday’s highs early Wednesday, the morning’s EIA report was being greeted from a position of strength. Its reaction probed higher for the first qualified close above the 57.00 buy signal.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two days of sitting at the 2.76 sleeper low had held, and finally began recovering Wednesday. But not enough to reverse momentum up above 2.84, so Thursday’s EIA report isn’t being greeted from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… And a reminder.
REMINDER: Join us in the chaRTroom after today’s close at 4:30 ET for a special introductory overview of the If Then method. It’s onboarding for newer subscribers, a refresher for seasoned subscribers, and a good opportunity to focus on strategy and tactics as market volatility begins heating up again…
This morning’s 2811.25 bias-up target was barely exceeded at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. But it didn’t hesitate proving itself out, extending to fresh highs before 10:30. Then through the 2818.00 renewed bias-up target. And higher.
The bias environment began lapsing at 11:30 near 2824.00.
Reacting down to 2817.50 during the noon hour has recovered to test the afternoon’s 2723.00 bias-up signal. It wasn’t exceeded, triggering late no-bias. Which doesn’t prevent probing higher anyway, but probing higher anyway would likely reverse back down sharply.
Back under 2819.50 at any time would already signal momentum reversing down. Nothing requires retracing all of today’s rally, but its possibility is among the afternoon’s templates.