Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 14, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s pre-open Claims is high-profile, but has no recent track record for influencing price action. Nevertheless, any noticeable reaction should be duplicated by the post-open Home Sales.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2818.00 | 2823.00 |
| …would target | 2824.00 | 2829.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2811.00 | 2815.75 |
| …would target | 2803.75 | 2808.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Targets are also resistance.
Recovery extends to quickly fulfill upside.
Last night’s dip had recovered from its attack on 2788.00 up to yesterday’s last relative high above 2800.00. 
This, alone, was more than enough to suggest potential up to 2811.25-2812.00 would be met. Greeting the open at 2807.50 only made that likelier.
But nothing would make extending any higher any likelier. Nothing, except for extending higher relentlessly. Which the open did not do.
The opening 15 minutes of volatility eked higher, but each leg overlapped the opening print. Finally breaking higher surged until fulfilling 2811.25-2812.00. Not for long enough to be considered relentless, but the bias-up target was exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal.
Breaking higher has attacked 2815.00, short so far of the 2818.00 renewed bias-up target. RSIs are diverging negatively, and the 2813.00 pullback limit is being violated. Back under 2811.00 would start to signal momentum already reversing down.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Bigger fish.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s excessive optimism had continued its productivity post-close, probing higher overnight to 2799.00. Reacting back down into negative territory at 2785.50 was recovered in time to avoid a bearish opening setup. Its reward was to probe even higher highs attacking 2803.00. But ultimately the opening levels around 2793.00 were retraced.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s last 60-90 minutes had dipped back down to session lows at 2793.00, reacting up to 2800.50. Globex immediately dipped again and extended down — albeit choppily — to attack 2788.00. Already firming into midnight, the balance of the session has trended back up to now probe above 2800.50 to 2802.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Perhaps anxiousness ahead of the Brexit vote inhibited the extension higher, and then limited the reaction down. Not surprisingly, reaction to the heavily-watched event contained fewer surprises than did its pre-ordained outcome. The overnight round-trip suggests there won’t be initial downside. Rather, the dip may have wrung out yesterday’s anxiousness, and the indicated open is postured to attack yesterday’s well-worn highs. Probing higher this morning might reverse down from testing 2811.25-2812.00, because last night’s shallow dip didn’t stretch the rubber band very much. Otherwise, probing any higher after a shallow pullback would reflect more excessive optimism like Monday — and also like Monday, extend higher steeply. So, a steep slope attacking 2811.25-2812.00 would be likelier to extend higher.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2797.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2803.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2799.00 | 2803.75 |
| …would target | 2806.50 | 2811.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2785.75 | 2790.75 |
| …would target | 2779.25 | 2784.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.