Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s excessive optimism had continued its productivity post-close, probing higher overnight to 2799.00. Reacting back down into negative territory at 2785.50 was recovered in time to avoid a bearish opening setup. Its reward was to probe even higher highs attacking 2803.00. But ultimately the opening levels around 2793.00 were retraced. Perhaps anxiousness ahead of the Brexit vote inhibited the extension higher, but then it also limited the reaction down. In any case, Tuesday’s ranging has potential to be probed even higher to 2811.25-2812.00, unless Wednesday’s open has gapped down back under Monday’s 2789.00 high to form an Island Reversal pattern.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday extended to test the 61.8% retracement of the gap between last Wednesday-Thursday’s session at 1.1300. This typically holds if tested. Back under 1.1269 would target a retest of the recent 1.1188 low.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s reaction down was recovered entirely into Tuesday’s open. A second consecutive higher close on Wednesday would be likely to trend in that direction intraday.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already rallying overnight had probed above Friday’s prior high, all but confirming that Monday’s dip back down to the pattern’s buy signal had held.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing under Sunday night’s low Monday night to test the 145-04 sell signal was recovered to open back within Monday’s range, before extending to fresh recovery highs at 146-14. A second consecutive higher close on Wednesday would confirm the upleg was extending Meanwhile, Wednesday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Returning yet again to the 57.00 buy signal overnight had probed above it to gap up Tuesday. Probing a little higher proved too much before retracing back under 57.00. But not deeply enough to invalidate ongoing the recovery attempt.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s session was nearly identical to Monday, sitting very still at the 2.76 support instead of reacting back up to the recently created gap.
Mid-day Update… Slow-play, or slow day?
Still hovering at the highs.
This morning’s 2803.00 renewed bias-up target was attacked to within 3 ticks several times, twice to within 1 tick. And now it’s being attacked again, this time during the afternoon’s bias environment.
This afternoon’s bias-up signal is 2303.75, and it didn’t trigger in time to signal bias-up. So, it should define the window’s upper-end if tested. Probing above it during a no-bias environment would require its retracement, potentially down to the 2798.00 1:20 print.
A reaction down would have room to the 2790.75 bias-down signal. Nothing requires trending at all for the balance of the session, but the last 60-90 minutes can be vulnerable to reversals.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 13, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s pre-open Durable Goods is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action. As is PPI, which is being announced simultaneously. Post-open reports should duplicate their effect(s), if any. Price action ahead of the noon hour’s 30-year auction can become inhibited until its results are known.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2799.00 | 2803.75 |
| …would target | 2806.50 | 2811.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2785.75 | 2790.75 |
| …would target | 2779.25 | 2784.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.