Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Traction rewarded.
Reversal setup avoided, producing fresh highs.
The pre-open dip back under the 2789.25 earlier Globex low had reached 2785.50. Having probed yesterday’s high overnight, maintaining the reversal through the open would have formed a bearish Globex-flip. 
Two hours still remained before the open, so the question I posed during Market Tour was whether the dip would be maintained.
It was not.
Its reaction up greeted the open at or above the 2791.50 bias-up signal. Price gradually improved — gradually, choppily, but not steadily in contrast with yesterday’s opening surge. The 2797.00 bias-up target was met and held without renewing bias-up, but its 2803.00 renewed bias-up target was met (to within 3 ticks) anyway.
All of which may have been the product of opening sponsorship, fulfilling the traction earned by yesterday afternoon’s buyers. Since violating a pullback limit at 2800.50, the high was retested to within 1 tick of 2803.00. But there was no interim accumulation, and no complexity had formed. The recovery attempt was premature.
In fact, the recovery attempt has retraced entirely to touch a sell signal at 2796.75. Yesterday afternoon buyers have been rewarded. And soon the bias-up window will begin lapsing. Triggering a sell signal would be credible for reversing the trend back down to at least correct a portion of yesterday’s rally. But back above 2801.00 would no longer be premature to resume the rally.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Early to rise, more time to fall.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The week began as optimistically as they can get. Gapping up to 2755.00, and trending almost straight up throughout the session to 2788.00-2389.00. The morning segment of the rally was steeper and more productive than the afternoon, but each was relentless with relatively shallow pullbacks. “Higher prior lows” at 2775.00 was the potential objective, and it was exceeded easily and by far. No “unfinished business” was left outstanding as the afternoon peaked upon fulfilling its bias-up target.
Overnight action’s new info…
Overnight action so far is exclusively above yesterday’s range. But its initial enthusiasm — follow-through from the intraday rally — has been retraced almost entirely. Surging 4-5 points from the close up to 2792.50 soon extended higher to 2799.00. That was the first hour of Globex. Sideways through midnight has since worked its way back down to yesterday’s close. To it, and now through it to 2785.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
PROGRAMMING SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: I’m hosting a special introductory overview of the If Then method after Wednesday’s close at 4:30 ET. Onboarding for newer subscribers, refresher for seasoned subscribers, and a good opportunity to focus on strategy and tactics as market volatility begins heating up again… Yesterday afternoon’s traction signal was triggered when the bias environment’s bullish exit was confirmed by the proxy window. There was one caveat, that the bias environment had only ranged narrowly sideways, mitigating the effort that traction was rewarding. So, unless still holding up through Tuesday’s open, its reward of probing above Monday’s highs might have been fulfilled overnight. Opening under the earlier Globex low could form a bearish Globex-flip setup that points down through the morning. By the same token, forming a Globex-flip without actually triggering it would be as bullish as it would have been bearish.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2787.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2791.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2786.75 | 2791.50 |
| …would target | 2792.25 | 2797.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2777.50 | 2782.50 |
| …would target | 2768.00 | 2775.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
PROGRAMMING SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: I’m hosting a special introductory overview of the If Then method after Wednesday’s close. Onboarding for newer subscribers, refresher for seasoned subscribers, and a good opportunity to focus on strategy and tactics as market volatility begins heating up again… More info to follow.
Gapping up to 2755.00 and trending almost straight up entered the noon hour at 2781.00. 
The rally’s character changed slightly, more of stair-stepping than relentlessness. But pullbacks weren’t much deeper, and they maintained the ongoing trending series of higher highs and higher lows.
The afternoon’s bias-up signal triggered, missing perhaps the session’s last serious opportunity to reverse the trend down. Meeting the 2788.00 bias-up target didn’t reverse down any more so than the session’s previous consolidations, as the last half-hour hovered at the highs.
Avoiding an intraday correction was Monday’s last bit of excessive optimism. Add it to having gapped up, rallying sharply then relentlessly. None of which equates to being a sell signal. But no “unfinished business” remains outstanding, testing the 2775.00 higher prior lows and the afternoon’s 2788.00 bias-up target.
The bias environment’s 2:30 exit did lapse above the noon hour high, and the 3:10-3:20 proxy window trend to fresh session highs. That’s officially traction. It’s not as reliable since the afternoon bias environment only ranged narrowly around its entry. But not already trending down overnight would be likely to probe higher Tuesday morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s narrow ranging wasn’t contained entirely within Friday’s range, but it only fluctuated around unchanged. And Friday itself was an Inside Day, biased-upward, which suggests that buyers are weak-handed and the recent low will be retested.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Monday back to the 1295.70 buy signal was extended intraday to attack 1290.00 support, in proximity of filling the gap back to Thursday’s 1286.50 close. Meanwhile, any close back above 1295.70 would be credible for resuming the rally.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday morning’s test and retest of the 15.27 buy signal as support ultimately went out fluctuating narrowly around it, with a close above 15.40 still needed to confirm the rally is underway.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Monday within Friday’s range was retraced to fill the gap back up to Friday’s close, which held, and reacted back down to the morning’s 145-17 lows — still above the pre-open 145-11 low. No higher objective is required since the confirmed breakout’s minimum third higher close was fulfilled Friday. A pullback currently has room down to 145-04 before reversing the trend down.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s post-open recovery gapped up Monday and extended quickly to touch the 57.00 buy signal. Again. Unlike last week’s last 3 tests, the signal was retested intraday. Both tests reacted down, but 57.00 was still attacked again. Closing above it would be likely to extend higher without delay.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday’s open gapped down and extended lower for Monday’s gap down to test the 2.78 sleeper low. Ranging flat-to-lower through the morning did not gaining traction to the downside, and keeps alive a likelihood for filling the gap back up to Friday’s 2.86 close — if not also if not also for resuming the rally above 2.89 resistance.