Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Still upticking.
Afternoon bias-up triggered.
That potential up to “higher prior lows” at 2775.00? It was met before the bias environment was even within view of lapsing — 10 points ago. The noon hour was entered at 2781.00, this afternoon’s 2782.50 bias-up signal has triggered, and fresh highs are testing 2785.00. The 2788.00 bias-up target is in-play.
The nearest sell signal would trigger under 2780.50. Which is pretty aggressive, especially for this being a bias-up environment. But as extended as today’s rally has become, any stumble would suggest a deeper detour underway, perhaps only to test this afternoon’s 2774.75 bias-down signal.
Meanwhile, upside momentum remains intact. And fresh highs since 1:20 should at least require any pullback to recover.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 12, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The post-open CPI is Tuesday’s only high-profile OR reliably influential econ report. The 10-year auction could inhibit price action ahead of its results.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
*CPI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2777.50 | 2782.50 |
| …would target | 2783.00 | 2788.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2769.50 | 2774.75 |
| …would target | 2760.75 | 2766.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sellers in hiding.
Post-open straight shot higher.
Overnight testing of the 2758.00 bias-up target had briefly probed 2 points higher. 
The open was greeted by a 5-point dip to 2755.00, which was the last hint of pessimism. Now 20 points above the open and 27 points above Friday’s cash session close, the potential objective at 2775.00 is being probed.
That’s a lot of buying pressure expended, in a brief time, but it’s hardly the only indicia of optimism. Gapping up, rallying relentlessly, with each of several pullbacks limited to 2 points each… +/- 1 tick. Several negatively diverging 1-minute RSIs were offset by persistently overbought 3-minute RSI.
“Higher prior lows” at 2775.00 were the likely objective for maintaining and extending a gap up, and that’s now fulfilled. The context has been a temporary correction, having left Friday’s 2732.00 opening gap unfilled. The pattern is entirely capable of reversing down at any time, as soon as this afternoon. But not easily without 3-minute RSI leaving overbought territory, and then retesting the high’s simultaneously overbought RSIs. And nothing would require a reversal to be relentless heading down.
Extending the rally is possible. Fresh highs now are testing 2777.00. Trending higher from an external artificial catalyst would be a compelling short, i.e. Trump China trade tweet. Could the rally hover or head higher in hopes of such reinforcement, if not in fear of it?
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Trying to recover.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s pattern was a tale of two cities, one bearish and the other bullish. It begins by probing fresh relative lows overnight and then gapping down to 2732.00 in reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report. The week-long decline’s next lower target at 2727.25 held a couple of tests through the bias timing window, and the first hour’s five 15-minute checkpoints overlapped the same relevant level to signal a Dry Cleaners morning. The balance of the morning retraced the payrolls reaction back up to 2741.50, which the noon hour retraced back down to the morning’s test of 2727.25. Then came the bullish tale, as the balance of the session rallied back up to 2748.00 and 2752.50. The moral of the story was still negative, ending under Thursday’s 2754.00-2755.00 close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s Globex session has done what Friday afternoon’s rally did not, finally retesting Thursday’s close. A weak open dipped as low as 2741.75 before beginning to retrace, recovering all of the opening drop and more. Attacking 2756.00 by midnight, and testing 2758.00 into Europe’s opens, has settled back under 2756.00 — still several points into positive territory.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s reaction to the pre-open payrolls report was exacerbated by the impending two days of illiquidity. The afternoon’s rally retraced it, but didn’t reject it. The 2732.00 open’s gap under prior lows wants to be retested from above, which could trigger a deeper pullback targeting 2720.50. Gapping open above Friday’s range would be vulnerable to a detour from retesting Friday’s open, perhaps up to 2775.00-2776.00. Gapping up only to resistance — such as this morning’s 2758.00 bias-up target — would be vulnerable to snapping back down into and through Friday’s range to fresh lows.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2753.00 would be likely to trigger the 2750.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2748.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.