Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Minutes by minutes.
Firming optimistically into FOMC Minutes.
Price action was somewhat inhibited ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. The noon hour’s fresh highs tested this afternoon’s 2550.75 bias-up signal. Twice. Its reaction down touched the intraday rally’s 2549.25 pullback limit. Twice. The news is now out, and the 2549.25-2550.75 range is still holding.
Not even a relief rally. How about a relief blip-up? A fresh high touching 2551.50 would raise the sell signal from 2548.00 up to 2549.50.
Nothing would require 2551.50 to hold, and any delay in reversing down from its test would be bullish. New highs are nearby, but keep stops tight as the pattern has been collapsing from this area.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Oct 12, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday morning’s Fed speaker follows a couple of pre-open reports that are both high-profile, and one of which often influences price action. Any noticeable impact is likely to be duplicated later. The noon hour’s 30-year auction often inhibits price action before the results, which then tends to allow a brief relief rally.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2552.75 | 2550.75 |
| …would target | 2557.00 | 2555.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2547.50 | 2545.50 |
| …would target | 2541.00 | 2539.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Scale model.
Open’s surge reverses down, but only a little this time.
Having pulled back from the 2549.75 overnight high to 2544.25, greeting the open at 2548.00 could have resumed yesterday afternoon’s recovery. But quickly extending to within 1 tick of the overnight high at 2549.50 was reversed down as quickly. And more so, to 2546.00.
The gap up was shallower than Monday and Tuesday, and so was its reversal down. But the pattern is no less distributive. Also similar to the prior two sessions, today’s post-open reversal down hasn’t extended. It has recovered to 2549.00.
Almost any higher than 2549.00 would put into play a test of this morning’s 2551.50 bias-up signal. There’s also room below to the 2543.75 bias-down signal during this morning’s no-bias environment. Trending after that would be likely, albeit inhibited ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Fear of heights.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up failed like Monday’s did, which also collapsed. But Tuesday’s gap up neutralized “unfinished business above” at 2552.00 which Monday’s gap up had stopped 2 points short of touching. No other objective above remains outstanding, but the morning’s collapse to 2543.00 never extended. Indeed, it held a noon hour retest instead of breaking lower.
Overnight action’s new info…
The interim high between Tuesday’s two tests of 2543.00 was 2547.00. Tuesday afternoon had fluctuated narrowly and choppily around 2547.00. Globex initially probed a little higher, attacking 2550.00. But it reversed through Europe’s opens down to 2545.00. Now a bounce is testing 2547.00 as resistance.
If, then…
No unfinished business above is not necessarily a top, not until exploited by breaking a relevant support below. And the longer that sellers don’t exploit the stagnation, the less likely that they will. Retesting Tuesday’s opening highs is still possible in either a bullish or bearish scenario, but less and less likely if today’s open is already in decline. Not yet breaking lower before this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes would make fresh highs likely.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2543.00 would be likely to trigger the 2543.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2547.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.