Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2553.50 | 2551.50 |
| …would target | 2558.50 | 2556.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2545.75 | 2543.75 |
| …would target | 2539.50 | 2537.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s repeat of Monday’s opening pattern — gap up, collapse down — confirms the potential for a significant peak in this area. Tuesday’s open included the 2552.00 objective that Monday’s open had missed before reversing down. Consequently, no “unfinished business above” remains outstanding.
But while there’s no active attraction above, there’s no reversal signaled below. Relevant levels have held their tests as support, or simply not been challenged through the close. Sellers aren’t gaining any traction for their efforts.
The rally could resume simply by testing Tuesday’s opening highs, and not quickly reversing down. Meanwhile, almost any probe under Tuesday’s lows would start to roll over the edge, and threaten to signal a trend change by the close.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Attempts at holding 1.1760 support continued Tuesday, as the bounce extended higher to probe the 1.1810 bounce limit up to 1.1870. The near-term bearish resolution has no excuse to further delay breaking sharply back under 1.1760.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s gap up to test 1296.50 has not lessened the likelihood for retracing lower prior highs down to 1277.50-1280.50 before a durable rally would be credible.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday filled a 3-week old gap back up to 17.11, attacking 17.30. Any higher would seal a bottom, which may be a little too aggressive after so recently having probed a new low. A dip to 16.90-17.00 or even retest of 16.50 would form a more durable bottom.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The passage of time may have accomplished the correction that a deeper pullback did not. Tuesday morning’s rally through 152-20 up to 153-02 still has to recover 153-14 before confirming momentum is reversing up. Otherwise, not closing above 152-20 Tuesday keeps alive the 151-18 pullback potential before forming a more durable bottom.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Tuesday to the 50.25 bounce limit extended through it, probing the 50.75 buy signal intraday. The leg that closed above 50.75 was also still overlapping it, all but requiring the recovery to extend higher without delay if it is valid.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday morning’s bounce up to the 2.89 bounce limit held, and held there throughout the session. The gap now outstanding back down to Monday’s close should be filled before a break higher can be credible.
Mid-day Update… Stewing.
Low’s retest holds. So far.
The post-open collapse from 2553.25 ended in a blip-down to 2543.00. Its 4-point reaction up was consolidated until the noon hour. That’s when the consolidation finally resolved down, piercing the morning’s low by 1 tick and neutralizing its oversold RSIs.
The door was open to extending down. Remember, there’s no unfinished business above, and probing under yesterday’s 2539.25 low could launch a new downleg. Noon hour noise may have helped to avoid all of that, as it recovered up to 2548.00.
Holding an extreme’s retest is difficult to break during the same session. The post-open collapse’s low was retested during the noon hour, and their interim high was probed. So the door is open to extending higher, too.
Back under 2545.00 would start to signal that more fresh lows are coming. And more fresh lows coming in this pattern would be very bearish. Meanwhile, a bounce up to 2550.00 is likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Oct 11, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s econ calendar isn’t so much busy as it is high-profile and influential. Any effect triggered by the pre-open Fed speaker would be likely to repeat in reaction to the post-open Jobs Openings report. Price action often becomes inhibited ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release.
*Rob Kaplan Speaks
Tue 8:00 PM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
7:15 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET