Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming Sunday night held up through Monday morning to avoid resuming the decline, and the anticipated break back under 1.1760, which remains likely so long as bounces hold 1.810
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Although Friday’s brief probe of fresh lows had been retraced while failing to gain traction, Sunday night’s bounce to 1288.00 resistance was premature for already launching a recovery. Monday’s gap up wasn’t any likelier to extend, still likely at least to fill the gap back down to Friday’s close, potentially down to 1269.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s test of 16.90 was exceeded Monday morning to probe above 17.00. Holding a test of the decline’s 16.50 target on Friday does allow a bottom to form, although a test of 16.60 as support would help to make a recovery more credible.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s shallow range hovered just above the 151-18 pullback objective that would help to fully form a bottom. Its test remains likely, although not already resuming Friday’s dip does make a rally effort likely within the next two sessions. Closing above 152-20 would be credible for extending higher.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s break wasn’t from a multi-session range, so Monday wasn’t capable of confirming it. So, ranging narrowly intraday — instead of extending down — doesn’t reject the downside momentum. A recovery should be obvious Tuesday to avoid lower lows.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending down Friday under the 2.89 target already had prevented Monday from recovering. Fresh lows were likely, but closing positive could have then suggested a bottom was forming. The morning’s fresh lows down to 2.83 consolidated through the afternoon but did not recover.
Mid-day Update… Still steady.
Fluctuating at the morning’s lows.
The post-open dive to 2544.00 has been tested once. RSIs diverged positively on a dip to 2543.25 that reacted up to 2547.00. But no higher. And that was into the morning’s morning’s bias environment exit.
The noon hour dipped back down into a narrow 2545.00-2546.00 range. The Columbus holiday is still taking a toll on participation and volume.
Nevertheless, there remains potential today down to this morning’s 2541.00 bias objective. Any lower could extend down to 2535.00. Back above 2547.50 would start to signal fresh highs, regardless of unfinished business above — especially when there is unfinished business above at 2552.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 10, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No high-profile or influential econ reports are scheduled Tuesday. And this particular Fed speaker doesn’t have a reliable track record for influencing price action.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2550.25 | 2548.25 |
| …would target | 2555.50 | 2553.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2545.00 | 2543.00 |
| …would target | 2538.50 | 2536.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Not the slowest or the steadiest.
Post-open plunge is settling in.
The gradual overnight recovery had probed the gap back up to Thursday’s 2449.75 close by 3 ticks. But the gap wasn’t filled intraday. Not until an opening dip was recovered just high enough to get it done. Just long enough, too. Immediately reacting down slid to 2544.00.
The setup I had described would have done that after probing last week’s high, and not just coming to within 1 tick. So, the pattern is the same, but more pessimistic. Sellers haven’t refueled to their potential, making a shallower low more capable of holding.
Shallower, like 2541.00 instead of 2535.00. A retest of Friday’s 2541.50 low of Friday’s would have room down to 2535.00. Having held a test of the 2549.00 bias-up signal, this morning’s no-bias environment has put into play an offsetting test of the 2541.00 bias-down signal — which today’s low-volume environment will help to hold.
Bounces meanwhile have room up to 2547.50 while keeping alive the downside attraction. Probing under 2543.00 would allow lowering the buy signal.