Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Slow and steady ahead.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s reaction down to the pre-open Employment Situation report had plenty of room to expend selling pressure without it damaging the chart pattern, thanks to Thursday morning’s substantial rally. The degree of selling pressure was non-arbitrary, testing the 2543.00 pullback limit down to 2541.50. And the duration of selling pressure was relevant, having been expended through the noon hour. Ultimately, the pullback limit held and the afternoon bounced back up to the morning’s 2547.50 high as was expected, albeit stopping pessimistically short of filling the gap back up to Thursday’s 2550.00 close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s choppy start soon resumed Friday afternoon’s recovery up to 2549.50. Flat-to-lower ranging through Europe’s opens has returned back to the overnight high, and now resumed the rally. The gap back up to last Thursday’s close is being pierced by 1 tick.
If, then…
A lot of selling pressure was expended Friday morning, both in duration and in degree, without reversing the trend down. Still testing 2543.00 into the noon hour does keep alive some vulnerability to probing lower, which we’ll anticipate if the overnight bounce is rejected back into negative territory. Its origin would be from a position of strength, having failed to exploit the opportunity for trending down Friday, and now being a low-volume session due to the Columbus Day holiday. Meanwhile, the gap back up to Thursday’s close has yet to be filled, which would be done on the way to “unfinished business above” at 2552.00. Closing higher would qualify as day-9 of a a potential Up/Down-crash setup, as quarterly earnings start.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2552.00 would be likely to trigger the 2549.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2545.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s Morning Market or it’s a little Pastime little maybe 15-20 minutes late here this morning but we’ll see you shouldn’t be allowed to cover it shouldn’t be a lot going on today you would think today is Columbus Day a Government Bond markets are closed postal delivery in the United States is closed banks are closed typically a slow all day one of the falls slow holiday along with the Jewish holidays in this particular instance the market is at highs here’s MDX eking out a new I on Friday all three back in sync eking out a new high into last week actually having difficulty not showing a safety or rotation out of the speculative that is represented by the nq’s as far as money goes yes also last week holding on to them at least right now then stopping a little bit more confirming the indicated and we have earnings coming into new eyes with volume on Friday the reaction to the employment without even beginning to threaten reversing the trend down took advantage of it took a lot of advantage of it keep the door open for available to the market from a bullish perspective on Friday because it would have been too deep coming from 2550 but now having held 2543 a deeper pull back would be if it held 2535 would be still potentially potentially because it’s delayed it’s from a position of strength so it’s not going to get confirmation Thursday Thursday 2549 to avoid triggering to put into play and off sitting test of the 41 by down signal we’ll take it from there later in the morning or through the open if that seems to be the case is the holiday so trending will be difficult other markets starting with currencies and I continued identify this upside caught limitation but inflection point that would reverse momentum up in the Aussie just to point out there’s that much room for a bounce without it yet getting traction will see if it’s taken advantage of it all it was an attempt to take advantage of it on Wednesday that was reversed down and we now have two consecutive lower closes so that’s a confirmed break out from a multi-session range which means an eventual lower close is required before if that doesn’t mean I can’t be a first lower clothes out of the way before we can give better benefit of the doubt to more substantial recovery otherwise right now I would sell strength but we’re going to blow through it basically because had been developing in gaps down only no intraday sewing so that optimism and pessimism prospective potentially so there’s 132 gapping down to it finally getting some down and then Friday again despite breaking lower maintaining to break again bounce back to 132 probing it a little but being that is resistance we also have them through Wednesday closed Thursday break being a break from it Friday being a confirmation of it of the break out so there is in the pound and eventual lower clothes required here’s a better picture and you can see we’re looking for 12091 2898 a minimum Looney there’s that much room for bounce basically 8030 without it because I don’t see that happening anytime soon 1760 being in the rain and then Friday not enough to call it a pivot reversal key reversal still needs follow through this morning maybe a little aggressive to quickly right up to resistance 1288 2788 close up of 1287 1288 and I will give this every benefit of the doubt that momentum is reversed up or at least pull backs will hold fullbacks 12:30 9:50 12:50 with a hold from a close-up of 1287 88th and meanwhile that is resistance be careful if considering a really wanting to get long which I’m not opposed to because this is a longer-term bottom seems to be forming and gold just keep in mind that what we’re not looking for a retest in Friday’s low gapping up this morning is a little too aggressive to quickly it’s the same thing with silver which had unfinished business outstanding outstanding and did close after having filled at Target or have completed the target benefit of the doubt but it still looks like about him is trying to form Long Pond to react negatively to payrolls to extend down to or hold down to 5108 so pretty thoroughly tested not so while we do have this likelihood of extending higher bottoming I would like to see a little deeper than just a little consolidation I would like to see a little more backing and filling as opposed to very quickly reversing up having said that while backing and filling 5119 e 118 would be helpful if this gets carried away without leaving a gap outstanding doesn’t look like we’re going to be wrapping up here and 20 5314 to be recovered so start closing and really have to give because of the close on Wednesday so Friday was not a break will have to look for a but basically it’s certainly the end of a range of the range of noise under that last week’s ranging and by the way to reverse three return to its Target filling the Gap back to 289 did not hold it made a new low close it’s not a pattern that bottoms on Monday when this pattern develops through Friday so we’ll have to take a look at it at the close alright any questions go ahead and post them in the chart room where I will see you at the open good luck today .
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2551.00 | 2549.00 |
| …would target | 2556.00 | 2554.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2543.00 | 2541.00 |
| …would target | 2537.00 | 2535.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thanks to Thursday morning’s substantial rally, plenty of room had been created to expend selling pressure without it damaging the chart pattern. Friday’s reaction down to the pre-open Employment Situation report held tests of the 2543.00 pullback limit. That’s a reasonable amount of selling pressure to expend without even threatening to reverse the trend down.
That said, the timing of Friday morning’s low – that is, still testing 2543.00 into the noon hour without yet recovering — does keep alive some vulnerability to probing lower. But the origin of probing lower would now still be from a position of strength, having failed to exploit the opportunity for trending down Friday.
Meanwhile, Thursday’s “unfinished business above” at 2552.00 remains outstanding to help attract price higher. A 7-day streak of higher closes has been interrupted by a pullback, which requires Monday to overcome if the Up/Down-crash setup will remain intact.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
There is NO weekend Saturday Review until next week.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite spiking down to fresh lows in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report, the morning recovered back above 1.1760. The action is reminiscent of ongoing behavior at the same precise level during August, before the interim rally that has now been retraced. But there is no bullish reason to have retraced the entire raly.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The knee-jerk reaction to Friday’s payrolls was a mini-plunge to fresh lows. It wasn’t being attempted from a position of weakness, as the 1280.50 target area had continued holding as support. In fact, it was recovered entirely by the afternoon. Almost any higher close Monday would suggest a bottom is forming.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 16.50 target was finally tested in reaction to Friday’s payrolls report probed by a dime and then recovered entirely into positive territory through the morning. The low’s retest isn’t required, but probably won’t be avoided without extending higher through Monday’s close.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s knee-jerk reaction to monthly payrolls was to probe the next lower objective at 151-08/151-11. Its anticipated reaction back up stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Thursday’s close. Closing negative Friday to fulfill the outstanding objective would enable a pullback to 151-18 would help to finish forming a bottom.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s gap down under Wednesday’s 49.75 low ended the week at a new relative low, making near-term recovery unlikely without another fresh low. So, greeting the new week bouncing would likely fail.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Filling the gap back down to Tuesday’s 2.89 close was already likely. But gapping down to it Friday only extended down below it. A second consecutive lower close on Monday could prevent any near-term bottoming, let alone recovery.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 9, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Banks are closed for the Columbus Day holiday in the U.S. No mail delivery, and government bond cash markets don’t trade. But stock markets are open, potentially for the last off lower-volume sessions that have defined this rally, if not also enabled it.
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET