Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Anchored.
New highs through two timing windows.
Remember that narrow 2-point overnight range? This morning was something else entirely. and that post-open 4-1/2 point dip? Retraced entirely, and pales in comparison
to the 11-point rally that its recovery became.
All this morning. Probing new highs — and not by a little, thanks to starting the rally early. All within expectations. Also within expectations? Vulnerability to an afternn if this afternoon does reverse down, this morning’s rally is too steep of a trajectory to contain the ultimate high.
But noN-bias just triggered, so there is no higher target in-play. And this morning’s rally above its 2509.50 bias-up signal originated too late to trigger. It is “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced, often also to its 10:15 print which was 2508.00.
This being a Friday, not already reversing down as the bias environment lapses would instead be vulnerable to extending higher into the close. A meaningful portion of market participants is about to start leaving early for the Yom Kippur holiday, and thinner volume can have volatile effects at these heights.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 2, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s econ calendar is unusually busy for a Monday. Both with high-profile AND influential items. And that’s just the morning, with staggered post-open reports. The afternoon’s Fed speaker keeps things interesting.
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2517.25 | 2514.50 |
| …would target | 2522.00 | 2519.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2511.00 | 2508.50 |
| …would target | 2505.50 | 2502.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Warning shot.
Post-open dip is recovered, for now.
As was suspected, the narrow overnight range wouldn’t bear any resemblance to this morning’s action. Which explains the second minute launching 4-minute 3-point surge to 2509.25.
It also explains the 4-1/2 point reaction down to 2504.75. Actually, not even a 3-point drop, once it finally got underway. (The open’s surge had quickly settled into a consolidation.)
It also explains the reaction’s recovery, back up to 2509.25. So far.
So far, because we’ve also suspected this morning would probe new highs. Gapping up would have ensured it, and also made the probe durable. Not gapping up could still produce new highs, and become very vulnerable to reversing back down.
The post-open reaction down could be a glimpse of that reversal down. Reversing is always difficult on Fridays. Reversing down is more difficult — not only from an intraday high, but from a multi-session high.
The past two Fridays threatened to collapse, and recovered instead. The same is entirely possible today. But look out below if not, if unusually slower afternoon volume prevents absorbing another dip back into the range, and the post-open dip was only a warning shot across the bow.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… No excuses.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open was greeted by a late break down to 2499.00 that neutralized Wednesday’s “unfinished business below.” Trending back up to 2508.25 peaked as the afternoon bias environment was lapsing. The last 60-90 minutes ranged choppily sideways, still under Wednesday’s high. The intraday uptrending inside day suggests its sponsorship was weak-handed, especially for not producing new highs despite having neutralized unfinished business below.
Overnight action’s new info…
The narrow 2-point overnight range between 2505.50-2507.50 is otherwise meaningless, except in context. The market is hovering pessimistically short of its highs, having stopped short of the highs the prior day.
If, then…
Having failed to gain traction yesterday, only gapping up today above prior highs would be credible for trending higher today. The proximity leaves no excuse for the rally not to try, unless it’s preparing another downleg. Flat-to-higher without gapping up could still temporarily probe new highs intraday. Without gapping up sufficiently, resolving down initially or eventually is likely, for the same reason that rallying Thursday was unlikely — because Wednesday’s new highs had reversed to close under prior highs. Gapping up isn’t currently indicated, but isn’t yet too late or too far away to produce, and would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher. Not gapping up would keep the door open to a downleg before the close. Regardless, being the quarter’s last trading day and sitting at the highs, I suspect that the narrow overnight range bears any resemblance to what the morning has in store. The afternoon could be more subdued as many traders will likely exit early for evening Yom Kippur services.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2508.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2509.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2502.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2501.25 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
okay good morning and welcome it’s Friday it’s time for Friday’s morning market tour it looks like we’ve got nothing going on overnight I suspect that is totally irrelevant to the intraday I mean this is just a two-point narrow range head of the weekend sure a lot of Fridays look like this sure but this Friday happens to be the end of the quarter the sessions are the quarters last trading day so at least for the month on a monthly basis we wouldn’t expect much stagnation and we’re not expecting it today that seems pretty deceptive in other words that’s one reason another reason is that the market is basically sitting at its highs sitting at Tais Wednesday probed by you know if this were an expiration week we would call this passively bullish or bearish for having probe III multi-session high and closed under it couple of the bells and whistles are actually wouldn’t apply here we wouldn’t be able to apply them so but the point is buyers are weak handed but sellers are patient so not that the overnight range isn’t able to break higher but if it’s not gapping up it’s probably not going to sustain an intra date of trend of any sort yesterday was an inside the initially fulfilled selling pressure that was outstanding couldn’t get out of there so that’s another indication that I really can’t dismiss the potential for guys can’t dismiss the potential for probing whether or not even even if we going to be sustainable opening possible of course but not rejected coming out of the bias environment that it gets difficult to reject them regardless really fighting the cell signal or at least but the bouncer basically that broke out on Wednesday wasn’t confirmed on Thursday does not dismissed today the Euro originated from so it’s just a question I think of where this bounce Peaks here’s another gap-fill at 1:19 being attacked and then again which has produced its eventual third lower class was acquired by a confirmed Breakout but it has left outstanding unfinished business below at this Wednesday’s Gap Town so likely to be only temporary gold has a shot at having printed aloe the minimum of adjective was 12 8150 1280 5012 7950 and there it was tested overnight 12823 was tested overnight last night head of yesterday’s open it hasn’t actually been rejected usually if that’s going to be a fresh loaf of the trend and extended friend is going to be afraid it’s going to be a sustainable especially when it disappears intraday and other words when it doesn’t even show up usually they will have recovered quite a bit of a bit yesterday waiting for 1660 1660 isn’t tested today then at least 1650 becomes likely but that is a good for Wednesday Thursday objective congestion maybe even close above Thursday is low or perhaps to hold the retest so keep that in mind this is not at all that is the shaped don’t need a little bit of time actually 37308 good luck with that for a while all of them all of them dad to 293 alright I got any questions anything else to look at anything else to expand on let me know I’ll be back in the truck before the open or if there’s any relevant price action don’t forget we’ve got a Saturday review tomorrow good luck today.