Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2512.25 | 2509.75 |
| …would target | 2518.50 | 2516.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2503.75 | 2501.25 |
| …would target | 2498.50 | 2496.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s buyers didn’t need to be weak-handed. The prior session had probed new highs, and overnight action had neutralized “unfinished business below.” And it was neutralized by a break lower that originated too late to be credible for extending down. There was no attraction above, yet Thursday was biased upward, trending up intraday.
Inside days that are biased upward are often the product of weak-handed sponsorship. Their resolution is often to reverse down, having expended buying pressure the prior day without gaining traction for the effort. Avoiding a resolution down depends essentially on attracting reinforcements, which should be obvious by gapping up Thursday.
Resolving down is likelier, for the same reason that rallying Thursday was unlikely — because Wednesday’s new highs were reversed to close under prior highs. We’ll still give a gap up a benefit of the doubt for extending higher, but trending down is likely if not gapping up.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already having fulfilled its objective to test 1.1745 on Tuesday, extending the decline Wednesday morning to attack the next lower objective at 1.1760 was reversed to close higher on the day. That extended slightly into Thursday’s open, which ranged narrowly through the day up to 1.1850. .
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight fulfilled potential to test 1280.50. The probe under Wednesday’s lows was recovered by Thursday’s open. Ranging sideways all day doesn’t equate to stability, and another intraday fresh low is likely so long as 1298.50 isn’t recovered.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows overnight touched the prior low at 16.70 and bounced ahead of Thursday’s open. The reaction didn’t become a recovery that would otherwise hold 17.00, still likely to test at least 16.60.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Finally testing 153-14 Wednesday trended down intraday to avoid forming a bottom. Extending down overnight gapped down to test fresh lows Thursday attacking 152-00. A second consecutive lower close from the multi-session range at 154-30 requires an eventual third lower close. In this pattern, immediately fulfilling the lower requirement would be bearish, where bouncing first would allow a bottom to begin forming.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Surging before Thursday’s open gapped up above prior sessions’ highs to 52.65 resistance. Resistance triggered a reversal down under prior sessions’ lows to test 51.25. The outside day left unfinished business above at Thursday’s opening gap. Testing it before extending down to 51.65 would be bearish.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Dec, which trades at a 9-cent premium to Oct]… Greeting Thursday’s EIA from a position of weakness didn’t prevent an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up. But that was after having gapped down from Wednesday’s close at 3.07 resistance. And the knee-jerk up snapped back down to fill the gap from Tuesday’s 3.01 close. Now a bottom can form by closing above 3.08, targeting 3.17 and higher.
Mid-day Update… Eke.
Firming into the afternoon.
This morning’s opening surge from 2501.00 had taken some time before extending higher. But it extended higher. The noon hour extended higher, too. Not much, but it extended higher. This afternoon’s 2507.00 bias-up signal is being tested.
Extending higher wasn’t required. And now it’s also difficult. Still testing 2507.00 at both 1:20 and 1:30 has triggered noN-bias. Which is to say that neither bias-up nor no-bias triggered. No upside attraction, and no requirement to hold resistance.
Often, the noN-bias will behave like no-bias and hold resistance. Often, noN-bias will hover at its bias-up signal to break through it when no longer no-bias trending.
Hovering at the bias signal through the bias environment lapsing often rallies, anyway. If the setup reacts down, then it should not be produced by strong hands.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 29, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s post-open calendar is busy, high-profile, and reliable for influencing price action. The post-open PMI is released privately to its institutional subscribers and usually duplicates its reaction when released publicly. Afternoon volume may dwindle more so than usual for a Friday as many participants leave early to ensure timely arrival at evening Yom Kippur services.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
11:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET