Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 22, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Three Fed speakers appear throughout Friday, amid at least one reliably influential post-open econ report.
John Williams Speaks
6:00 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks
9:30 AM ET
*PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
1:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2506.50 | 2504.50 |
| …would target | 2511.25 | 2509.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2499.25 | 2497.50 |
| …would target | 2494.50 | 2492.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Getting in a little exercise.
Aggressive dip holds the range.
Bouncing since Europe’s opens had retraced 61.8% of the overnight slide, hovering there until the open shook price loose. Almost immediately sliding nearly 4 
points to test 2501.00 was unable to recover. Then a steeper slide of more than 5 points tested 2497.00.
All of which developed during the first half-hour. Price action since then has ranged choppily under the 2500.00 bias-down signal, which triggered. The 2493.25 bias-down target is in-play.
The opening low was just retested while RSIs made higher lows. Higher oversold lows, which still require a retest despite currently bouncing. The bounce is testing the 2500.00 bias-down signal as resistance, and has room to probe above it without suggesting momentum may be reversing up.
The open’s slides seem to have been knee-jerk reaction to headlines of important announcements to be made by important people, implying escalation of the N. Korea situation. The bounce seems to be in reaction to a headline specifying those announcements would regard sanctions, presumably not anything militaristic.
This sort of behavior is typical for today’s lower volume session. A catalyst can be productive, but only for so long if not followed by another catalyst. And another catalyst is probably the only way today does more than retest yesterday’s 2494.00 low, the 2493.25 bias-down target, or room for noise down to 2490.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Ranging shallowly.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s early probe of fresh highs up to 2507.25 and its reaction down formed the basis for a topping pattern. Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC plunge to 2494.00 as the bias environment lapsed tried to complete it. Fulfilling the morning’s 2498.00 bias objective and “lower prior highs” at 2495.50 from last week’s consolidation helped to absorb the dip. Dwindling participation helped, too, as the balance of the session rallied to 2506.75. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Was Wednesday’s last rally sponsored by strong-handed buyers, or was it due to the prior drop’s sponsorship relieving their pressure? Oversold RSIs at the low already suggest the latter. Now so does the overnight reaction, which slid relentlessly into Europe’s opens. Relentlessly, but relatively shallowly, only testing what had been Wednesday afternoon’s last buy signal at 2502.00. Another bounce underway since then is testing 2505.00, retracing 61.8% of the overnight drop
If, then…
Participation is going to be depressed today. Thursday’s volume traditionally dips during Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year. Its influence will be somewhat similar to yesterday’s difficulty at attracting sponsorship for trending. Somewhat. Attempts at probing fresh highs are still possible, as are aggressive retracements to the lower-end of the range. Be aware that difficulty can cut either way, and also inhibit attracting sponsorship for counter-trending, or for stopping a probe that has extended through a relevant timing window.
L’Shana Tovah to subscribers celebrating the New Year!
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2502.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2500.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2504.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2506.50 bias-up signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning it is Thursday good morning and it’s Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market to her happy New Year Rosh Hashanah if you’re celebrating the new year did you ask New Year Happy New Year not everyone celebrating the new year does so out of the market but a lot to do and so traditionally this is one of the slower days of the year slower and participation and so perhaps that is attributable to yesterday’s FMC plunge does he plan to have fun see being retraced entirely entirely too high didn’t do anything of course it was as we’re discussing at the time by last week’s upper end of its consolidation when I called Lower prioritize are a size of gotten over sold so just the potential for that to have captured the fomc plunge was already pretty substantial if in fact that is a product of weak hands because of context says that the sponsorship is just that the week or hands it takes pretty much all available strong hands to hold or a size so the upside is weak hands the downside is strong hands or stronger interesting yesterday started a new thing of leaving unfinished business below below outstanding through the clothes couple days ago that it was from the morning and in the afternoon just as difficult as it will be trending being sustainable break but that doesn’t mean that I it’s not impossible if sellers don’t mount a defense which will look at the moment not by the way influence and that is inhibiting but inhibiting just as difficult to gather or to a mass to attract counter-trend sponsorship as it is to attract sponsorship but the dividing line for the difference is split by the influence of being too high so that is possible otherwise it is possible to extend not even through sponsorship as it is an opportunity to exploit if it can get done lack of volume create a higher level. That would neutralize the attraction but creates a higher low anyway and if that doesn’t hold that it actually probes it by a more substantial amount that it might have been proved otherwise and by the way last thing I want to play it out as far as the day outside it is this upper end of the consolidation that now that it’s been tested its lower prioritized have been invoked they’ve been used and typically that means their support no longer exist which typically means if it’s retested its objective becomes the lower end of the range and not just a touch the lower end of the range of the range but to break under lower prioritize prior lives that’s the attraction next usually here’s the thing with the lack of volume I just keep in mind it’s certainly possible that we testing your essays Willow street races 61.8% into that range in other words 9191 25 becomes more of an attraction so we’ll certainly be looking for different levels along the way like that alright any questions for the open hasn’t really been much delay in responding to the objective that was yesterday the new jerk reaction it was certainly seems like pessimism but productive not going to doubt it and it certainly got the job done and now probing lower overnight back to or even end up waiting for with all these setup which incorporate the hovering instead of bouncing or recovering from a probe of it so almost any lower level at this point would be credible for extending down extending the filling a couple of gaps in the likeliest objective is 132 132 being where the last cell signal hit its minimum objective surround so far it is acting up but instead of a much deeper the Euro as well the most obvious today most obvious indication that the downside momentum remains intact and finally the enemy this is just a great case study all of these dips probes of French Lowe’s at continued to recover back into the range and this is what I was pointing out every day that’s all well and good for undermining sellers or seeming to or at least positioning the pattern for the opportunity to recover but it has to be exploited it has to actually be triggered has to be productive and close above some relevant level and this continually did not and every relevant relevant continue that was basically up trending support those broken fire lives that continue to hold his resistance it only it only prevent or only undermines all that buying pressure that is absorbing the probes of fresh Lowe’s and so if there’s going to be another opportunity to Rally it’s going to have to originate from lower levels so right now I would expect bounces if there are any 8970 8970 maybe 90 maybe we get to 90 to maintain the downtrend the brakes momentum silver and gold both reacted and two shallowly the session ahead of the news so it was too late for recovering 1730 on a closing basis ahead of Wednesday it didn’t happen so Wednesday is it wasn’t it wasn’t reading the news from the position of strength it would have been likely to absorb what is a very risky area and in order to launch a pretty big rally and now it’s being tested again Lower the signal it is still the news from above quickly that it wouldn’t be and it wasn’t so until then anything else today wasn’t really supposed to I’m expecting this to hold to lease produce corrective bounce this is really not fully-formed Head and Shoulders or was an opportunity to complete a head and shoulders with the right shoulder Bounce It Never developed so as such we got a couple candidates for the left shoulder weather it’s this pivotal High prior to the actual high or if that’s all tributed To The Head And this is the left shoulder let’s start with that one first this is downtrending to the resistance it’s a little more difficult on this one very shallow retest barely touching the interim low but it’s intersection would be something like this so I’m not lowering the bicycle the signal that thing up for the trend reversing up I’m also not limiting the reversing up to anything so shallow at this point having extended down so deeply about him would be much more productive but having said that there’s this much do you have to actually see a test of that prior low crude oil today rolled forward coverage to November from December there was a little fresh high in here yesterday still no I are close and so you can see more clearly on November that is a topping pattern still needs to trigger but essentially any fresh low close says the top is in and really at this point I just closed another 5010 just closing on to 5010 basis November would already indicators suggest at least momentum reversing down so what about greeting it’s not being greeted from a position of strength because it’s in a range but also not a position of weakness there’s been one passive and closing under it just in time for yesterday’s clothes but it’s going down now it’s go back to good luck today.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2508.50 | 2506.50 |
| …would target | 2513.25 | 2511.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2502.00 | 2500.00 |
| …would target | 2495.25 | 2493.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.