Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s early probe of fresh highs and its reaction down had fulfilled that much of the bearish template, the same bearish template that could have applied Tuesday. 
Anyway, the open’s spike up also fulfilled the obligatory probe of fresh highs that had become obligatory by having hovered pessimistically short of piercing prior highs.
Holding the early probe also held the 2507.00 bias-up signal which put into play an offsetting test of the 2498.00 bias-down signal. Becoming “unfinished business below” may have enabled 2498.00 to attract price down later. The FOMC policy statement’s reaction eventually slid to 2494.00.
The low also tested the upper-end of last week’s narrow consolidation. Its “lower prior highs” at 2494.50 offered support coming out of the afternoon bias environment that eventually attacked the open’s high to within 3 ticks at 2506.50. That was only ticks above unchanged, and only reached when the positions-squaring window was lapsing. Not being very decisive makes the close not very reliable for signaling higher highs.
Meanwhile, Thursday’s volume is likely to dip as is usual for Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year. Even if we knew with complete certainty the pattern would resolve down, contracting volume could allow price to probe higher. Even if only intraday.
L’Shana Tovah to subscribers celebrating the New Year!
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending higher again overnight had reacted down ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC events, testing the Pivotal Uptrending Support that has defined the past week’s rally. And yet another reaction up probed a fresh high at 1.2092. The FOMC reaction plunged back into Monday’s range at 1.1985, Extending down immediately isn’t required, but 1.1945 is the next lower attraction.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding 1310.50 as support again Tuesday wasn’t the most bullish position for greeting Wednesday’s FOMC events. Already closing above 1318.50 would have been more bullish, but it was only tested overnight, and held intraday ahead of the post-close news. The knee-jerk reaction spiked down $11 to test this week’s lows around 1308.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming overnight had probed the 17.30 buy signal that had avoided triggering Tuesday. But extending to test 17.50 didn’t prevent a reaction down from attacking 17.25.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s open wasn’t greeted optimistically, as price continued testing 154-04 as support. Its test probed its lowest levels down to 153-29. Not yet recovering any relevant resistance ahead of the FOMC events Knee-jerk reaction to the news probed slightly lower momentarily.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward today to Nov, which trades at a 40-cent premium to Oct…] Overnight and morning action remained within Tuesday’s range. But Wednesday’s open gapped up to Monday’s close and the morning extended back up to last week’s high, where a higher close would signal the rally had resumed
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging had started giving way overnight, with plenty of room below to expend selling pressure without it damaging the bullish chart. Testing 3.10 Wednesday still had room to 3.07 or 3.02 before suggesting momentum reversing down.
Mid-day Update… Waiting for the news. And the other news.
FOMC events dead ahead.
The open’s tests of fresh highs and of the morning’s 2507.00 bias-up signal held, putting into play an offsetting test of the morning’s 2498.00 bias-down signal. It was attacked down to 2502.50, making it “unfinished business below.”
Meanwhile, the relatively narrow range persists as this afternoon’s FOMC events get nearer. Probing in either direction is possible. Probing in both directions is possible, too. Either or both probe could reach double-digits before reversing, if reversing.
And the reaction to the policy statement could be undone during Yellen’s Q&A. Especially if initial trending were to probe either end of this afternoon’s 2498.00-2507.00 no-bias environment.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 21, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Several high-profile reports are released Thursday morning. But only two are reliable for triggering price reaction. Regardless, noticeable price reaction would likely be duplicated on the subsequent reports. Meanwhile, volume will be lower along with participation, as the Jewish New Year Rosh Hashana is celebrated.
Mario Draghi speaks
time unknown
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Survey
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2509.00 | 2507.00 |
| …would target | 2515.25 | 2513.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2500.00 | 2498.00 |
| …would target | 2494.00 | 2492.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.