Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2509.50 | 2507.25 |
| …would target | 2515.50 | 2513.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2503.00 | 2501.00 |
| …would target | 2497.75 | 2495.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bullish influence.
Open surges straight up.
The 2504.50 overnight high’s reaction down had extended pre-open to touch 2500.00. That was still above Friday’s high. A post-open blip-down retested the pre-open low, 
piercing this morning’s 2500.25 bias-up signal by 3 ticks. It was recovered almost as quickly
Bouncing back above 2501.50 indicated the slide was reversing back up. The setup had no timing or behavioral requirements, but it was immediate and substantial. Finally hesitating upon touching 2506.00, the surge held up long enough to trigger bias-up.
The 2507.00 bias-up target was attacked to within 4 ticks. Coming within 3 ticks is optimal if not also standard for neutralizing its attraction. But being a new high, we won’t consider it “unfinished business above” if left outstanding.
Meanwhile, the bullish WedEX influence on this morning’s action remains intact. It’s not required to produce constant uptrending, only to absorb and recover any dips. The morning need not end at a high point, so a pullback within the post-open range would still fulfill the signal. Otherwise, a little more complexity to the current pullback would allow another buy signal to form.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Still upticking.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s post-close plunge was a reaction to N. Korea actually launching the missile that pre-open rumors had suggested it was preparing to launch. Plunge after plunge had been recovered to maintain the ongoing narrow range, the rally’s longest stretch of such narrow proportions. No longer fearing a missile, Friday morning action focused only on resuming the rally’s trajectory as it probed new highs attacking 2497.00. The bullish WedEX signal carried the afternoon higher to 2498.00. That fulfilled the “unfinished business above” of Monday’s confirmed breakout which had required an eventual new high close. And it created similar, new unfinished business for being a new trend high close on a Friday.
Overnight action’s new info…
Immediately extending higher, Friday’s post-close action touched 2500.00. Sunday night’s Globex open immediately extended higher, too, touching 2504.50. That held up through Europe’s opens but extended no higher, instead softening to attack 2501.00.
If, then…
This morning’s focus is on the bullish WedEX signal. Its influence Friday afternoon makes it likelier to also influence Monday morning’s post-open action. This is regardless of the opening print were to gapping in either direction. Gapping up above all prior intraday highs could create another piece of unfinished business attraction above, which would help to keep the rally entrenched if its only current outstanding requirement for a new high close were fulfilled today. Regardless of all this bullish and potentially bullish influence — if not because of it — note that trending down through the open would suggest a bearish morning is muscling itself in.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2501.00 would be likely to trigger the 2500.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2495.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
okay good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s morning market tour quick update here and alright so just to refresh where we are how we got here it actually follows pretty tight range for four sessions and it’s even including Friday afternoons sort of Lift-Off sit certainly extended overnight but we didn’t know that then so in this maybe three and a half sessions in any case just extremely narrow range the Rally’s longest stretch of such narrow proportion actually so and a high and it’s not rejecting a high so we know we’re going to resolve a new highs even if there is a downdraft in there we’ve got the context but it doesn’t it just extends its expiration so we’re not expecting a trend change we’ve got a bullish wed x passively bullets bullets wed x so we’re expecting to Trend up or at least recover if there’s a dip Friday afternoon we Trend up and now we’ve got when we had Mondays breakout confirmed requiring an eventual higher clothes which we got sorta but not really because the post confirmation higher clothes was within the confirmations right we just didn’t get a lot of movement until Friday afternoon really or Friday morning it pierced fresh I and this is a missile flying or missiles actually being rumored and then flying in the market still recovering from Depp’s from plunges post close pre-open not a market wanted to go down it’s now getting one wish for Friday afternoon extended higher gradually into the clothes might call it restrained optimism to the degree that there is optimism or pessimism into expiration but never the last that’s the whole point is that wed x indicator that said bullish into the weekend Friday afternoon and out of the weekend Monday morning and here it is Monday morning already well maintenance after Friday’s close price extended higher to 2500 and Sunday nights open immediately extended higher as well to 2504 50 so the 2500 and later revised 2501 likely objective met being tested or at active support now so we’ve got a lot of bullishness playing out I mean there’s nothing in this is just a big caveat it literally is that there’s nothing pointing down right now there’s some things that can point down when timing arrives like they have any 15 minutes of volatility could Trend down that wouldn’t be great there in 15 minutes about Tillery could be exited under the overnight low under 99 and it’s not the overnight low print but that’s the relevant print under 99 having probed above prioritize overnight exiting the open under the overnight low which in this case is 2499 that would Point down holding a test of the bicep signal F signal 2501 isn’t maintained through the 10:15 right now though the only have prevents downdraft in the intro so just to be aware of those possibilities to the downside but otherwise looking for a bullish morning and by the way if the open gapps up if it if the opening print is above all prior intraday High’s which really 2498 is the prior intraday High just gabbing up above 2498 itself could leave the session with some unfinished business above some more unfinished business of because that Gap up will want to be retested from Below just not looking for any kind of widespread or sustained itself to begin right Euro I’m surprised abruptly reversed direction but that’s just a matter of having expected that the low let the target of the pull back that was created by having failed to resume the rally from this point putting into play and objective under one 1851 1845 that was meant in a couple days just how roughly that has reverse Direction but that’s what the pattern called for that it would be done with the pool back at this point it was done with the pool back at Consolidated instead of retesting that has already resume the rally we’ve got pivotal up training support that’s being honored being influential in fact it’s interesting that it doesn’t we’re getting a little more I guess it shouldn’t be surprising they were getting a little more optimistic here avoiding the little uptrending support before extending higher on a pull back that’s all done and remember the ultimate objective here is to it well the minimum of at least that’s from the prior Friday overnight that’s the euro which was tested by breaking getting back in that channel is now the only path higher or the only signal Thursday morning so this does allow lowering the bicycle there’s less to recover we’re going to stay at 1334 for the day as the Buy Signal still want to see 1340 50 or cupboard but it’s no longer I mean it’s not as critical as it was until now now that 13 1850 has actually been tested intraday silver meanwhile if gold is back to be testing 13 1850 then Silver’s probably back to testing well not exactly it never did get a more thorough test of 1760 done that wasn’t required while I was fighting the minimum test of 1770 and so now it has gone on to test 1760 that does allow lowering the bicycle is but I’m not going to lower it yet it’s probably going to be lowered to 1780 will have to see where the actual intraday low print is that 1790 is is essentially the bicycle otherwise really doesn’t have any unfinished business below this slow Thursday’s shake up this slow or I should say chopping narrow range at the low doesn’t really mean anything as far as increasing or decreasing the likelihood of recovering or of extending down there is no unfinished business Below in the service of a pullback it’s no less barrage to just suddenly resume the decline this is essentially the stop is 15520 specially on a closing basis so what would be there as well though is to go ahead and complete a head and shoulders top with one more up leg shallow or at least not complete just a replacement crude oil choppy flat dry drowning didn’t really nothing really hear the requirement from the prior week’s confirmed break out that detoured into a deeper pull back has been fulfilled it was fulfilled not just by their clothes on Wednesday because it was still in the confirmation range but by Thursday’s close and Thursdays clothes having fulfilled that this kind of what I was referring to earlier in the es where they’re in for different reasons there was a new High clothes outstanding to do I close was fulfilled but by a session that Gap above all Pryor High so even if there were an immediate not even if there were that wants to be wrested from below after testing the prior range so I don’t have a cell signal working because of that work no cell signal and finally Natural Gas and has no .
Saturday Review’s recording (for 9/16/17) …Under the hood concerns.
Bullish WedEX. New trend high close on a Friday. Expiration. FOMC policy statement AND quarterly Q&A. Rosh Hashana holiday. Rally, or top? These aren’t the only influences on this week’s price action. I put them all into the Yahtzee tumbler to see this week’s possible templates, and what specific price action will tell us which template is tracking… P.S. The 3-index comparison must be seen to appreciate a concern that is suddenly developing.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
ARNA, FEYE, AMZN, FB, NFLX, TSLA, EFX, BCS
okay good morning and welcome I apologize for the little late start but it is Saturday and it’s time for this weekend Saturday review and as you can see were higher in fact es extended after yesterday’s Cash session close the cash session clothes that equated to 2490 750 having touched 98 added those couple of extra points post close the maintenance as I said when the breakout was was confirmed at some point this leg this structure here here here at 2,500 and eventually 2500 2501 written not this early all over it but in a little spots that I check so we got there you don’t see it on the intraday chart but it has printed and it is going to be greeting sort of Monday’s open first of all it is just post clothes action that guy that’s there secondly it is over a weekend so it might not be influential Monday or that influential in the market was trying to get there before reversing down it may not behave as if it actually got there it may still be attracted up to it and that attraction being outstanding over the weekend they serve as momentum a vacuum that needs to be filled just to help keep the story alive over the weekend but as far as fulfilling on Mondays confirm Breakout remember when we last talked on last Saturday this is a Distributive pattern and it still is nothing changes that that this prior week the Labor Day week last 3 days where distributive that could have resolved down immediately having been distributive tested the Labor Day low and then off to the races from there to the upside instead the rally has resumed and without delay by gapping up above that multi-session range over the weekend which again over the weekend isn’t necessarily the same sponsorship but that doesn’t really matter if it’s confirmed the following session two consecutive Hunter closes above the multi-session range put into play and eventual third iron clothes doesn’t have to be immediate we could have had a downdraft pulled back in the interim didn’t but could have that’s where that knowledge of that third higher clothes outstanding becomes useful most useful instead the next next several sessions this doesn’t look like a rally doesn’t have that testing new highs new Highs are being chipped away almost grudgingly almost when would say pessimistically from a contrarian perspective potential English leaving unfinished business from a Distributive days I had remembered that previously instead of on that Tuesday coming back from Labor Day six weeks old on that leg we be looking for the movie extended we’re not hey can happen but it’s not a requirement because the market took time to form a Distributive base to launch that leg from that makes its buyers weekend and so we’ve got some sort of conflicting signals or assessments basically that the that the base from which last week’s rally was launched is distributive not stable week handed or indicating that the sponsorship of the brake higher is weak and it and we’ve got a pessimistic Behavior not so much as because it is actually and finally we have confirmed split the difference between the weak base and by which may begin from gapping down so that the morning bounces maybe can buy Gap it up so that the morning extends any case by Monday’s close if not Tuesday morning this is in the case by the way how are potentially extending higher or the path higher being substantially into the 2500 2500 handle 2541 25 50 in that event this leg is probably incapable of extended or extending my tire maybe it gets to this parallel uptrending resistance 2503 I’ve got at least 25 or one now as a likely touch but something on the order some sort of behavior like this immediately on Monday Monday morning and left to its own devices I had a friend since Wednesday’s fomc meeting or policy statement that is and by the way the quarterly fed share press conference always fun some sort and I don’t need to draw this straight down as if that’s out of Market behave but extending down anyway even if only to test by proxy the origin the break above the distributive range I know this looks like a air pocket because there’s not a lot of trading they’re actually that’s not what makes it in your pocket air plants are areas or stretches that have been thoroughly tested so there’s actually where you see thin trading or less trading that’s actually a lot of support so that would suffice however a hard-fought that was whenever bounces maybe FMC wear to bring out and yes good point Russia Shawna is Thursday it’s Thursday and Friday but the predominantly Market participation is thinner on Thursday much there on Thursday probably not going to be too heavy on Friday anyway so if the Market’s going to get any kind of a counter-trend move out of the way it tends to do that not on thinner participation but ahead of it it’s the thinner participation that prompts position or repositioning so that’s the one path down if not the likeliest pat-down is it go ahead and probe higher of course Monday’s Monday mornings bullish wed x influence would help but Monday mornings bullets wed x influence doesn’t require gapping up or prevent gapping down before trending up during the morning but that’s one potential to extend higher first of course capping down to whatever degree weather it’s to these priorities for the week lower there’s a gap at cetera bouncing through Monday morning and then reversing down couple of pads lower whether that’s here to 2477 plus a minus two points and I don’t need to give it a four point range there’s a literally 3 attractions in here three separate patterns or three strike three separate attractions or projections of multiple patterns at 2475 2477 and 2479 any one of them would suffice we got we have to work through the entirety of them to put into play anything lower so that’s two different ways and influences for beginning a pull back and where they would likely end where April back would likely end but that’s from the bullish perspective that’s from a boy’s perspective that quickly quickly gets that remaining bullish influence satisfied doesn’t leave any buyers outstanding so that I can go ahead and get on with its correction bullish influence leave that hire clothes outstanding and get on with a correction before holiday volume makes it irrelevant Corrections on volume at least normal volume normally Contracting volume versus artificially contracted volume like taking a lot of participants out of the market is much more predictive and influential if that they’re not close is already gotten out of the way I did not close anymore sorry now just that next time close at the new trend I close on a Friday and Shores get that out of the way already as quickly as possible be at Monday or Tuesday and then start turning down for whatever reason preferably not because of the holiday than Thursday holiday not on the Thursday holiday but already pulling back into Tuesday’s close or Wednesday and then we have reason at that point to believe Less sell and the rally extending or in a pullback being recovered if there’s no unfinished business left out standing above not that again not that the reversal down to becomes a straight path down in fact they’re still potential to be very choppy on the way down until we get out of this this range but if this particular breakout is retraced entirely back under a couple of Oz couple of prioritize it essentially starts sealing a top might look at other markets any other questions please go ahead and post them let me know if not the closing basis and now it’s been projected higher that covery leg projected higher to 38.2% and has held it may be its probe to 6033 but the point is where es was a confirmed break out Monday and Tuesday we barely see that here you can just barely see it in the majority all it not just the majority of Tuesday in ndx which is representing more speculative Behavior was mostly overlapping mostly just noise around Monday and happened all this happening to close above Monday’s close to confirm its Breakout and then trading similarly happening to close higher on Wednesday but holding a test of those hives on Friday not closing higher then it’s one session trying to break hire a second consecutive session such diversions between es and and Qs what essentially tell us momentum is about to reverse down if it isn’t already but I would like to see a similar rejection of fresh highs or similar to Virgin swear es is produced probing fresh eyes and accuse or not for second consecutive session not delaying it until Tuesday but on Monday so little concern here not really just a little but there’s a reason to Be watchful and ready to shift Hound mentality as far as higher highs if in fact and Qs don’t get their act in order here and somehow show that institutional or fiduciary or larger or another words stronger hands is actually more open to the speculative areas of the market then necessarily yes which is a broader-based few of the market is there any way to see a difference here at Willits look at the Del the Dow is 30 stocks and it’s going to be the most or perceived as the safest that the safest return or the safest versus cash just that relative to the cross section of Industry that the S&P 500 components represent or versus the more speculative growth-oriented stocks still liquid enough for the incisional players so we can see their mentality that the n q represents here’s the Dow 30 most established generally predictable Orting streams revenue streams among the most liquid Etc to look like money is rotating into the Dow and out of and Qs oops and not the asses doing any better or at fighting off rotation into the Dallas a firdaus. There’s reason for concern here and new Highs are not a cell signal but the mentality of the market participants they’re still bullish or there’s still buying which typically they do 90% of the time I would say but they’re being more selective getting into these little late save for bets question we cannot see the top of that fulfilling one more higher close yes that is correct and that is in by the way shouldn’t be confused with reversal in whichever direction but we know the context because if the market is able to rally is able to attract such sponsorship that’s able to produce a new High clothes consecutively and then another set up if it’s able to produce a new trend I close into a weekend it’s just not a not going to be strong handed sellers maybe the beginning of a reversal down that needs to be corrected retraced entirely but not the first leg down alright any questions let me know I’m going to move on to start I don’t know that we have any stocks to do this week Arena changed since last week which ended just needs 1010 area has to be recovered to actually put into play fresh eyes and it really is the objective of the actual jective is to retest this opening Gap that was above all prioritize at 1069 73 so let’s come up with another cell signal just in case that’s not what the market has in mind here which is 970-4975 so still 8:50 on Amazon that’s where I’d look for that’s where I’d look for the oops the down leg to extend if and or when and extends 850 area you know if in fact this does bounce back to the highs and create a bigger top that’s still going to be in will always be the likely pull back objective to the previous range all the way down first is either retesting the eyes or if in fact this is the peak of the corrective of the bounce and it then is just a correction that price action in here will let us raise the cell signal before it actually reverses downhi this is effectively a daily chart on Tesla coming back up to the eyes homeless grudgingly but yeah here’s a double top at the High not that it required being were tested but nice volume contraction having recovered it now once and then after dipping twice Tesla can’t produce this pattern wouldn’t be prudent be reliable at all as a top if it didn’t include a fresh hot presumably in the 402 54 412 area actually Friday or was it Friday or Thursday I’m thinking it was Friday so you can see the damage that’s been done the Paradigm Shift here not that it was extending hire on more sponsorship because of that lack of sponsorship on the upside the downside is more credible more understandable this kind of pattern of course knife catching is always fun fun pass time to the Philthy Rich buddy can really kill you otherwise interesting that expiration ended with a inside day and interesting of course not only does that lack of participation on the way up help to exacerbate the way down when it’s a surprise catalyst but expiration is well can suddenly bring everyone on winding you know we have a chart like this we do you have a chart like this this is a daily chart just I’m going Relentless uptrend and you have an environment for retirees for instance that is not conducive to savings accounts or CDs so they’re into for instance call selling strategy what kind of stocks do they pick this would be one of them so there’s a lot of expiration related activity lot of extra expiration related activity I would say if Equifax were going to put in a bounce that this is a a reasonable area to expect it from but it would be unreasonable to expect anything more than a bounce if 61.8% of this drop and that’s we’re talking Post open and just to the Lowe’s at we know already we retraced that would be 112 basically there’s no real cat there’s no real trigger for that you know that it’s nice catching and there’s if there’s a trigger and there’s no real trigger in this pattern as it stands now what would be an interesting set up would be if weather bouncing first Monday or initially dipping if at any point on Monday there were a negative a probe under Thursday’s lens negative territory versus the trend really almost any positive close at all would start to suggest a that all the negative sentiment has been expressed but also be that the just mechanical expiration related sewing pressure is done but again not a.m. not a stock or set up or situation that I’d want to just jump into with an opinion as opposed to fading and extreme opinion bounce to 112 likely would be for some sort of a pullback maybe that pull back is just to start forming the more durable bottom I doubt it but from this vantage point I couldn’t say that as definitively as if I’ve been able to see the bounce assuming there’s even a bounce but see what that bounce looks like how many legs to it and how long and drawn-out what it how did it originate did it originate from first pre-testing Thursday’s low as I described their just started taking off on Monday because expirations done and was overdone so no Origins going to speak to that a lot more so that I can’t right now interesting Barclays volume down here very interesting this is an ADR right so one thing I want to see here is is this a Trent change certainly got down trending series of Lowe’s in lower highs here’s an interesting spot where buyers not that worked out too well and not very well as far as a so there’s one higher close above 12 and I would say some substantial bottoming will have been put into place this is Linda alright anything else to look at anything else to review I don’t think so there’s the on Thursday as it happens Mario draghi is speaking I don’t know the exact time presumably it’ll be before the Market opens or in the morning so that’s really that and then Wednesday Wednesday afternoons FMC policy statement should be well-attended you would think but people leaving for evening services won’t help the liquid Atif actor for that alright going once going twice thanks everyone for being here this weekend have a great weekend Charlie will be open tomorrow night at 6 for the Globex open I’ll see you there or if I don’t see you there I’ll see you Monday morning have a great weekend take care
Saturday Review Link
A new high. While it’s obvious on the chart, the past four days didn’t feel like a rally. One of the rally’s longest, narrowest stretches. What does it mean? What doesn’t it mean? How might it be traded?
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!