Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2502.50 | 2500.25 |
| …would target | 2509.25 | 2507.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2493.50 | 2491.25 |
| …would target | 2490.25 | 2486.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s post-close plunge was “the other shoe to drop.” The session had been greeted by N. Korea preparing a launch, so it was a nicely book-ended by the actual launch. Friday’s open was greeted with almost a complete recovery of the second plunge. It was extended back to prior highs during the morning, and to new highs into the close.
The new high close fulfilled the minimum requirement that was created by Tuesday’s confirmed breakout, which had required an eventual higher close. It was barely replaced by a new trend high close on a Friday, a setup that also requires an eventual higher close. Expirations don’t normally coincide with trend changes, anyway.
Meanwhile, the passively bullish WedEX was influential Friday afternoon. So, it’s likely to be influential Monday morning, too. We’ll discuss the specifics of that setup, and other analytical observations, during this weekend’s Saturday Review at 9:30. ITS URL IS CHANGING, so be sure to login from the email you’ll receive in the morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending down Thursday and testing 1.1845 fulfilled minimum consequences for Wednesday’s failure to rally. But Friday’s gap up and intraday rally were premature for launching a durable recovery. Only a retest of the prior week’s 1.2040 gap is likely before turning back down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Testing and retesting the 1334.00 buy signal after Thursday’s close and overnight was retraced into Friday’s open to range flat-to-lower into the weekend.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Another test of 17.70 Friday helps a close above 17.90 to at least retest the week’s high, if not also resume the rally.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-higher ranging held the week’s downtrend. But reversing ti — even if only for the purpose of completing a bearish Head & Shoulders topping pattern at 156-26 — must still recover 155-20.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow, flat-to-lower ranging suggests that the rally will extend, despite Thursday having fulfilled the prior week’s confirmed breakout.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s test had filled a two-week old gap and held prior highs, so Friday’s pullback was not unusual. It held the 3.02 pullback limit to maintain potential for resuming the rally. Any lower close would have undermined the upside momentum, and under 2.95 would have all but ended the bottoming pattern.
Mid-day Update… Double-no, vs. one up.
How passive can passively bias be?
This morning’s no-bias environment probed fresh highs up to 2496.75 high. Testing this morning’s 2496.00 bias-up signal defined the window’s upper-end. Price action since then has been contained within a narrow 2-point range down to 2494.25. Now the afternoon’s no-bias has triggered.
Friday afternoon’s are more notorious for no action than for suddenly trending when there hasn’t been any. Absent another missile threat, the session’s only remaining potential influence is the passively bullish WedEX. Its only qualification is to recover any dips, and not necessarily to trend up.
Meanwhile, the no-bias environment should be contained within its 2492.25 and 2497.50 bias signals. Until the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30, or that comes within view 10-15 minutes earlier, which would be free to trend either way.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Sep 18, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Housing Market Index isn’t often influential to price action. But it may gain higher-profile as the hurrican season’s effects begin being assessed. And HMI may be the among the last to establish a baseline.
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET