Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Narrower still. Deceptively?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was greeted attacking Tuesday’s lows to within 1 point. Post-open action worked its way back up throughout the day, with a last-minute attack on Tuesday’s high to within 1 tick. That was against the background of two consecutive no-bias signals.
Overnight action’s new info…
Similar to Tuesday night, Wednesday night’s Globex session is contained entirely within Wednesday’s intraday range. But last night’s range reflects no sponsorship. It is contained within the upper 61.8% of yesterday’s range, and not threatening either end. Immediately extending Tuesday night’s dip at Wednesday’s open would have been credible for resuming its overnight effort. But this morning’s open is not being greeted by an overnight effort to extend, so any post-open trending is new sponsorship.
If, then…
Greeting Tuesday’s open at Tuesday’s low actually began by ending Tuesday at its high. A high that had fulfilling “unfinished business above.” Overnight sellers weren’t able to break the intraday range, and Wednesday’s sellers were non-existent. Developing this setup at a trend high doesn’t make it any abler to avoid a detour down, only likelier to recover from one. The timing formed a passively bullish WedEX for Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, Monday’s confirmed breakout has yet to be fulfilled by at least one more higher close, which Wednesday’s close within Tuesday’s confirmation range doesn’t fulfill.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2494.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2496.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s morning market tour and not a lot going on let’s going on last night then was going on Wednesday night which amounted to nothing intraday not sure that that that we should look at this as or anticipate a dry cleaners morning because of that but here’s the issue is that hears Tuesday’s intraday range and actually went all the way up to satisfy its buying pressure 2494 9550 at the close and the overnight action was just a effort to break lower not really an effort so much as it didn’t Trend up it was attracted back down some optimism in here not necessarily at testing Tuesday afternoons low which was overlapped twice but the intraday low wasn’t even attacked and that’s before yesterday’s action trended backup intraday if that’s even trending its first of all not really an absolute range of any degree of consequence and secondly it’s an inside day contained within within Wednesday’s range more narrowly much more narrowly I’ll try within Tuesday’s range two consecutive no bias signals so no real trending actually just noise that gravitated back to the high so what do we have today we’ve got even narrower overnight trending which isn’t without its identifying characteristics for instance here’s yesterday’s range from low basically too high so overnight action has developed exclusively or been contained within yesterday’s upper 61.8% it’s not arbitrary probably but it’s also not sponsorship that’s the point is there is no sponsorship this is just corrective stuff correcting an inside day isn’t very predictive any more predictive than inside overnight can be so take that with a grain of salt but the point is there’s no new sponsorship here if sellers were to try to take control at the open they’d be an Uncharted Territory versus the most recent action they would be new sponsorship they would be new sponsorship if they try to take control of the open by breaking under the overnight low they run into difficulty and yesterday’s low and Tuesdays and be difficult to get under 88-89 if sellers even try if they haven’t yet made some significant move before the open so if there is a probably a by will look at the timing of course Tuesday qualify as that will filament of a confirmed breakout confer breakout meeting that at least an eventual third are close is coming can’t go out by the closing within the range but also not that it matters until tomorrow afternoon and Monday morning we’ve got passively bullet X but we are hovering at the highs because of the past we both will be by so today when we so suggest there’s one more day down or at least one more lower loan on a Cellular close but something that gets closer to 1 1845 gold traded lower yesterday then on Tuesday and that’s the overnight as well so fighting it even if this were a hundred percent of sure to fill in the Gap back to 1350 51 just the optimism that keeps delaying getting the slide out of the way does suggest that this is some kind of Heaven perhaps from a contrarian perspective little too optimistic so topping may be underway silver sort of as well and it keeps fighting 1770 just a natural pull back to 1770 let alone 1760 that wouldn’t make a close above 1790 bullish keeps fighting that a lot of optimism here on a pullback that’s not usually bullets doesn’t prevent recovering initially it just says here’s the context of that recovery Justin up leg with a distributor the bond extended it slide past its minimum objective to its potential and now lower yesterday lower than so need York reaction down a bit absorb closing slightly negative without even touching 302 would actually be bearish too much optimism and meanwhile as you can see from the character of the pattern knee jerk reaction down there’s an even required as we tracked this bigger Longer term bottoming alright so any questions please go ahead and post them in the chart room and I’ll see you there before they open did luck today.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2498.50 | 2496.00 |
| …would target | 2503.50 | 2501.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2490.75 | 2488.25 |
| …would target | 2485.75 | 2483.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Two consecutive no-bias signals almost says it all. Wednesday’s inside day was uneventful, hovering at Tuesday’s highs. Monday’s confirmed breakout has yet to be fulfilled by at least one more higher close. Wednesday’s last-minute surge doesn’t suggest strong-handed buyers are suddenly making their move. Neither factor protects against an interim pullback, as I describe in today’s video.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday repeated Tuesday’s test of 1.1955-1.1970 support, with less success at holding it or recovering from it. Trending down into the afternoon tested 1.1875, likely to test 1.1855 before the next credible recovery attempt.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight triggered a gap up at Wednesday’s open, which was then reversed more deeply to fresh lows at 1324.50. Breaking again under the 1337.50 sell signal is now more likely to extend down to 1318.50 before a retest of recent highs would be credible, or at least credible for extending higher.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s dip to wasn’t deep enough for its recovery to 17.90 to launch a new rally leg. Wednesday’s retest of Tuesday’s low barely avoided 17.70 before bouncing back up to 17.90, still vulnerable to a deeper dip.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
After extending Monday’s pullback under 156-00 to attack 155-04 Tuesday, Wednesday slid deeper to retrace the two-week old prior low under 155-00. Back above 155-20 would trigger a bounce targeting 157-10.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already firming into Wednesday’s open was extended higher intraday to attack last week’s highs to within a nickel, targeting a new high close as required by its confirmed breakout highs, so long as 47.95 now holds as support.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday and extending through Tuesday’s 3.04 high helped to confirm that shorts were trapped by the Friday-Monday break under 2.95. Filling the gap back to the week-old 3.06 close could provide near-term resistance, so pullbacks should hold 3.02 if the recovery is intact.
Mid-day Update… Specks.
Narrow intraday range.
Gapping down to attack yesterday’s low was the most relevant feature to today’s range. The test held, although it wasn’t really a test. Anyway, the post-open bounce has been testing yesterday’s highs. Not the overnight highs, but yesterday’s slightly lower intraday high.
It’s not a very wide range, and it’s not very interesting price action. In fact, it’s now two consecutive no-bias signals on an “inside day.” Trending before the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing would be suspicious.
Trending after the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing would be credible for extending. Dipping under 2492.00 could test or attack 2488.00 and then collapse into the close. Or not collapse — nothing is required, which is the difficulty of a no-bias inside day.