Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s break lower had all but required extending down deeper to at least test 1.1845 before a recovery attempt could be credible for retesting recent highs. Its test in the wake of BOE hawkish comments and a potential N. Korea missile launch was recovered to test 1.1920, but not yet reversing momentum back up.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another lower low Wednesday had made the 1318.50 likelier to be tested before any sizable bounce. Thursday morning was well on its way there to within $1 when N. Korea missile rumors triggered a spike up to 1332.00. Having at least tested 1320.00, the pullback can be considered done if its reaction were to close above 1334.00. Otherwise, a more thorough test of 1318.50 would be likely.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Pullbacks had been too shallow to be confident that closing above 17.90 was launching at least a retest of last week’s highs, if not actually resuming the rally. Thursday was already testing 17.70, which held a retest, so that closing above 17.90 would now reverse the trend up.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Lower lows Thursday at 154-12 were quickly retraced up to 155-08 in the wake of Thursday’s N. Korea missile threat. But there was no follow-through, only narrow ranging at the trend lows, still needing to recover 155-20 to signal a bounce underway.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s close above 48.00 to resume the rally wasted no time extending, gapping up Thursday and probing fresh highs up to 50.50. Last Tuesday’s confirmed breakout has now fulfilled its minimum third higher close. The rally remains intact with potential to 52.00 and 55.00, so long as a pullback can avoid closing under 49.55.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength that would have likely recovered from a knee-jerk reaction down. Gapping down slightly held 3.04 and was reversed to fresh highs above 3.10.. Closing back under Wednesday’s 3.07 high won’t tolerate much delay in resuming the rally Friday.
Mid-day Update… Another rumor?
Stuck at unchanged without new news.
If not for the pre-open news, would this morning have only extended the narrow overnight range? Its plunge was recovered entirely back into the overnight range. And then momentarily higher to 2496.25.
But returning to positive territory and reversing into positive territory seem to be two different things. Sideways ranging resumed before the morning’s bias environment began lapsing. It extended through the noon hour, and now in to the afternoon bias environment.
Will more trending today require another missile rumor? An actual launch? Regardless, extending higher is difficult with this morning’s missile threat hanging over the market’s head.
Retesting the 2489.00 post-open low would likely also test the 2487.50 pre-open low. Testing either would be the last opportunity to break lower. In other words, holding a retest of this morning’s lows would form a base to resume the rally.
Otherwise, narrow ranging or a shallow dip may define the balance of the session. Neither of which would offer a signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 15, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The econ calendar is busy for an expiration day, let alone Quad-witch. And no matter how high-profile, the pre-open reports aren’t reliable for triggering a price reaction. But any noticeable reaction should be duplicated by the post-open Consumer Sentiment — if not also exacerbated.
Quadruple Witching
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2498.25 | 2496.00 |
| …would target | 2503.25 | 2501.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2492.00 | 2489.75 |
| …would target | 2485.75 | 2483.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Kim Jong!
Missile threat stirs things up.
The narrow overnight range was supported at 2491.50. It wasn’t hinting at anything happening this morning — not organically. For that, we needed rumors that N. Korea is readying another missile launch. A pre-open plunge extended down to 2487.50.
Bouncing to 2492.00 tested the overnight range’s “higher prior lows.” Its reaction down to 2489.00 was the first post-open test of the pullback range that I described during the pre-open Market Tour. That has been recovered to fresh post-open highs at 2494.25.
That’s also the upper-end of last night’s ranging. So, it’s natural resistance. Not that it can’t be recovered, too, but it’s more difficult. The bias-down signal wasn’t tested post-open, so no offsetting test of its 2496.00 bias-up signal is required. Still, recovering anyway should test the 2500.00-2501.00 area.