Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 3, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Employment Situation report is often released in a vacuum, but not this month. It is already both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action, and now more so for coming simultaneously with two other reports. And being a pre-open report, any noticeable reaction is likely to be duplicated in reaction to the post-open reports. Two later Fed speakers should maintain the economic focus into Friday afternoon.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
10:15 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks
1:45 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2911.00 | 2912.00 |
| …would target | 2918.50 | 2919.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2899.00 | 2900.00 |
| …would target | 2891.25 | 2892.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… BIAS-UP.
Relentless post-open firming pierces overnight high.
The relentless overnight rally from 2915.50 had gotten to 2932.50.
Its reaction down extended to 2921.00 before the open, and another 2 points lower post-open. It took several minutes, but a wide 5-point opening range resolved up.
And up. Overnight highs were just pierced by 1 ticks. The 2929.75 bias-up signal has triggered. And the 2936.50 bias-up target is in-play.
Stair-stepping higher out of the open’s range is a difficult pattern to reverse. At least, not before some sort of topping were to develop. Simply breaking lower would otherwise be likely to recover.
Meanwhile, recovering back up into 2930.00-2934.00 isn’t “half the battle” to recover, it is a separate battle. Exiting the bias environment above 2935.00-2936.00 would help to resume the post-open recovery into something more substantial.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Big, and almost enough.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Excessive optimism preceded Wednesday’s open, from surging at Tuesday’s close on AAPL’s earnings to producing a “new Globex trend extreme” overnight. The 2961.25 overnight high qualifies as a “New Globex trend extreme” requiring eventual intraday retest. None of which prevented the 2954.25 open from cycling down to 2943.50 at the noon hour’s low, with an interim bounce up to 2956.00. Even that had stopped optimistically short of fulfilling Tuesday’s unfinished business below at 2941.50. The FOMC policy statement reaction bounced back up to 2956.00, but no higher. The Fed Chair Q&A reaction was quite different, reacting down to 2939.00 through the bias environment exit. Consolidating there broke lower again through the last half-hour, collapsing to 2924.50 at the cash session close and 2921.00 before settlement.
Overnight action’s new info…
Just closing under 2935.00 or 2930.00 would have been a compelling hold-short, likely to gap down to 2919.00. So much of that potential had been borrowed already before the close to make it no longer compelling, creating potential for a bounce. Post-close action did probe 2919.00 down to the 2915.50 Globex action. Trending up relentlessly since then touched 2932.25. A blip-down to 2925.00 just snapped back up to 2929.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Recovering 2930.00-2934.00 is big, but not quite a rejection of the overnight break. Big, because the probe under Tuesday’s 2926.00 low could be isolated away from intraday action, for which there was otherwise no bullish reason to probe. That’s not enough to reject the break, but it helps position the open to extend the overnight recovery up to 2949.75-2950.50. And revisiting the 2950.00 area should include a retest of 2956.00, whose resistance is probably no longer influential enough to prevent retesting Tuesday night’s 2961.25 “new Globex trend extreme.” Otherwise, containing the 2930.00-2934.00 bounce and resuming the decline would next target 2910.00-2911.00, a very difficult level to recover from.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2931.50 would be likely to trigger the 2929.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2927.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2928.00 | 2929.75 |
| …would target | 2934.75 | 2936.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2916.50 | 2918.50 |
| …would target | 2909.25 | 2911.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP INVALIDATED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.