Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Greeting the news optimistically.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s late collapse to and through its 2919.50 target was corrected overnight to its 2930.00-2934.00 objective at 2932.25. Dipping back down to 2919.50 into the open reacted back up to test the pre-open high. Triggering bias-up cleanly at 10:15 was invalidated at 10:30 as the balance of the morning bias environment collapsed down to 2901.00. Bouncing back to 2919.50 into the afternoon bias environment ranged narrowly sideways through the close, but for a momentary dip to 2910.00. .
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy sideways ranging around 2919.50 broke higher to 2926.00. But only momentarily before settling back to 2922.00. Europe’s opens triggered another break higher to 2928.50 whose reaction is now trying to hold 2926.00 as support.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The overnight rally’s slope isn’t so steep as to labeled excessive optimism. But it is optimism anyway, and its sponsorship hasn’t gained any traction for the effort — yesterday morning’s 2932.75 prior high is still resistance. Having tested and retested 2930.00-2934.00, another retest would likely break higher. But 2936.00 and preferably 2940.00 must be recovered through a relevant timing window to confirm momentum is reversing up. Next higher objectives would be 2950.00 (+/-), 2956.00, and a retest of the 2961.25 “new Globex trend extreme,” probably up to 2969.00. Otherwise, not much support exists below in case of a negative reaction to the Employment Situation report. Perhaps some at 2892.00-2894.00, although it was already tested overnight there weeks ago. Any lower would target 2846.00-2851.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] There is no preliminary indication ahead of Employment Situation reports.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2922.75 | 2924.00 |
| …would target | 2928.00 | 2929.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2910.50 | 2912.00 |
| …would target | 2904.50 | 2906.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s late collapse had extended to and through the 2919.50 objective for the following open, making the pattern vulnerable to a corrective bounce. The correction’s likely objective at 2930.00-2934.00 was mostly probed overnight to 2932.25, and then 1 tick higher post-open. An interim dip back down to 2919.50 held the open.
The 13-point post-open corrective bounce wasn’t Thursday’s only rally effort. Neither was it the largest. But it did make it easier for another effort to succeed, having tested and retested 2930.00-2934.00, so another retest would likely break higher. Even then, 2936.00 must be recovered through a relevant timing window, preferably 2940.00. Next higher objectives would be 2950.00 (+/-), 2956.00, and a retest of the 2961.25 “new Globex trend extreme,” probably up to 2969.00.
Meanwhile, trending is difficult overnight ahead of an Employment Situation report. The impending event probably caused Thursday afternoon’s narrow sideways ranging. Not much support exists below. Possibly at 2892.00-2894.00, although it was already tested overnight there weeks ago. Any lower would target 2846.00-2851.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The backing-and-filling stage had begun almost immediately Wednesday upon testing 1.1300 resistance, reversing down to 1.1240 support at the pattern’s lower-end. It extended deeper Thursday, still having room a little lower to 1.1205.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s outperformance compensated for its delay in also sliding, by gapping down to two-week old lows and probing fresh lows attacking 1267.00. The fresh low’s recovery to close back above 1271.50 is essentially the bullish scenario described during the pre-open Market Tour. It wasn’t recovered, but still being overlapped into the close.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down under Wednesday’s low — regardless of how substantial either session dipped, let alone both — confirmed Wednesday’s breakout from the two prior days’ multi-session range. No buy signal or recovery will be credible until at least one more lower close is produced.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already dipping back down Wednesday to Friday’s highs that had held a test of “higher prior lows” and the gap-fill above, Thursday slid deeper to test the 147-04 sell signal. The original 146-30 sell signal was also being tested, again, which is the last opportunity to break lower.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s dip had allowed lowering the buy signal to 63.75, but dipping overnight back down to Wednesday’s 62.75 low gapped won and slid to fresh lows at 60.95. The buy signal is lowered again to 63.10.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA from a position of strength for the first time in months didn’t prevent sliding at the open from 2.61 to back under the prior highs that Wednesday’s close had broken. Which the EIA reaction extended down to Tuesday’s lows at 2.56 before recovering to attack 2.61.
Mid-day Update… BIAS-UP, again.
The last one was quickly invalidated.
This morning’s 2929.75 bias-up signal was recovered through 10:15 to trigger bias-up. It had not extended higher before dipping to 2928.00 at 10:30.
The bars surrounding 10:30 were overlapping 2929.75, so we at least left the door open to resuming the rally. But its 2931.50 signal was only touched and not triggered.
A reversal’s 2928.25 signal did trigger, and it was very productive. Apparently reacting to word spreading that io another break in China trade talks, sharply lower lows at 2901.00 was tested while the bias environment lapsed.
Even if the morning’s bias-up were not invalidated at 10:30, it was invalidated by exiting the bias environment under its 2918.50 and 2911.25 bias-down parameters. So, its 2936.50 bias-up target is not “unfinished business.”
Meanwhile, rallying through the noon hour has now triggered bias-up again, back above 2912.00. The 2919.50 bias-up target is in-play. Already 2918.25 has been touched. Which is no assurance of extending any higher, and might instead risk having expressed too much optimism ahead of tomorrow morning’s Employment Situation report.
The only “unfinished business” above is Tuesday night’s “new Globex trend extreme” high, which is the least attractive hierarchically. Not recovering 2930.00-2934.00, and preferably 2935.00-2936.00, could be very vulnerable to a negative reaction.