Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The pullback had a little extra room down to 1.1200 and it was probed before Friday’s open down to 1.1175. But the morning recovered it and continued firming back into positive territory at downtrending resistance at 1.1235. Not resuming the pullback will allow a bottoming pattern to form.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s plunge from a multi-session range had held prior lows, recovering an intraday probe of fresh lows testing 1267.50 to help trap shorts, but not decisively recovering 1271.50. Rallying in reaction to the Employment Situation report extended sharply higher to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s 1284.00 close. A second consecutive higher close on Monday could seal a bottom.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Two consecutive sharply lower drops down to 14.56, confirming Wednesday’s breakout from a multi-session range, didn’t prevent Friday’s Employment Situation reaction from surging back into that broken range up to 15.00. The original 14.88 buy signal and adjusted 14.81 buy signal were recovered, so a second consecutive higher close Monday must be avoided to resume the requirement for at least an eventual fresh low close.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s knee-jerk reaction to the Employment Situation report touched 146-21 and bounced back up to “higher prior lows” at 147-21. But greeting the report from a position of weakness suggests the bounce will be rejected back under the 147-04 sell signal to resume the next downleg targeting 145-24.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-higher ranging Friday up to 62.50 remained under the 63.25 buy signal, which must still trigger to reinstate the 67.00 target.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming overnight to further test 2.61 was retraced by Friday’s open by a dip testing 2.55 support. The pullback is still likely to resolve up and trigger another buy signal.
Mid-day Update… BIAS-UP.
Gravitating higher.
Resistance at 2936.00 was probed momentarily during the first hour, above 2938.00. 
But it took a return to the opening range’s 2931.50 low for another probe above 2936.00 to extend. That attacked 2943.00, and its reaction tested 2938.00 as support.
But the bias environment’s exit recovered 2940.00, and the noon hour extended to fresh highs. Now this afternoon’s 2944.50 bias-up signal has triggered, targeting 2951.75. Already a fresh high is touching 2948.25.
Interim resistance in the 2950.00 area could challenge the path to 2951.75, or else it had better support a reaction down from 2951.75. If the afternoon continues drifting higher as Friday afternoons often do, the next higher objective is 2956.00. Meanwhile, a reaction down has room to 2941.75 before even beginning to suggest momentum is reversing down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 6, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week starts slowly for econ reports, not only compared to the week just ended, but with no morning report. However, a Fed speaker at the open does offer potential for influencing price action.
*Patrick Harker Speaks
9:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2943.50 | 2944.50 |
| …would target | 2950.75 | 2951.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2932.75 | 2934.00 |
| …would target | 2927.25 | 2928.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bias-up, Bias-up target exceeded.
Holding up, but holding back.
The relentless overnight rally had come within 1 tick of the 2929.25 bias-up target before Payrolls was announced. 
Its knee-jerk reaction from 2931.00 down to 2923.00 was quickly recovered back up to 2931.00.
The relentless rally resumed, greeting the open at 2934.00. Which the first hour has overlapped repeatedly. Four of the first hour’s 5 15-minute checkpoints overlapped it, suggesting a Dry Cleaners morning — difficult, perhaps better off running errands.
Maintaining positive territory throughout the first hour does suggest that buyers are strong-handed. It doesn’t prevent dipping into negative territory, but it does suggest a dip would be temporary to find more sponsorship for the rally. Alternatively, rallying out of the bias window would suggest that sponsorship has arrived already.
A second test of its 2931.50 lower-end has now pierced its upper-end to 2939.50. Resistance at 2940.00 may challenge the rally initially, but sellers aren’t any likelier to retake control.