Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… On the way to the forum.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s Employment Situation report was greeted optimistically, but not so optimistically as to be bearish from a contrarian perspective. In fact, the 10-point rally from 2918.00 to 2928.00 greeted Friday’s open at 2934.00. Then it extended to 2949.00 into the afternoon bias environment. But no traction was gained and the balance of the session ranged sideways as the cash session closed at 2946.00. The afternoon’s bias-up had just triggered and its 2951.75 target was left outstanding. Also left outstanding was an intraday retest of Wednesday’s 2961.75 overnight high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Reports of difficulties in China trade talks were confirmed Sunday when Trump tweeted that tariffs will rise on Friday. Globex gapped down 28 points to Thursday’s 2918.00 close and collapsed another 24 points from there to 2893.50. A bounce resolved down to 2883.50, and a more gradual reaction up to 2903.50 has defined a trading range that persisted through Europe’s opens.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Any downside with a greater purpose than simply backing-and-filling would require gapping down sharply — at the very least, under Friday’s 2931.50 post-open lows. That doesn’t seem to be a problem based on current indications. Of course, opening too much deeper without gaining traction along the way can inhibit sponsorship, let alone reinforcements. The overnight collapse’s catalyst isn’t organic. Rather, it is in reaction to China trade talks developments. Fading reactions to those headlines has been highly reliable. Exiting the open back above 2920.00 would start to signal that sellers weren’t gaining traction. Recovering 2931.50 would still be necessary for putting into play a retest of last week’s highs. Otherwise, breaking under 2886.00-2892.00 through a relevant timing window would next target 2846.00-2851.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Price is too far removed from this morning’s bias parameters to escape renewing the bias-down signal.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 5/4/19) …A weak position of strength.
SPECIAL NOTE: I didn’t mention the CME’s planned introduction this week of “Micro-minis” (MES) having one-tenth the notional value of the E-mini (ES). I’ll continue charting and discussing the ES, because patterns and strategies should be identical.
I did discuss this week’s most interesting feature, which developed among consecutive timing window trending attempts. Not that trending hasn’t been attempted by consecutive timing windows, but they have been intraday. This week saw two instances of those timing windows overlapping two sessions, which reflects a greater persistence by its sponsorship. So, it’s also interesting to note those attempts trended down.
Another interesting feature this week was the wider ranging. None of which is a sell signal, especially since those attempts were recovered and “unfinished business” remains outstanding above. But known catalysts are all but gone, so something big must appear on the horizon to prevent or protect against another deeper reversal down.
We review that and more during this weekend’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
DB, EA, PZZA, CS, DIS, ROKU, TTD, BKNG, ETSY, JD, MAR, GOOGL, AAPL
transcript
—————– (05/04/2019 09:31) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
jp 2: gm
Mark G: gm
Bill G: gm
lloyd: gm. hi rod. still seeing an issue with the past 2 sat review recordings on iOS with the puffin browser. it wont play the sat review, but it does play morning/close recordings…strange. i will update to latest ios this weekend to see if it fixes it.
lloyd: and let you know.
lloyd: yes. works on morning/afternoon recordings
lloyd: link might be slightly different… i se crf_token in the weekend url.
lloyd: thx.
—————– (05/04/2019 09:47) —————–
lloyd: can you have a blog section of “open” unifinished business levels?
—————– (05/04/2019 09:50) —————–
lloyd: sounds good.
—————– (05/04/2019 10:02) —————–
Mark G: DB
lloyd: stocks: EA, PZZA (both earnings tues after close)DIS, ROKU (wed earnings)TTD, BKNG, ETSY (thurs earnings)JD,MAR (fri earnings)
Mark G: CS
—————– (05/04/2019 10:05) —————–
Mark G: complex triangle?
Bill G: complex triangle
—————– (05/04/2019 10:13) —————–
Mark G: any timeframe expectation to get extend to 69 on EA?
—————– (05/04/2019 10:23) —————–
Mark G: did you say ADR?
—————– (05/04/2019 10:26) —————–
Mark G: k
—————– (05/04/2019 10:36) —————–
lloyd: thurs
Mark G: EA in a position of weakness prior to Tue earnings or maybe too early to call?
lloyd: TTD: any good pullback entry if it drops?
lloyd: looking to be a pullback buyer
—————– (05/04/2019 10:38) —————–
Mark G: no was just asswering your pattern Q
—————– (05/04/2019 10:46) —————–
lloyd: quick review of GOOGL and AAPL post earnings
Mark G: EA in a position of weakness prior to Tue earnings or maybe too early to call?
—————– (05/04/2019 11:02) —————–
lloyd: thanks for the stocks today!
Mark G: thx much
Bill G: thanks
lloyd: i liked he post earnings review too!
Rod David: ;
Rod David: ;)
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2949.75 | 2951.50 |
| …would target | 2956.25 | 2958.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2942.00 | 2944.00 |
| …would target | 2936.00 | 2938.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s Employment Situation report was greeted by an optimistic overnight rally from 2918.00. Not too optimistic as to be bearish from a contrarian perspective. In fact, Friday’s 2934.00 open was greeted higher, and the rally extended to 2949.00 into the afternoon bias environment. No traction was gained and the balance of the session ranged sideways, but not before triggering bias-up.
The afternoon’s 2951.75 target was left outstanding. Resistance along the way to it at 2950 (+/-) would be more predictive than influential, meaning that the resolution to its test would be more influential than it would fulfill buying pressure. Above the 2950.00 area would target a retest of 2956.00, and there’s little reason to even visit it other than to break higher. Unfinished business above remains outstanding at 2961.75, which could be tested up to 2969.00.
Any downside with a greater purpose than backing-and-filling would require gapping down sharply — at the very least, under Friday’s 2931.50 post-open lows. Any less weaker weak open would likely be only temporary backing-and-filling intent upon recovering to fulfill the above paragraph’s objectives.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW.