Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2444.25 | 2443.00 |
| …would target | 2449.50 | 2448.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2435.00 | 2434.00 |
| …would target | 2430.25 | 2429.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
“Unfinished business below” left outstanding at Monday’s 2414.25 bias-down target got company of sorts Thursday. The morning’s 2434.50 low was accompanied by simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs, which requires its eventual retest.
That retest might be done soon. Dipping deeper to 2438.00 Thursday could have served as the pullback’s low. Perhaps it has, but now Friday’s open must gap up at least above the afternoon’s 2444.00 high, and quickly extend above 2446.50. Otherwise, Monday’s 2429.00 “lower prior highs” are the next lower attraction.
And there’s no assurance of holding the next lower attraction, or its room for noise down to 2427.25. The impending weekend’s Friday Factors could exacerbate a morning drop to also test Monday’s “unfinished business below” and lower. Rallying would target the gap fill up to Tuesday’s 2451.50 cash session close and probably higher to also test 2461.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday morning’s dip held Wednesday’s low and its 1.1800 support whose break would target 1.1765 and potentially lower into a new downleg. Closing above Thursday’s 1.1845 high on Friday could extend the bounce.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday night’s attack on the 1288.00 sell signal that was tested Tuesday doesn’t entirely confirm the recovery attempt failed, but it does suggest that a break lower could be very productive before consolidating.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 16.90 sell signal was retested overnight which continues to threaten launching a new downleg that seals a top.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s breakout close was not on-track to be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Thursday. The morning was contained within Friday’s range, not even threatening the room for a pullback to just under 156-00 or to 155-22.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Immediately dipping back under the 48.45 sell signal Thursday extended down to the 47.25 low of its prior test, which shouldn’t have been retested at this stage unless the pattern were ready to extend down.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Tomorrow I’ll roll coverage forward to Oct, which is trading at a 3-cent premium to Sep…] Gapping up Thursday to test 2.95 was reversed back down, still vulnerable to closing under 2.91 and putting back into play a deeper pullback targeting 2.81. Hurricane Harvey’s influence could inhibit sellers.
Mid-day Update… Shaken, not stirred up.
Wild morning ride tries retracing. Try again.
Similar to yesterday, bounces are still failing to prove they’re sponsored by strong hands.
This morning’s bounce back up to 2446.50 stopped short of an offsetting test of the 2448.50 bias-up signal. It was tested already at the open, so a retest wasn’t required. 
Falling back under 2443.00 started to signal a retest of the 2435.25 overnight lows was likelier.
In fact, the morning’s 2434.50 bias-down signal was touched. When the bias environment began lapsing. While RSIs were simultaneously oversold. Vulnerability to at least a corrective bounce was exploited, bouncing up to the morning’s 2440.00 bias-down signal.
Hovering there through the noon hour suddenly broke higher to 2444.25 coming out of the noon hour. It’s valid, and so is the afternoon’s 2443.00 bias-up signal that it triggered. But it hasn’t extended. And now its reaction down is testing the noon hour’s consolidation around 2440.00.
Back above 2443.50 would start to signal the recovery is resuming. This afternoon’s 2448.50 bias-up target is in-play, and its test is likely to be probed to 2451.50 and higher. But back under 2440.00 would onece again open the door to seeking buyers at yet lower levels, like 2429.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Aug 25, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar is the week’s least busy day. Yet, it has the highest-profile and most influential items. They are the pre-open Durable Goods report, and the post-open Yellen remarks from Jackson Hole. Warning: She recently released her first day’s congressional testimony at 8:30 ET, instead of waiting until 10:00 to lift the embargo.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
*Janet Yellen Speaks
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET