Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2444.25 | 2443.00 |
| …would target | 2449.75 | 2448.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2437.00 | 2435.75 |
| …would target | 2431.00 | 2429.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sticking their toes in.
Outage at our site’s host has delayed this 10:35 post.
Well, that was near-perfect. Pre-open action had extended to touch yesterday’s 2448.50 high, which was probed post-open by a couple of ticks. The rally required maintaining the prior high’s break, along with 2446.50. Otherwise, the overnight test of 2438.00 would require an intraday test, too.
Back under 2445.00 made it official. The drop quickly extended to probe under this morning’s 2440.00 bias-down signal to 2437.00.
RSIs made higher lows, and 2440.00 was touched in time to invoke the grace period. It was recovered in time to trigger late no-bias. An offsetting test of the 2448.50 bias-up signal is in-play, already attacked up to 2446.50. It could be probed up to 2451.50, or another 10 points higher.
Having tested the bias-up signal at the open, it won’t become “unfinished business above” if left outstanding. Back under 2443.00 and 2440.00 would re-open the door to testing the 2435.25 overnight low, and would be vulnerable to extending down to Monday’s 2429.00 “lower prior highs.”
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s 14-point drop from 2454.75-2440.50 and Wednesday’s opening 2-point blip-down to 2438.75 weren’t likely to extend. In fact, the drop was retraced to 2447.75 at the noon hour’s high. No relevant Fibonacci measurements are in those legs, nor among any internal legs. The sloppiness kept us leery of extending the recovery, even after its first 6-point reaction down to 2441.50 was recovered entirely before the close. We didn’t have long to wait for proof, as the recovery was retraced entirely into the 2441.50 futures close.
Overnight action’s new info…
The recovery’s retracement was reversed through Wednesday’s Globex open, soon extending 6-7 points down to 2435.25. That was a quick 12 points, which was recovered back up to 2441.50 by midnight. Its 4-point reaction down was recovered to fresh overnight highs into Europe’s opens. Extending higher to 2445.25 retraced 61.8% of yesterday afternoon’s upleg. That’s now being probed by a point.
If, then…
The premise at yesterday’s close was that dipping any deeper would likely be short-lived, and recovered to complete a correction off of Monday’s low. Already rallying overnight would have been challenged by the gap above at Tuesday’s close. That gap would still be the case whenever it is met, if ever, but Wednesday’s pattern wasn’t yet prepared to make that happen. A deeper dip to test 2438.00 had become necessary. Having tested it twice overnight — initially to within 3 ticks of this morning’s bias-down target, and then ahead of Europe’s opens, the question is whether its intraday test is also needed. There’s room up to 2446.50 before the answer is likely “no.” Back under yesterday’s 2442.50 cash session close would make an intraday dip likely.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2446.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2448.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2443.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2440.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2438.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s market tour where are we 4625 being tested 4625 is four and a half points positive territory versus yeah that’s right bounce bounce and shut down to 30 that down to 40 something non-specific 238 but this 38 actually have to be touched intraday Tim completed that test what we ought to know soon because the measurements of this rally basically put a line in the sand at 4650 if today’s open can get out of up 4650 then we get out of the very big magnetic attraction down 238 or at least risk down 238 it’s a lot of risk unusual amount get out of and will be able to put that aside play we are from it alright any questions about any of that let me know meanwhile real quickly through currency reasserting its downside pound didn’t Forum that Buy Signal that would have qualified above Tuesday’s High closing book Tuesdays how yesterday after knowing we’re going to be dipping French Lowe’s that plane down trending playing of support downtown and support support come too so we still have room for a bounce back up to that level and in fact that was likely and is playing out presumably but we can have to prove that Looney yesterday has anything about that.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2449.50 | 2448.50 |
| …would target | 2454.25 | 2453.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2440.75 | 2440.00 |
| …would target | 2435.50 | 2434.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday night’s drop measured 14 points from its early high to last-minute low. The open’s blip-down was momentarily another couple of points. The rest of Wednesday’s post-open action was less decisive. Bouncing 7 points through the morning was retraced 5 points through the afternoon, followed by another shallower reversal.
Was Wednesday’s action a pullback that consolidated Tuesday’s rally? This would allow one more upleg to develop that completes the correction off of Monday morning’s low. The upside potential to 2461.00 must still navigate the gap back up to Tuesday’s 2451.25 close, where resistance could already launch the next downleg.Gapping down Thursday would find little support at 2438.00 whose break would target Monday’s 2429.00 highs. A corrective bounce there would likely resolve down into the weekend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.