Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 11, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Retail Sales hasn’t been particularly influential for quite awhile, especially not without a surprise. It was surprising last month in its weakness, which influenced price action, so it will inhibit price action as the week starts.
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2740.75 | 2746.00 |
| …would target | 2746.50 | 2751.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2730.75 | 2735.50 |
| …would target | 2724.25 | 2729.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Anchored.
Gap down holds. Only holds.
Hovering at the 2741.50 bias-down target since Europe’s opens had formed a Descending Triangle. 
The knee-jerk reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report spiked down to 2730.00 and then probed lower to 2727.75. The next lower objective was met.
Bouncing through the open attacked 2738.00 before reversing down to fresh lows at 2726.50. Its reaction up to 2735.50 will have attracted reinforcement by printing any higher, targeting 2745.00 or 2748.00.
Back under 2730.00 would otherwise be credible for extending down to 2720.50. More credible than a buy signal, since only a buy signal has attracted reinforcements.
Meanwhile, 4 and almost 5 of the first hour’s opening 15-minute checkpoints overlapped the same relevant level — the 2732.00 opening print. If not for gapping down, this would signal a Dry Cleaners morning and suggest staying away. But having gapped open to a fresh extreme, it represents an anchor that is likely to be revisited regardless of the interim trending attempt.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Sunny side down.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
[All prices quoted basis Jun] Thursday night’s lowest lows in three weeks at 2766.75 wasn’t the market hunkering down defensively ahead of the day’s ECB events. It was chipping away at support, as if any remained. Both the likelihood for attempting to isolate the fresh lows, and the likelihood for the attempt to fail, were already obvious before the open. A bounce barely attacked 2782.25 where a sell signal was easily triggered before beginning to collapse into and out of the open. Simply for having revisited 2782.25 Wednesday, the next lower objective at 2758.75 was put into play. Thursday’s 10:15 bias timing window had blown through it to the collapse’s 2747.00 low. Stair-stepping back up to 2766.25 through the noon hour narrowly avoided triggering bias-up, which opened the door to another downleg. Fresh session lows next targeting 2739.00 encountered support upon attacking 2743.25, bouncing to 2754.00-2755.00 through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Pessimism is greeting this morning’s Employment Situation report, probing under yesterday’s lows. Which is unusual, as I had noted during yesterday’s post-close Market Wrap, that overnight action ahead of payrolls tends to be uneventful. But flat-to-lower ranging at the Globex open had soon dipped down to this morning’s 2748.75 bias-down signal and bounced back up to 2755.50. Trending down again greeted Eueope’s opens at the 2741.25 bias-down target, which is now being retested despite ranging sideways since then.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
[All prices quoted basis Jun] Resolving down from Thursday’s late bounce, and fulfilling 2739.00, would next target 2727.25 and 2720.50. The pessimism of already probing fresh lows overnight might be bullish from a contrarian perspective. So, a favorable knee-jerk reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report could first test 2758.75 as noise, or even “higher prior lows” at 2775.25. Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. And this being a Friday after having trended down sharply to a fresh multi-week extreme, intraday volatility is likely to persist well into the afternoon.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered ahead of an Employment Situation report.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2753.50 | 2758.75 |
| …would target | 2759.00 | 2764.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2743.50 | 2748.75 |
| …would target | 2736.00 | 2741.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED — VALUES ARE BASIS JUN | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.