Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Just beginning.
Post-open bounce snaps back down. A lot.
The pre-open test of 2459.00 was duplicated at the open. Its 5-point reaction up fulfilled the bounce to 2463.00 described in the Market Tour as being optimal before shorting. 
Potential for extending higher began deteriorating with every minute that didn’t leverage the bounce into a rally.
Potential for extending higher disappeared entirely as the 2461.50 bias-down signal failed to hold. Aided by a rumor (yesterday it was a headline) the drop extended down through the 2455.50 bias-down target in time to renew the signal. The renewed bias-down target at 2450.50 was soon tested down to 2449.75.
A corrective bounce has returned to 2450.50. Any lower low would essentially confirm this morning’s downleg remains intact, and intends to extend down considerably. Yes, this could be one of those days — relentless downtrending interrupted only briefly by substantial bounces.
Could this be a low, instead? The 2450.50 renewed bias-down target is essentially the halfway point back to last week’s lows. That’s not often durable. Back above 2457.50 would be more credible. And the gap back to Friday’s 2440.00 close wants to be filled, probably down to 2437.50. That doesn’t include last Thursday night’s lows that are likely to be tested, too, and broken on the way to 2425.24 and 2421.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Buyers only blipped.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up to 2469.50 was at or above the two prior sessions’ highs. It was maintained through the open, but not extended until triggering late bias-up. Extending higher into the noon hour peaked upon touching the morning’s 2474.00 bias-up target, which also satisfied an intraday test of 2471.00-2473.50. All of which tracked perfectly against the session’s topping template, including a reaction back down into the prior two sessions’ range at 2462.50. Headlines prevented the reaction from playing out naturally, which probably prevented the last 60-90 minutes from extending down to fresh lows. WedEX triggered passively bearish.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s 2462.50 low was retested soon after the Globex open. It held as the lower-end of a flat-to-higher range. Europe’s opens triggered a blip-up to 2468.50, which disappeared almost as quickly as it had appeared. More so, it retraced several ticks deeper than its origin, attacking the overnight and yesterday’s 2462.50 low.. then rejecting a 2-point blip up by spiking back down sharply to fresh lows at 2461.00.
If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s last downleg developed exclusively during the 10-15 minutes when the bias environment lapse comes within view. The actual 2:30 lapse didn’t extend the effort that was already underway. This is a bullish setup, essentially a stretched rubber band that snaps back. Which it did, but only to retrace a minimum 61.8% of the stretch. A more impressive snap is likely if sellers don’t control overnight action. So, are they? So far. Even the blip-up at Europe’s opens has bearish characteristics. The best evidence would be in testing the bias-down signal, and then triggering it, or not.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2467.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2471.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2466.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2461.50 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market or the critical question this morning is who owns the night and not decisive but it’s not buyers sellers haven’t produced a fresh low but they did take price back down here’s yesterday’s clothes here’s yesterday’s aloe and the overnight low that tested it read tested it remember this is typically a bullish setup bullish meaning that the selling pressure Lancer the back to hear developed not prematurely but it definitely had potential to be to extend it could only have attracted sponsorship which it didn’t did not had not at the right time at 2:30 so it turned out to be not necessarily week and it just fully extended now that did produce a reaction up at 2:30 as of 2:30 no fresh aloe the reaction up measured 61.8% retrace 61.8% of the drop so just a healthy constructive corrective bounce not quite the rubber band snap that it could be but it was the bare minimum if it’s going to be anything more it’s going to be obvious that it’s going to be more at the open and that didn’t get anywhere that premise didn’t improve it all last night tried to here’s your UPS opens Market Edmond ranging flat tire off the over of the overnight lows retest yesterday’s love the market had been ranging flat tire and then flipped up on Europe’s reactions Europe’s opens but only temporarily and have disappeared almost as quickly as it had appeared and more so because the origin has been retraced and that’s not letting go so again it’s not decisive who owned the night but it wasn’t buyers and it adds to the bearishness potential bearishness get for the open resumed yesterday’s USA afternoons to climb it adds to the bearishness having bounced to retest yesterday afternoon’s high without probing above it maintaining the probe above it also adding to this morning if there is any so biosignal but it’ll be a helpful indication as to whether sellers are we gaining controller or retaining control from yesterday afternoon’s reaction down and explaining that even deeper holding 2463 especially if 6150 had been touched already holding 2463 is probably going to be an indication that sellers art at least not this morning we’re gaining or asserting their control so the consequence if sellers do take control through the morning the consequence is to launch a new down like at least a retest Friday’s the Gap back to Friday’s close the overnight lows do constitute enough of a new trend extreme because there was a trend reversal signal can play so the overnight lows do constitute enough of a trend extreme Globex Trend extreme that that’s an attraction to and then of course there’s unfinished business below at 2425 this Gap or at least likely attraction to be probed by about four points and a 24-21 so 2421 up to 24 25 and albums it seems more tied to the gyro although it’s not producing fresh Lowe’s in fact producing a relative high or higher and higher low relative to the euro which is probing lowers we just saw in the extended actually much higher overnight basically 7960 that’s not a break out clothes and it’s from an island and so we expect the balance to fail 7960 7965 pretty critical area and pretty good candidate for a balance to fail it tested what would be the trigger that would tell us that the bounce it likely failed it is probably not going to be it’s really not going to be a good trigger intraday probably not going 1995 to the close is just refueling sellers for the bigger dip update the text of the first Tradepost real quickly and then send out this video but essentially she looks like sellers are decisively in control over night I’d like to see a bounce back up into the range a little bit back up to 63 don’t get too carried away otherwise this is going to create a gap down within the range that is difficult to extend out or at least reliable so what it right now to 6461 even gapping Down Under The Lord of the Rings you know if we don’t get down under 59 lot of support 59 this is not as yet.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2472.25 | 2471.00 |
| …would target | 2478.00 | 2476.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2462.75 | 2461.50 |
| …would target | 2456.75 | 2455.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The entire bearish scenario played-out Wednesday, to a point. From the first intraday test of 2471.00-2473.50 and holding it, to reversing down into the afternoon, structure and calculation observed the topping template.
But rather develop organically. the reversal down was triggered by headlines. That knee-jerk reaction crowd created an artificial response. It was very productive, but not necessarily strong-handed sponsorship. Dropping down to 2462.50 when the bias environment lapsing came within view did not attract reinforcements when the window’s lapsing actually began.
That’s a bullish setup, and entirely credible in context of the news reaction that crowded out sellers. But the last downleg was only retraced 61.8%, and not actually reversed. So, if sellers don’t retake control overnight, then Wednesday’s highs will be either attacked or retested.
Meanwhile, the WedEX (Wednesday Expiration) signal triggered, passively bearish. I describe why in the Wrap video. Also described there is why the signal can become actively bullish by proxy of gapping up to Wednesday’s highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Choppy overnight action amid ECB “trial balloons” triggered a gap down Wednesday that tested Tuesday’s low. Bouncing before the FOMC Minutes filled the open’s gap, and then extended through it back to 1.1800 resistance. Not rejecting the late bounce early Thursday could extend it to fresh highs above 1.1945.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight dip back into the 1271.00-1281.00 range fluctuated narrowly Wednesday, until the Trump headlines triggered a surge through 1281.00. If valid for targeting a test of the highs’ Island, then Thursday must maintain Wednesday’s post-close FOMC reaction through 1285.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite not recovering Tuesday’s test of the 16.60 pullback limit to close back above 16.70, Wednesday morning rallied through it as if the bottom is already in, testing 17.00.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping overnight back down to Tuesday’s low stopped short of touching it, let alone piercing it down to 153-18. The morning’s had already recovered to Tuesday’s test of 154-10 before the Trump headlines triggered a surge up to 154-30 ahead of the FOMC Minutes release. Any higher close would signal a new rally leg underway.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having firmed in reaction to Tuesday’s post-close API, knee-jerk reaction to Wednesday morning’s EIA pierced a fresh high up to 48.00. It snapped back down to and through Tuesday’s ~47.00 lows, potentially resuming the 48.25 sell signal.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s bounce from testing 2.92 wasn’t exploited overnight, as Wednesday opened under 2.91 and targeting 2.81-2.82.