Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… All done?
Upside targets met, and held. And reversed.
The only template still working at the open was an intraday retest of 2471.00-2473.50, and its vulnerability to reversing into a new downleg. Even the 2468.50 bias-up signal joined in, targeting 2474.00.
2474.00 was met soon after noon. I reiterated in the chaRTroom my warning from this morning, 
that the corrective bounce from last week’s low may have completed. Satisfying buying pressure while 1-minute RSI diverged negatively didn’t help. But new sponsorship would be especially difficult to attract with FOMC Minutes just ahead.
Price had backed off already before (Trump) headlines triggered a drop. It extended down in time to test this afternoon’s 2467.50 bias-down signal. The signal held through 1:20 to avoid triggering.
Then 2467.50 was probed by nearly 2 points but was still overlapped at 1:30. Any lower would have invalidated the no-bias that had triggered at 1:20. Could there be a reaction up on FOMC? Perhaps. But probably no more than a correction, because ending its inhibiting role will be replaced by a new one as the headlines play out.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Aug 17, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday morning’s Philly Fed is the only regional survey with a reliable track record for influencing price action. Any reaction to it would likely be duplicated by later reports, if not also in reaction to either of the afternoon’s two Fed speakers.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
1:00 PM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
1:45 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2476.00 | 2474.75 |
| …would target | 2484.50 | 2480.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2468.75 | 2467.50 |
| …would target | 2463.25 | 2462.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up, probing higher, but not extending.
Rejection and extension both ruled out.
Having retested the rally’s 2471.00-2473.50 objective Tuesday night, exceeding it all but requires probing above it overnight, too. Its lower-end was touched last night, so retesting it pre-open would have likely extended to greet the open much higher.
It wasn’t retested pre-open, so no morning surge. One of the two remaining scenarios could be ruled out, too, since the open wasn’t greeted in decline.
Which leaves the scenario likely in-play now, which is an intraday retest of 2471.00-2473.50. The 2468.50 bias-up signal just triggered late, targeting 2474.00. Back under 2467.50 would start to suggest the late bias signal is failing, and that testing only the lower-end of 2471.00-2473.50 will suffice.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Already volatile.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s choppy sideways range had come within 1 point of the critical 2459.00 trend change signal. That was while trying to fulfill its test, which became required by the morning’s bias parameters (it became “unfinished business below”). Tuesday’s 2468.50 opening high was attacked to within 1 point by a late surge. That was while trying to fulfill its test, which was barely triggered by the afternoon bias exit. All of which developed under the overnight rally’s test of its 2471.00-2473.50 objective.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late surge was immediately retraced 6 points back down to 2461.50. Already recovering into Europe’s opens, extending higher has probed 2468.50 up to 2471.25. Its reaction down is testing 2468.50 as support.
If, then…
Testing the rally’s 2471.00-2473.50 objective overnight before Tuesday’s session didn’t prevent retesting it intraday. That test would likely hold. Retesting it overnight is likely to probe higher — until the open, when its retest would be likely to hold. So, extending the current retest of 2471.00-2473.50 all but requires it to be underway pre-open. None of which would ensure maintaining the higher probe, or protecting against reversing back down sharply, if not already reversing down pre-open like yesterday — the overnight rally is being attributed to an ECB “trial balloon,” which isn’t exactly a stable base. Regardless, the morning will be motivated to seek some sort of equilibrium level ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2471.00 would be likely to trigger the 2468.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2465.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market or look at the one minute chart looks like a nice little rally going it’s not small it is 9 points more than under 62 actually 6150 the overnight low to 7125 actually back into yesterday’s pre-open I look over here on the left there’s a 9 Minute chart you can see the overnight rally Monday night’s rally that or Sunday night’s rally in the Monday’s range Monday night’s rally into the overnight High satisfying the 7173 diphtheria to within a tick not retested intra dated and have to be still doesn’t have to be if it’s retested in the same timing windows retested it’s an overnight test if it’s retested overnight it will likely be rude test or be exceeded intraday here’s where that comes out in the bigger picture there’s last Tuesday’s key reversal or pivot reversal started the day with a gap down rally do a fresh Trend extreme and end of the day under the gap down as always the setup gives us almost always gives us a great timing on an immediate move under way of substance and that’s what is tracing and Celine likely enough to keep an eye on and that is and will be all over it and discussion on the in the chartroom give the open is greeted anywhere really back under present levels back under 6850 back under 66 creamy open any lower or probably already finished or tracing the or correcting that is last week’s drop and resuming the decline not resuming the decline otherwise again or to greet the open already above the 7173 50 Area probably 77 280 if there’s another leg pre-open up to 7780 it probably extends 290 otherwise the other likely scenario is that post Oakland isn’t greeted already into the open isn’t it already in Decline but also the pre open doesn’t yet retest last night’s high are the prior night time does and again please let me know if I former actually no yes I did test interesting level of support calculable support from the previous rally scheme it came close to my objective of 78 but not quite retested opportunity to old and form of better bottom gold didn’t get it needed to indicate that selling was satisfied that is 1271 before bouncing and the bouncing get high enough as it needed to indicate that momentum in Reverse. That’s 1285 overnight there’s more weakness or maybe another shot at it you know this is a 6180 retracement it’s a little deeper than that so I’m not really Holding Out for this pattern but having retraced sixty-one 8% of yesterday’s bounce or recovery attempt I’d still give 1285 s recovery a benefit of the doubt it 1285 is recovered to the clothes we will look at that as a bottom as momentum reversing up but there’s only there’s not even one bite of that Apple it’s not happening words extending down silver someone similarly did not did not recover enough it was testing 1670 after test early testing 1660 they came right into my pattern but it did not close above 1670 so it hasn’t extended but still an opportunity close by Beyonce song I will give it everything for the DAP the momentum Traverse tub same thing with the long blonde needed to close above 154 2220 went out testing it held its test actually at least held 154 3154 10 through the clothes is basically coincides of the 4825 and that could circumvent the cell signal I really see that business is really coiling it looks like coiling I know but it’s not this is too organized so I don’t expect for you 25 and 40 even touched to hold and to resume the decline AP reported yesterday after you say reports today it’s not being greeted from the position of strength and then natural gas weaker overnight remember if it wasn’t exploited yesterday one would be likely to it we can get into the.