Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2468.00 | 2466.75 |
| …would target | 2473.00 | 2471.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2461.00 | 2459.75 |
| …would target | 2454.50 | 2453.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review…Double-edged sword.
Overnight rally fulfills target, attracts sellers.
Any influence of overnight price action on intraday must be obvious during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. So, meeting the 2471.00-2473.50 objective overnight
and already retracing it left the open two divergent options.
The first option was to repeat the rally. The 2471.00-2473.50 objective is still resistance, but it can at least be retested intraday. The challenge was a pre-open bounce that already had retraced 61.8% back to the overnight high. That’s significant resistance. And it held.
The second option was to extend the overnight reversal down. More so, not to allow the opening 15 minutes to create any reversal setup, let alone to recover any relevant resistance.
The latter option developed, dipping back into yesterday afternoon’s range. And then deeper to its lower-end at 2462.50. Bounces have resolved down, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2459.00 bias-down signal, which has now been attacked to within 1 point.
By the way, testing 0the 2472.50 bias-up signal overnight doesn’t equate to testing it intraday. So, it wasn’t rejected intraday, and an offsetting test of the 2453.00 bias-down target is not required. But it’s still likely if 2459.00 is broken going into or coming out of the noon hour. Otherwise, we can’t yet rule out a bigger recovery.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s open was just 1 point under Sunday night’s 2455.50 high. The overnight rally resumed immediately, up to the morning’s 2466.50 high. Narrow ranging was supported by the recovery’s 2463.00 likeliest objective. Closing above it would have put into play the next higher objective at 2471.00-2473.50 — which it was, but not decisively. However, 2459.00 was recovered, which jeopardizes Thursday’s trend change signal.
Overnight action’s new info…
Not being triggered decisively didn’t prevent the 2471.00-2473.50 target from being met, but it might ensure its resistance holds. A surge began simultaneously with Asia’s opens. It extended without hesitation up to 2473.25. The trend didn’t delay reversing back down, into and out of Europe’s opens, piercing yesterday’s highs down to 24165.00. A reaction has bounced up to 2470.00, retracing 61.8% of the reversal down.
If, then…
Thursday’s trend change signal would be saved either by Tuesday’s open breaking back under 2459.00, or by closing under Tuesday under Monday’s 2454.00 low. Overnight action suggests that the open is safe, unless the reversal down were to resume soon. Retesting the overnight high would still encounter the same resistance, with no greater likelihood of exceeding it. Even if sellers aren’t controlling the open, just exiting the morning bias environment in negative territory would keep alive the downside potential.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2469.25 would be likely to trigger the 2467.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2466.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Tuesday at Stanford Tuesday’s morning market tour interesting the next tire objective after 63 which was actually supportive yesterday if you can see on the three minute chart supportive and then pierced very late in the day momentarily before returning to the ranges upper end and closing above sixty three overlapping it’s on a consolidation utilizing it to not decisively recovering and not to the point where we could reliably expect the next hour objective de me mad at 7173 50 but still being recovered at least led to with ages opens a test of 7173 actually 7350 which was test to do with in three Tix at the 24 also tested was the bias of Target and have the same outcome involved in that means today is and add pound had an opportunity pretty good opportunity here to hold the same 1:30 support but this Gap outstanding that wants to be filled really taking its time explaining that yesterday’s inside session didn’t indicate necessarily that the pattern was breaking lower that’s ineffectual pessimism that as I described yesterday it really stopped short of being optimal ineffectual pessimism because there was no actual test of a prior load Gap Town and spent the entire session negative territory that was but it didn’t Trend down so ineffectual pessimism could have been a little more so if one other feature that is probing April oh and then recovering were present but it wasn’t so the dollar is been rallying overnight pretty much on again less North Korea or less bearish Outlook from North Korea testing support it doesn’t help the Bears case for the purpose of the top but it does require if there is no topping here for there to be almost immediate recovery open this morning a new one got to get back out above 1285 and above 1290 so absent an immediate pretty much immediate recovery above 1290 the risk is that this test of 12 8150 the support weird that might happen once again 1305 leaving a gap so the burden of proof is on overnight they’re not testing support how much.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2459.50 | 2467.25 |
| …would target | 2474.50 | 2472.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2461.00 | 2459.00 |
| …would target | 2455.25 | 2453.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Sunday night’s relentless, single-minded trending had paused at 2455.50 several hours before Monday’s open. It resumed immediately, and peaked at 2466.50 during the morning’s bias environment. Ranging narrowly back down to 2463.00 finally probed down a couple of points while the bias environment was lapsing. But only momentarily, and eventually recovered back to the range’s upper-end.
Ultimately, a last-minute attack on the morning’s 2466.50 high was reversed by a last-second probe under 2463.00. The next higher objective at 2471.00-2473.50 was not put into play. That’s not necessarily bearish. The late probe down to 2461.00 never extended to close under 2459.00, so Thursday’s trend change signal is in jeopardy. It would be saved either by Tuesday’s open breaking back under 2459.00, or by closing under Tuesday under Monday’s 2454.00 low.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.