Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s break back above 1.1720 resistance was suspicious because it originated from an extended test of “lower prior highs.” Monday’s open gapped down to 1.1720 and didn’t recover, suggesting that momentum remains pointed down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s drop to the 1285.00 pullback limit held for Monday morning, but only to hold 1290.00 and not yet to bounce back up to Friday’s close. Potential to 1305.00 otherwise remains intact.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s dip attacked the 16.90 low of last week’s test of the 17.05 pullback limit. Monday’s open began recovering and the morning extended back into positive territory, marginalizing sellers for another day.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness was probably motivated by a flight-from-quality during the stock rally. Gapping down to the 154-30 pullback limit held, and despite the rally persisting throughout the morning, the gap back up to Friday’s close was nearly filled above 155-10. .
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s test of the 48.25 sell signal had held, but didn’t recover the two-week long Triangle’s lower-end. Monday morning improved back up to the Triangle’s apex at 49.15. That corrected the first drop, and resolved down into Monday afternoon probing fresh lows under 47.74. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm the pattern has rolled over.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Room down to 2.91-2.92 was tested through Monday morning’s steep opening slide. Firming through the noon hour avoided closing lower, which would still target 2.81-2.82.
Mid-day Update… Pausing for effect.
Narrowly sideways into and out of the noon hour.
The open’s rally made it to 2466.50. The bias environment exit needed to hold 2463.00 to maintain potential for extending up to 2471.00-2473.50. It was attacked to within 2 ticks, and the rally never resumed.
Neither has it been rejected. Not, yet.
That’s not decisive enough to confirm higher targets in-play. Or, that Thursday’s trend change won’t attract the close back under 2459.00. At least a couple of attempts to trigger a new rally leg have failed. Meanwhile, exiting the afternoon bias environment under 2463.00 would be credible for reversing momentum down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 15, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s pre-open Retail Sales isn’t often influential to price action, but has had a higher profile for its input into Fed decisions. Any obvious reaction to it is likely to be duplicated by the morning’s later reports.
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2470.00 | 2468.00 |
| …would target | 2474.75 | 2473.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2462.25 | 2460.50 |
| …would target | 2457.50 | 2455.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Up the down staircase, of course.
Overnight rally extends uninterrupted.
When relentless, one-way overnight trending is reversed intraday, it tends to be reversed almost immediately at the open.
Therefore, not immediately reversing down through the open would be bullish. And it was likely to test room for noise up to 2457.50, if not also extend to test 2463.00 and potentially 2471.00-2473.50.
Which the open did. Mostly, so far.
Hovering just under the 2455.50 overnight high surged to fresh highs through the open. The bullish strategy was to get long immediately and to monitor for a reversal setup at 2457.50. None developed. Indeed, 1-minute RSI diverging negatively was bullish in context of persistently overbought 3-minute RSI. Resistance at 2463.00 was attacked before 3-minute RSI left overbought.
Now 2463.00 is being probed by 3 points. That doesn’t ensure fulfilling potential to 2471.00-2473.50. We’ll let pullback limits guide that, and the nearest now is 2464.75. Regardless, Thursday’s trend change signal does have an interest in today’s close being back under 2459.00.