Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2477.50 | 2474.75 |
| …would target | 2482.75 | 2480.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2470.25 | 2467.50. |
| …would target | 2464.25 | 2461.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
All of the overnight and intraday sessions following Tuesday’s plunge were spent in negative territory. Sharply lower lows were probed during both. Each bounced only to attack or to pierce Tuesday’s low. Even the late rally stopped 1 tick short of filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s 2472.00-2473.00 close.
It’s definitely pessimism. But is it bearish, or is it only “ineffectual pessimism”?
Remaining glued to Tuesday’s 2467.50 low doesn’t suggest the breaks lower have strong-handed selling sponsorship. The afternoon’s 2462.50 low holding 3 points above the morning’s low doesn’t reflect a lot of new selling pressure.
All of which would have been bullish going forward, until the late rally. While it only attacked yesterday’s close, it did at least attack yesterday’s close. With fresh session highs. Then futures continued climbing to attack 2474.00.
Sellers are too weak-handed to resume the decline without first bouncing, either to 2474.00 or to 2478.00. That said, that WAS said before the late rally had extended so far, and so late as to still be weak-handed. Gapping down Thursday under Wednesday afternoon’s ~2463.00 lows could form a “session-long decline” that launches the next downleg.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Slightly lower lows Wednesday didn’t extend beyond the “lower prior highs” that must hold to maintain potential for one more fresh high in the 1.1945-1.1970 area.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up back to last week’s 1280.00 prior highs fluctuated there intraday, leaving gaps outstanding below to at least 1271.00 before any further rally would be credible for gaining traction.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday to last week’s 16.85 highs fluctuated there through the day. Closing any higher would have been bullish before the interim collapse, but now there are gaps outstanding below. At least a dip to 16.60 is likely.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up probed the prior high and tested the longstanding 155-08 objective, neutralizing its attraction. Closing back under 154-30 would suggest the retest and neutralization will hold for a top to form, and 154-16 was already being tested into the afternoon. Somehow closing Thursday above Wednesday’s high would invalidate Wednesday’s weaker close.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Intraday action continues to lack volatility as the ranging persists between 48.25-50.10. The calm seems eerie during the volatility being seen elsewhere, but that is not unusual, and it is often followed by hyper-volatility that compensates for the delay.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s second consecutive higher close launched a gap up Wednesday that trended higher intraday to attack 2.92 resistance. The bottom has Island-like characteristics that suggest its 2.82 “lower prior high” will be retested. That would not be inappropriate in reaction to Thursday’s EIA report, which is being greeted from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Treading water.
Bounce back up to yesterday’s low still holding.
The morning’s bounces had attacked and pierced yesterday’s late 2467.50 low as resistance. The bounces were shallow enough to maintain the downward momentum, but suspiciously numerous. The last reaction down was suspiciously shallow, holding 2463.50. Sellers weren’t exploiting the gap down.
The bias environment exit squeezed in one more bounce back up to its 2469.25 bias-down signal. The noon hour fluctuated around it initially, then reacted down from it eventually. So, buyers failed to exploit their opportunity, too.
Now the afternoon has triggered no-bias. There’s room to dip to the 2464.50 bias-down signal while awaiting the bias environment lapsing. This would be optimal for keeping live potential for a new downleg today. That potential disappears if fresh session highs were to do more than just fill the gap back up to yesterday’s 2472.00-2473.00 close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Aug 10, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s econ calendar is varied. The morning’s PPI is reliable for influencing price action. So is the mid-morning Fed speaker. And the noon hour ends with the 30-year auction, which usually inhibits price action until its results.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET