Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2473.25 | 2470.50 |
| …would target | 2478.25 | 2475.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2467.25 | 2464.50 |
| …would target | 2461.25 | 2458.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL, | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Must dig deeper.
But how big of an interim bounce?
The choppy 2460.00-2465.00 pre-open range tried breaking higher at the open. That only stretched the rubber band to snap back down, from 2466.50 to 2459.50 during the opening 15 minutes. But only temporarily, as another bounce soon attacked 2468.00.
Ultimately, bias-down did trigger. The 2469.25 bias-down signal wasn’t even attacked until minutes ago, to within 1 tick. And that was the third recovery effort, following two that failed during their timing window, so dooming this one to failure.
Back under 2465.50 would start to signal this third recovery effort was already reversing down. The likely consequence is to launch a new downleg — not just to retest the 2458.50 area down to 2455.75, but to break it on the way down to 2445.75.
Meanwhile, a bigger bounce could yet fill the gap back to yesterday’s 2472.00-2473.00 close. Extending higher into an actual recovery isn’t likely. So, extending higher into an actual recovery would be that much more powerful.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… No hesitation
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap down was in an uptrend, and not within a range, thanks to Monday’s intraday rally that had closed at session highs piercing the ongoing range’s upper-end. This distinction enables labeling the session’s other key features — probing new highs, then closing under the gap down — as a Pivot Reversal. The substantial rally and therefore substantial reversal aren’t key features. More important is that the rally was “no-bias trending” sponsored by weak hands. And that the 2488.50 high neutralized the attraction to 2484.00, leaving no “unfinished business above.” The high’s overbought RSIs printed during the noon hour, so don’t require a retest.
Overnight action’s new info…
A last-minute bounce from 2467.50 up to 2473.00 was quickly rejected by gapping back down to Tuesday’s late low. And then soon trending through it to 2461.50. A rally greeted Europe’s opens at 2468.00, which triggered a quick retracement of the rally. A bounce up to 2465.50 was reversed down to 2459.00. It has reacted back up to 2465.50.
If, then…
Last night’s first low at 2461.50 is also a relevant level from the ranging. Next below it is 2458.50, which has been attacked to within 2-3 ticks. Only a couple of ticks, but enough to undermine the credibility of a recovery attempt. Meanwhile, the last formation has formed an inverted Head & Shoulders. The pattern can be influential intraday during its opening 15 minutes..That’s a long way away, making a retest of the low likelier, thereby destroying the Head & Shoulders. Above all else is yesterday’s Pivot Reversal, which tends to extend immediately, and has.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2461.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2462.745 bias-down target by 10:!5, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2463.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2469.25 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
Alright good morning and welcome it is Wednesday at 7 for Wednesday’s Morning Market or and we have follow through yesterday is Pivot reversal pattern which gapped down in an uptrend rallied new trend extreme and then close down to the gap down forming a pivot reversal regardless of the substantiality up leg or down leg just those three features within the context of trending form the pivot reversal it certainly didn’t help matters for for maintaining the rally that the rally tried to extend and no bias trending that was sponsored by week and that doomed it to fill your pretty much but it’s a pattern that tends to follow through and mediately and in fact it would take a look at the overnight it has fault that I mean literally did fall through immediately extending that a 61-50 that’s been a relevant level the last several weeks bouncing 268 where at your abs opens triggered another downdraft back to the low and threw it to within a couple pics of 5850 which has been nearly escaped a couple times notice that an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern has formed here at the low and inverted head and shoulders and it is contextual a correct it’s developing on a retest of a prior low it is symmetrical trending shoulders but level neckline as I said symmetry is well between the duration of their of either side’s development 5850 and hasn’t been touched in a couple level 78 and we know real news unless something external happens or unexpected unscheduled nothing on the calendar that has that kind of influence okay so the markets Aussie lower is it going to break this range if this digging deep overnight where to recover back above 79 that would be bullish otherwise we’re headed to 78 pound still trending down this Capital want to be filled which is interesting that were sitting now at prior Lowe’s so and literally testing the 130 level that had allowed that last rally leg to be identified Looney not losing ground but we don’t have a bottoming pattern in here today or one day of stability is not about him in better and the Euro also stable relative to yesterday not in positive territory but there’s welding to hold this very relevant level golden yesterday and managing them to close one capital influential so .
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2480.00 | 2477.25 |
| …would target | 2485.00 | 2482.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2472.00 | 2469.25 |
| …would target | 2465.50 | 2462.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
We’ve been here before. We’re back there again, and then some.
We’ve closed sessions with no “unfinished business above” outstanding. Tuesday’s 2488.50 high satisfied the prior high’s retest up to a minimum 2484.00. Overbought RSIs last printed during the noon hour, so don’t require a retest.
This instance has the added bearishness of having formed a “Pivot Reversal” which I describe in detail during the Market Wrap recording. Gapping up above 2478.00 Wednesday would go a long way to invalidating the bearish setup. Along way toward it, but ot all the way, which would be done by closing above 2484.00.
Extending down instead has plenty of unfinished business below. The most central of which is a gap back down to 2425.00, which shouldn’t be filled at this stage unless much lower objectives are in-play.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.