Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Coming, or going?
Next lower objective quickly met.
I described during the pre-open Market Tour that an attempt to isolate the overnight lower lows would likely fail. 
At least, anything short of recovering 2777.00. I also noted my expectation for the market to once again respond choppily if not poorly to ECB Chair Draghi’s press conference.
So, the ECB policy statement reaction allowed me to label a resistance for fading at 2774.00. Its test held, but a blip-up to 2776.25 quickly resolved down sharply. The open was greeted back under the 2769.00 bias-down signal at 2765.50, in the process of collapsing down to 2745.25. It was eventually probed down to 2741.75.
Failing to hold 2777.00 yesterday had dictated the next lower objective in-play at 2753.50. It’s now being tested as resistance. There’s potential for a bigger corrective bounce, but only a corrective bounce. Back under 2747.25 and 2744.75 would signal the decline had resumed with its next objective being 2733.75, and potentially 2715.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Digging deeper.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s brief probe under its intraday low down to 2781.50 had been recovered pre-open to test Tuesday’s 2789.00-2792.00 close. But already slipping back into negative territory through Wednesday’s open extended down through the morning and noon hour. The afternoon bias environment was greeted sharply lower at 2769.50. Its 9-point bounce gained no traction (remaining within the noon hour’s range and entering the final hour within the bias environment’s range). That resolved down to probe fresh lows down to 2768.50. Its reaction up was shallower, barely attacking 2777.00 instead of recovering it before settling back at session lows.
Overnight action’s new info…
The intraday decline resumed without hesitation and quickly met 2765.50. A bounce resolved down into Europe’s opens at 2761.50, the lowest levels in three weeks. “Lower prior highs” were barely touched, launching a bounce that is now testing 2766.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
There was no bullish reason to revisit 2777.00 again. Closing under it yesterday confirms the next lower objective in-play at 2753.50. Not necessarily in a straight line, which we’ll learn more about if the overnight test of three-week old lows either holds itself, or repeats their test intraday. Isolating the overnight probe of fresh lows could be bullish, but very suspicious without greeting the open above 2777.00. At least. Meanwhile, any isolation attempt would be vulnerable to reversing back down and extending.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2766.75 would be likely to trigger the 2769.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2761.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2763.75 bias-down target at 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal, essentially next targeting 2753.50.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2779.00 | 2779.00 |
| …would target | 2785.00 | 2785.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2768.75 | 2769.00 |
| …would target | 2763.50 | 2763.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
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Tuesday night’s brief probe under the intraday low down to 2781.50 had been recovered pre-open to test Tuesday’s 2789.00-2792.00 close. Slipping back into negative territory at the open extended down to greet the afternoon bias environment at 2769.50. A 9-point bounce gained no traction, remaining within the noon hour’s range and entering the final hour within the bias environment’s range. Probing fresh lows down to 2768.50 also reacted up, but shallower, barely attacking 2777.00 instead of recovering it.
There was no bullish reason to revisit 2777.00 again. Closing under it maintains the door opened intraday to the next lower objective at 2753.50. No hold-short or hold-long setup could be contemplated at the close, and gapping up Thursday can’t form a session-long rally. Simply gapping up and rallying anyway would leave “unfinished business” below. Somehow isolating an overnight probe of fresh lows could be bullish, but meanwhile would be vulnerable to extending down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s fresh low was early and recovered quickly back into the prior session’s range, keeping alive the 1.1350 buy signal if triggered through a close.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow hovering at recent lows for a third consecutive session without yet trying to bounce now makes at least some probe of a fresh low likely before a recovery attempt can be credible.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still hovering at recent lows for a third consecutive session now makes a dip to 15.00 likely before reversing up would be credible for gaining traction.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already recovering above Monday’s high on Tuesday had created potential for testing 145-05, which was attacked to within 1 tick Wednesday. A second consecutive higher close on Thursday would greet Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength. Otherwise, an intraday retest of Sunday night’s 143-17 low would be likely.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
One-week old uptrending support was already being overlapped before Wednesday’s open, and persisted intraday. Almost any initial strength Thursday or even overnight would be credible for at least retesting the 57.00 buy signal, which at this stage of the pattern should resolve in a breakout.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Piercing 2.89 overnight and pre-open still didn’t extend higher intraday, continuing to suggest caution of a deeper pullback which would be credible for extending down. But at least Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of weakness.