Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… The door is open.
Relevant support break maintained.
This morning’s 2777.25 bias-down target was probed by 2 points.
Its reaction up to 2784.25 was reversed back down through 2777.25 as the bias environment lapsed. And despite holding a test of this afternoon’s 2771.00 bias-down signal to trigger noN-bias, the break under 2777.25 was maintained.
The door is now open to extending the decline down to its next objective at 2753.50.
There was no bullish reason to have revisited 2777.25 last week, nor to repeat its test today. Isolating its test now requires closing back above a prior relative high, which at this point in the pattern is essentially 2784.25.
Meanwhile, the pattern is more vulnerable to resuming and extending the decline, without any requirement to await the bias window lapsing, since this is a noN-bias environment.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 7, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday morning’s ECB policy statement will likely be influential. And the more controversial it is, the likelier that price action will be influenced wildly by the later Draghi press conference. Meanwhile, two jobs related reports prep the market for Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*ECB policy statement / Draghi Q&A
7:45 AM / 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2780.50 | 2780.50 |
| …would target | 2786.00 | 2786.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2770.75 | 2771.00 |
| …would target | 2763.25 | 2763.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… On the precipice.
Bias-down target’s test is a decision-point.
Stretching the overnight recovery from 2781.50 up to 2792.75 didn’t ensure a post-open recovery. 
In fact, reversing down greeted the open back down at yesterday’s 2789.00 last-minute low, which offered no support. Attacking 2781.00 reacted up, by enough and in time to invoke the 2785.00 bias-down signal’s grace period.
2785.00 held as resistance to trigger late bias-down. Fresh lows at 10:30 ensured the 2777.25 bias-down target was in-play. And now it has been probed down to 2775.50.
There was no bullish reason to test 2777.00 last week, and no bullish reason to revisit it today. Maintaining its break would next target 2753.50. Under 2776.50 would start to signal that leg had begun.
Otherwise, isolating the 2777.00 test by exiting the bias environment above a relevant resistance could marginalize sellers for the day. Back above 2781.00 would be a start.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Deceptive noise, and a lot of it.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday night’s bounce up to 2799.00 was retraced to greet Tuesday’s open back under Monday’s late 2794.50 high. The open’s collapse attacked 2783.00 and recovered just as quickly. All of which was still within Monday’s final hour range. A lot of opening volatility, but no fresh extreme, often dooms the session to ranging. Trending attempts failed throughout the day as the balance of the session ranged choppily, widening to 2788.00-2796.00 only briefly. A late blip-up to 2797.00 was rejected through the cash session close down to 2789.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late dip extended immediately by the Globex open gapping down to test 2784.50. Extending gradually lower touched 2781.50 before midnight. Finally, it was the Tuesday’s first probe under Monday’s final hour range. But only temporarily, as price recovered to 2789.00 through Europe’s opens, hovering there since.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s last-minute slide and the overnight drop seem like trending, but that is deceptive, as price action remains within Monday’s final hour range. Unless Wednesday’s ADP and EIA produce evidence of intraday trending, continue exercising caution with exposure and sizing. The pattern still has no attractions or resolution requirements, whether in terms of price or time, all of which could change by either testing or breaking a bias signal.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2788.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2785.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2783.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.