Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2794.50 | 2794.75 |
| …would target | 2800.25 | 2800.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2784.50 | 2785.00 |
| …would target | 2776.75 | 2777.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Despite backing off of its late 2794.50 high to 2792.00, Monday afternoon’s bounce had potential for extending to test 2798.00. It was probed by 1 point overnight and then retraced back down under 2794.50 at Tuesday’s open. A post-open collapse attacked 2783.00 but it recovered just as quickly.
Post-open volatility had developed entirely within Monday’s final hour range, suggesting it was only noise, and warning to be suspicious of trending attempts. The balance of the session ranged choppily, widening to 2788.00-2796.00 only briefly. A late blip-up above 2796.00 was reversed to close back down into negative territory at the 2790.00 cash session close, and futures slid another point.
Although not required or even very likely, it’s a little surprising that Tuesday didn’t at least attack 2803.00-2805.00. Sellers hadn’t exploited the post-open collapse, and intraday opportunities to decline were held, as if stronger-handed sellers are still higher. Even the late 7-1/2 point collapse remained within the range.
The pattern still has no attractions or resolution requirements, whether in terms of price or time. Continue being cautious with entries and sizing. Wednesday’s ADP and EIA should enhance volatility, but we’ll need more evidence of trending.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping Monday back down to the two-week old 1.1333 buy signal had held through the close. But its reaction never even attacked the 1.1375 buy signal before probing lower to attack 1.1300 Tuesday. Back above 1.1350 Wednesday would be compelling for long-entry, but the burden of proof would still be on buyers.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Slightly lower lows overnight were recovered back into Monday’s range Tuesday, but not extended as the potential for an Island bottom becomes less. So, the bullish scenario would bounce temporarily before a second upleg could gain traction.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow flat-to-lower-to-flat ranging Tuesday kept the recent decline from extending through support 15.10, and keeps alive potential for recovering 15.40 to launch a recovery.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s bounce to resistance had seemed obligatory considering the flight-to-safety. Tuesday’s reaction down wasn’t substantial, but doesn’t negate the potential for dipping deeper to retest Sunday night’s lows.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s early test of the 57.00 buy signal wasn’t any more successful than Monday’s, or any more consequential as the balance of the session only ranged sideways again. The post-close API and Wednesday EIA report aren’t being greeted from a position of strength, but not from a position of weakness either.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s fresh high testing 2.89 had been isolated by Monday’s open, and not revisited until Monday night. Its retest was also isolated, and not repeated post-open. This setup undermines the upside potential for being unable to exploit the strength, and would be bearish if its reaction were extended down.
Mid-day Update… Muck and mire.
Narrow choppy range persists.
My earlier warning remains as true, and its note remains on the chaRTroom screen: Be cautious with entries and sizing. This is still a no-bias environment, and still lacks an attraction. Which explains why price action remains within yesterday’s 2783.00-2795.00 final hour range — with one brief probe above it to 2796.00 before noon.
Now fresh afternoon lows are testing the 2788.00 bias-down signal. It should define the window’s low, and 1-minute RSI is making a higher low. So, the narrow range may be getting narrower.
The afternoon bias environment is the last pure intraday window. The final 60-90 minutes starts becoming more vulnerable to forward-looking influences. If the range does break in either direction, I would expect higher because sellers haven’t exploited 2-3 opportunities to resolve down. But any break higher would still be vulnerable to resolving down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 6, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s econ calendar is high-profile and influential. ADP starts off with a snapshot of market sentiment ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Then two afternoon Fed speakers appear before the afternoon’s Beige Book data.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
12:00 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks
12:10 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET