Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap up probed Friday’s 1.1718 high and the 1.1730 minimum objective of its retest. Trending back down nearly filled the gap back down to Monday’s 1.1677 close. Tuesday’s high or its gap didn’t require a retest, the objective of its retest was neutralized, and filling the gap below stopped optimistically short. Back under 1.1650 would seal a top and reverse the trend down.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The pullback from Monday’s gap up was extended a little deeper overnight to test 1249.00. Tuesday’s opening bounce was retraced for a retest of 1249.00. There’s room down to 1244.00 but not necessary to touch it before a fresh high fulfills the 1259.70 objective.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A steep overnight pullback to 16.22 was recovered into and out of Tuesday’s open and extended to a fresh high at 16.60. Its reaction down back under Monday’s high suggests that upside momentum is waning, and back under 16.20 would invalidate the 16.70 objective.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s reaction down from only attacking the 155-06 objective was not in itself bearish. But it didn’t prevent overnight weakness that gapped down Tuesday under 154-28 support and extended back down to test the original 153-00 buy signal. All ahead of the FOMC policy statement. Not already rallying Wednesday morning could require retesting the 151-18 low.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s bounce back up to 46.25 resistance extended higher into Tuesday’s opening test of 47.25, and higher through the morning. Back under 46.25 would signal that topping was resolving down. Otherwise, the next opportunity for launching a downleg is from 48.25.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending down to 2.88 Monday allowed the buy signal to be lowered to 2.95. Tuesday’s gap up tested it and hovered there throughout the morning. there is no bullish reason to further delay triggering it and extending higher.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 26, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday morning’s calendar isn’t very busy. Its post-open housing sector report may be interesting in comparison to Tuesday’s two looks. But the real attraction will come from the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2481.25 | 2478.75 |
| …would target | 2486.75 | 2484.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2473.50 | 2471.00 |
| …would target | 2468.50 | 2466.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TEST BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Restraining the optimism.
Gap up retraces, but not reverses.
Rallying out of Europe’s opens ultimately extended 10-11 points. Post-open enthusiasm did not follow. The 2478.00 opening print added a single tick before reversing back under this morning’s 2477.00 bias-up target and Thursday’s 2476.25 new Globex trend extreme.
The reaction also probed under “lower prior highs” down to 2472.50. It was already a little late for only threatening to reject the 2472.00 bias-up signal, let alone not even touching it. So it triggered. This is a bias-up environment, whose target has been met.
Overbought RSIs at the 2478.25 high don’t require being retested since they develope3d during the open. But the 2478.00 opening print above all prior highs does require being filled. At least, at some point, not always before a more significant reaction down.
Filling the open’s 2478.00 gap without exiting the bias environment above the open’s high would suggest a top is forming. Meanwhile, back under 2473.75 at any time would start to signal momentum reversing down for a deeper correction.
Updated chaRTroom Link
The updated chaRTroom link was not added to The First Trade blog post. That has now been corrected, and I apologize for any inconvenience that may have caused. See you soon…