Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Making its move.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s open trended down, and then so did the balance of the morning, essentially ignoring a bullish WedEX. The selling ended upon touching the 2463.50 overnight low as the morning bias environment began lapsing. The balance of the session session rallied back to the 2470.00 overnight high, and through it briefly. Its reaction down ended the cash session at the 2469.00 opening print.
Overnight action’s new info…
Once again taking its cue from overseas, Globex initially ranged narrowly around 2468.00. A last-minute dip greeted Europe’s opens at 2466.75 which triggered a 5-point rally to now attack 2473.00. That’s 1-2 ticks short of the natural resistance of a retracement of Thursday afternoon’s range.
If, then…
Delaying follow-through to Friday’s break lower had made its dip likely to recover, or else required the break to gap down. It’s not gapping down. Delaying the recovery of Friday’s break lower made its reaction up likely to retest its origin, which would produce a new high. Resistance from Thursday’s range up to 2474.50 might interfere, but the burden of proof is on sellers.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2473.50 would be likely to trigger the 2472.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2469.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s morning market tour I took long enough but we’ve got a rally going as has been the case often but recently consistently the game gets going with Europe’s opens here’s the night before for instance the night before I think for yourself but anyway it is producing the anticipated break higher the brake higher was anticipated because Friday’s break lower which didn’t gain any traction already if it were going to extend down needed to extend down yesterday and didn’t produced instead and inside day and the delay when there’s a gap left outstanding in the direction of the trend the delay and extending down from creating that Gap tends to fill that Gap next and as a consequence there’s also increased potential to retest just the origin of that break lower that it may not be like seem to be a substantial break lower or I’m going down Trend and that doesn’t make it any easier or likelier to be retraced but it’s just a simple principle and so the origin of the brake lower which is basically the highs is next in line to be tested as opposed to Breaking lower breaking lower compensating for the delay and extending down extending Friday’s break lower down should cat down at this morning but as you can see not that’s not really indicated here were probing above the last two sessions highs probing about the last two sessions High’s into Friday’s range Thursday’s ranges back here there’s a gap back to 7150 clothes that’s natural resistance there are 61 a treatment back into its range back into its afternoon range that is that’s 24.73 7325 or within a tick or two of that 61 a treatment resistance there is a new Globex Trend extreme outstanding historically mandated to be retested intraday yet to be were tested at all it’s 7625 from before Thursday’s open so there’s attractions above and play the traction below the pound not extending at the moment yesterday’s break higher but it does have attractions above essentially back to a new high the Looney has just continued stretching that rubber band and now that gyro which has left the Gap outstanding Friday’s hi it’s not a gap that requires being filled because of how was created opening within its own range holding its own range intraday but if it is for tested which any delay and extending down will then require if it is were tested it will be likely to be retested up to Once 11731 1755 gold stop just a little short of its 1259 17 x Tire Target next hour driving about 12:36 and 12:44 yesterday and it’s reaction down at the time how old the gapping pressure without damaging pausedback under again back under 4625 would resume the decline route and finally natural gas which is really extended this pull-back that is the maximum pull back at least on a closing basis preferably though at all down to 288 just needs to close web 295 to confirm that it held and that momentum is reversing up but that’s it for the pull back for the reaction down to continue to be classified as a full pack substantial is and maybe any questions go see you before they open .
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2474.50 | 2472.00 |
| …would target | 2479.50 | 2477.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2467.00 | 2464.50 |
| …would target | 2461.00 | 2458.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
It took long enough. No, seriously — just long enough. Fighting back from an overnight dip to 2463.50 had opened only slightly lower at 2469.00. But the morning only dipped back down to the overnight lows. and only to the overnight lows. Firming through much of the afternoon’s bias environment to 2468.00 stopped short of recovering. But firming into the bias environment exit extended higher upon entering the final hour, probing the morning’s high up to 2470.50.
All of which could have taken less time. But it couldn’t have taken any longer and still had time to recover. It took long enough.
Had Monday’s entire pattern developed during the morning alone, then the bullish WedEX would have been fulfilled. Not optimally, since Friday afternoon had already retraced a dip, which is what Monday’s entire session did. Optimal would have been to trend up after the open’s dip. Monday morning’s thorough tests of support did hold, but the window had closed before recovering, so it did not fulfill the bullish WedEX setup.
Nevertheless, a second consecutive pullback has failed to extend down. The delay suggests that upside attractions will now be more influential, first at 2474.50 and then new highs. Extending down anyway should still begin by gapping down, or at least by triggering the morning’s bias-down, targeting at least 2458.50.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Monday to the 1.1650 target that Friday had exceeded does suggest the probe above it was a blow-off top. Meanwhile, potential to 1.1730 wasn’t fulfilled by extending Friday’s rally, suggesting that a top is now forming.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing higher Sunday night extended Monday to within $1 of the 1259.70 target. Reacting down intraday filled the gap back down to Friday’s close, but didn’t reverse momentum down.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming overnight helps to confirm the 16.70 target remains intact. It also enabled a gap up to help absorbe post-open selling pressure without damaging the rally’s chart.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging Sunday night extended down Monday to 154-05, but didn’t reverse the trend down, as 155-06 remains in-play.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming Sunday night needed to close back under 46.25 for optimal confirmation the reaction down remains intact, and it was still being tested into the close. Breaking lower would next target 45.15 and probably its break, too.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having extended back under both recent gaps at 3.05 and 3.02, a retest of 2.92 became likelier. Sunday night essentially opened there and then probed lower Monday morning. Closing above 2.95 would trigger the next upleg, but closing first under 2.88 would make a recovery unlikely.
Mid-day Update… First to blink.
Still hovering at recent lows.
Friday afternoon’s retest of Thursday’s low wasn’t going to break lower, not after Friday morning had tried already and failed. That was Friday, and it was due to the “Friday Factors” which are a function of two days of illiquidity bearing down at an exponential pace. Strong-handed sponsorship isn’t changing its recently expressed opinion.
Now this is Monday. The only Monday Factor (there really are none) is that an entire week of liquidity lies ahead. Even if proved wrong later, it’s much easier to generate sponsorship. So, Thursday’s low is vulnerable again to breaking.
The vulnerability to breaking under Thursday’s low has one exception. It is that this morning’s open should have gapped down under it. But it didn’t. The vulnerability is equally matched by the vulnerability to rallying. Buyers are not marginalized.
Neither vulnerability may be exploited today. Having failed to exploit Friday’s support, the vulnerability for breaking lower would become greater. But the path down would still require gapping open under Thursday’s low (and lower). Meanwhile, breaking either end of this afternoon’s 2463.50-2459.25 bias signals before the close would be likely to trend in that direction.