Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 25, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is busy, but only one item is reliable for influencing price action. That’s the post-open Consumer Confidence, which is one of three released simultaneously. Two pre-open reports being released simultaneously are both housing sector — specifically, pricing metrics, which is also a glimpse into the consumer. They can be relevant if divergent from each other, or if confirming outlier data.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2471.75 | 2469.25 |
| …would target | 2477.00 | 2474.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2466.00 | 2463.50 |
| …would target | 2461.00 | 2458.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… No-bias, no bias-up.
Open’s dip ends on time, but bullish WedEX quite delayed.
The bullish WedEX influence remains intact so long as selling is essentially contained to the opening 15 minutes of volatility. The opening 15 minutes of volatility contained nothing but selling.
Dropping nearly 5 points from 2469.50 narrowly avoided touching the 2464.50 bias-down signal. It’s being touched now, but not in time for it to require an offsetting test of the 2472.00 bias-up signal. The 2464.50 bias-down signal also narrowly avoided being broken at 10:30 to invalidate the 10:15 signal.
Breaking 2464.50 this morning would be no-bias trending that requires a recovery, but it the bullish WedEX would be invalidated all the same. Meanwhile, this is the range’s lower-end. Recovering to 2472.00 isn’t required, but there’s that much room And at least 2469.50 should be recovered to comply with the bullish WedEX.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Starting on its back foot.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s opening dip was a test and retest of Thursday’s 2465.50 low. The dip was also a test of the morning’s 2463.50 bias-down target. Both held, and were recovered through the noon hour to 2470.00. Reacting down 4 points tried breaking Thursday’s low again. But Friday afternoon wasn’t going to accomplish something the morning had tried already and failed to do. Recovering through the last half-hour maintained a bullish WedEX influence.
Overnight action’s new info…
The briefest of blips-up at Sunday night’s open had soon reversed down, once again testing Thursday’s 2465.50 low. That was extended to attack 2363.50. Firming 4 points was reversed at Europe’s opens to retest 2363.50. But only temporarily, as the 2467.50 interim high is being recovered now.
If, then…
Friday afternoon wasn’t going to accomplish something that the morning had tried already and failed to do. Another attempt Monday morning shouldn’t have much luck, either. If the market is ready to break under 2465.50, then the open should maintain a gap under it, and extend down. Otherwise, holding its support through the open — or any support — would help to launch the morning’s bullish WedEX influence.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2466.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2464.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2462.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s morning market tour and we have one big influence one other influence that are between them I think not totally on disconnected from each other but between them I think going to dictate this morning of course the big influence and I say big influence meaning and top billing but it’s not the most influential it’s a very sporadic thing once a month the Wednesday expiration indicator wed x when X is bullish this time around it had a very very minor influence on Friday afternoon if we’re not yet assured of calling that and influence but at least coincidentally from the bias environments entry until the clothes price was biased up by the narrowest of definitions not trending up necessarily but biased up as in at least pull backs are recovered in this one was and if by if the wed x is fulfilled in this case bullish wed x is fulfilled even by the narrowest of definitions its influence on Monday morning should be aggressive not just absorbing a pull back but actually trending up in trending up obviously which brings us to the second influence and II influence is actually a more common one it’s the same influence in fact that we saw Friday morning that basically told us back here when we updated on Friday afternoon even here we were expecting or at least keeping the door wide open to the bullish when X is influence because sellers were doing something that they weren’t likely to get done and that was to break under level on a Friday afternoon that had been tested on a Friday morning and failed the break and that was just the previous low in this case it happened to be the previous day’s low 6550 tested pretty thoroughly including dip to what was the mornings bias down signal 6350 or Target and so that having held in the morning if they try something Friday morning and don’t get it done the odds are very low very low that’s going to succeed with wet sponsorship is left over Friday afternoon pretty high percentage trade how why is that influential this morning well because they’re trying it again they tried it again last night 6550 they tried it or after into out of Europe’s opens tried it again here 6550 even 6350 now has been touched again that was the relevant level Friday morning then ultimately to find the low some unfinished business below as well but here’s what what’s up in the middle of the Friday afternoon so we don’t have the greatest reliability the influence has nothing to do with the this isn’t Friday afternoon anymore it is new sponsorship so if 6550 this morning’s bias down signal itself 6450 if these levels don’t hold especially 6550 through the open 6450 s by Stalin signal triggers of course the bullish wed x no no bullets goes away and we expect first of all that it that if there is any Bounce It has nothing to do with that but secondly that the bullish wood axe is no longer influential so it’s very important that that 6550 hold its test if it’s even tested Post open and therefore does a as a similar reaction as with Friday afternoon just as aggressive actually as was the last half hours recovery throughout the morning but if it doesn’t and 6550 isn’t holding through the open then probably 6450 s going to break lower that is triggered by us down and we won’t be looking for a bullish wed x and by the way Friday Friday’s test Friday’s relevant test that held in the morning that was or I should say failed to break in the morning and so held its retest in the afternoon it’s going to break today we’re probably going to gap down under at so long as we stay away from gapping down under 6550 probably the bullish wed x prevails otherwise the downside is not limited mean there is 46 we already did test 46 isn’t actually Nursery there is at this point 58 59 5750 it’s not a little bit of downside but we don’t necessarily fall off the edge could silver that’s how much firmer overnight and is holding up but the point is it does have 16 70 and playgold as well as higher targets and play and its former overnight as well but closing in on the 12th 5970 Target Long Bond had resumed the rally on queue after a pause on Wednesday not all of it was maintained Thursday but it wasn’t reversed or reject it meanwhile be upside potential or objective 155 us-6 remains and play despite the overnight Paws again crude oil firmer here but still triggering a cell signal still trying to maintain the cell signal under 44.94 sorry 4515 would confirm at this point momentum has reversed and the objective being to retest the Lowe’s pattern not just lower prioritize at 4345 4355 do have outlined but actually retracement and potentially even a fresh low at this stage as long as the delay has been and finally natural gas which I just didn’t think we’re going to get out of here without feeling this Gap back to Monday’s clothes and potentially the next Gap lower and fact Friday sewing pressure extended even deeper than that so really this would have been an overnight low before before was it last Friday is open that tested 292 became likely to be retested as well and it is being rude tested overnight we can have lower the Buy Signal back to to 9850 that’s not that 292 Camp Road I mean there’s this gap down doesn’t require being filled we just looked at a gap like this in the Aussie only inverted because the Gap was created by gapping up to the upper end of the same range and closing within it or around that ranges extreme remember the Odyssey was the inverse of that the gap down was created by gapping still within the range and closing within the range so that Gap doesn’t have to be filled before extending down and so again and natural gas doesn’t have to fill this Gap didn’t have to fill this gap before extending up will now we returned to its orbit after being productive so now there is potential to fill that Gap this test of 292 isn’t already recovering back above 298 fairly short order preferably today okay any questions let me know and I will see you before the open good luck today .
Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/22/17) … Holding the highs.
No new high on a Friday. Not for lack of proximity, being one day off the high. Nor for lack of attraction above, there being a “new Globex trend extreme” outstanding. And the quasi-seasonality of expiration isn’t generally an obstacle to the prevailing trend. But the relationship among the major indexes has re-aligned with the last significant downturn. But first, the past two sessions’ hesitation should be shaken loose by Monday morning’s aggressively bullish WedEX influence. And the week’s smattering of high-profile earnings announcements will be rudely interrupted by Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement. We discuss those influences and more, in the context of charting and technical analysis insights, during this weekend’s Saturday Review…
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
ALGN, GOOGL, FB, GILD, CAT, UTX, AAOI, PCLN, ADBE, AVGO, V, MA
Alright good morning and welcome it is Saturday it’s time for this Saturday review that all things going very sorry for the very late to change in the meeting URL I honestly just don’t know what the Rhyme or Reason is and how it’ll be roses roses out but the one we were using last quite a while so I guess there’s that anyway what are the recent developments and what are the influences that that created and what are the possible outcomes as we go forward into this new week that has some external developments coming we have Wednesday Wednesday afternoon the fomc meeting it’s not a quarter it’s not am one of the three months that has a quarterly presser by the Federal Reserve chairman person we do have earnings quite a bit of earnings coming out Google is Monday a lot of Fortune 500 Dow components Tuesday AT&T McDonald’s 3M caterpillar United Technologies more fangs Facebook on Wednesday Koch Ford Chiliad Boeing Thursday P&G MasterCard in a long with the health of the companies we get glimpses or the market gets Clemson to the health economy or not just domestic but these are global companies metric out this week that with both companies that have reported look like about 2/3 had underperformed estimates that’s a function of estimates perhaps being too high but there are missing Amazon Intel Starbucks more high-profile widely held economically sensitive or performance portfolio performance sensitive stocks coming Thursday not a lot on Friday but some Heavy Hitters Merck Chevron Mobil Exxon Mobil so busy week in that regard and we can look for afternoons to be a little slow or narrow arranging it is unusual head of earnings coming after the close of high-profile company or high-profile companies coming after the close it is unusual to see something like this Wednesday afternoon that’s not an ordinary pattern for an afternoon and earnings season what is that that’s optimism that’s optimism and it is not arbitrarily placed it comes after Tuesday but Tuesday did Captain probe lower hold a test of Friday’s lower prioritize work 1 week ago today we were talking about this chart this chart that had surged to attack top of this down trending resistance was 24 5150 and hovering there through Friday morning that ineffectual pessimism more restrained optimism and I have a case from the contrarian perspective potentially bullish broke our Friday afternoon there were other reasons for that and if they were going to be any kind of immediate reaction retracement its objective would be Friday mornings lower Pryor High as well Monday didn’t do it Monday also didn’t extend Tuesday did it being a day delayed not only Friday mornings lower prioritize ever and Friday mornings range but as 61 retracement back into the consolidation Friday morning help to identify the what’s interesting is that that was a date and testing that nearest retraction support and it’s unusual that would suffice that this pattern should have developed Monday Tuesday this not even developed or had it also developed in a singular leg-before reversing down that would be irrelevant to us at this point it would be some price accident happened to develop we can call it a noise but because none of that is true because the pullback stayed away from the prior High because this then this high was exceeded by another hi this is all over night Globex this is a new Globex Trend extreme being a new globe extend extreme it is basically historically mandated to be retested intraday in other words go back to every new Globex friend extreme that is created with these conditions and eventually it’s were tested intraday not necessarily immediately it’s orrible timing tool but it does offer context similar to the same concept underlying over but are size or oversold are size and for that matter needing to be retested in many instances because it takes if this is going to develop or new trend extreme close on a Friday either all available strong handed participants at the time are making that happen and strong handed means they may be wrong and timing they don’t care about timing but they’re not going to let her reaction down go undefended they’ll buy it back up into a Friday it’s kind of the same thing but the opposite or the inverse heavyweight that all available strong headed person participants are choosing not to push back or allowing the move to persist or in some cases making it happen it just doesn’t happen in a vacuum and sew this new club in extreme 24/7 6185 has to be retested just because historico Lee they’ve all been rested if that’s a reason but in the interim there’s room for a pullback consolidation time no time into it whatsoever so what other optimism do we have well then optimism’s running a little short I mean it’s interesting the whole reason why I’m pointing out the optimism is because if we go back if we go back to what just launched this rally leg where we’re now identifying signs of optimism it’s this pessimism the pacifism pessimism is part of sewing and selling can get carried away with itself and be productive and be sponsored by strong hands it’s not a good in other words it applies everywhere it doesn’t necessarily lead to up anytime soon but we had 24 6350 as unfinished business left outstanding from Thursday morning that was a knee-jerk reaction to news that really took price down but it prevented it prevented triggering bias up and so put into play that offset into the BIOS down signal stopping short of it is a form of optimism testing it a little bit later that’s the open holding it throughout Friday morning form of pessimism vs. really a mixed bag we can’t get label the markets current condition as leaning holy or overwhelmingly or to any relevant degree one way or the other so pull back could resume temporarily because we’ve got unfinished business above but could resume or we can get on with the recovery I suspect it’s going to be one of the other and not just range near Lee in here but we also have one other influence other than the iPhone C meeting external influences fomc meeting earnings we have and I’m saying these structural influences the new club extreme extreme we also have Wednesday which broke out there’s a number of bells and whistles but it broke out above arrange it was only one day’s range or when days break out and this is not trending to originate we can all see there is a low there’s a rally 2 days actually we have to count from a prior high so it’s not a multi-session rally but there’s very clearly a break out so that being expiration week tells us that expirations bias into and out of the weekend and not Monday and Friday but Monday afternoon and Friday morning is likely to have a similar bias bullish addressing the I left one thing off the list previously optimism and pessimism Wednesday not for lack of trying afternoon begins with the bias environment and tree at 1:20 and it’s looking pretty bleak for a bullish wet exit this point throughout this afternoon until the last half-hour the last half-hour which literally saved the indicator it have the recovery extended more than at least but more than 61.8% of the way back up to the entry we’d still suggest that there’s a chance for that wet bullish influence to persist which will be very important Monday morning but it did leave no guessing and literally recovered the entirety of the afternoons drop to that point that’s an upward bias flat butt upward bias because it were traces dips it doesn’t need to be aggressive on Friday afternoon this influence it just needs to be present and if its present on Friday afternoon it’s likely to be aggressive on Monday morning and one thing we don’t know there’s there’s no complete scenario where we will have perfect look at all possible features one thing the one thing that’s lacking in this indicator is the open even if we knew it 100% degree of certainty that Post open Action on Monday morning throughout Monday morning throughout the bias environments lapsing we’re going to be bullish and aggressively bullish we don’t know from what level overnight action can Trend up and greet the open hired with the open for me too I overnight action can gap down to can trim down to greet the open from a gap down or flat in either case or any case when were expecting the indicators influence to be as up aggressively through the morning so greater games steeper slope relentlessness these are characteristics that we should be able to look back at noon Monday and pretty much see them all present Monday morning as far as the bigger picture because the temporary pull back we knew that was a temporary pull back it has resolved up there’s nothing left about this pull-back lower prioritize if it’s ever tested again but there’s nothing about this fullback needs to be retraced recovered exceeded that’s all been doneadd to say that this leg necessarily is done but not necessarily done at any given point but we do have some pretty significant resistance being met to the degree that there is buying pressure reflected which is the whole point to accumulation accumulative patterns identifying the relevant points in them and what sort of upside their sponsorship is willing to defend pull backs against until it’s met and then being able to narrow that down to some precise levels the next tire likely objective in here like we objective yeah the whole 7475 7450 area which can be overlapped it can be overlap considerably intraday but so long as it’s holding through clothes it’s holding if it’s taken out the next tire objective basically 2490 and then big payoff for taking that out 25 1450 there’s no requirement to get there if I were to hold a retest neutralize any attraction above and come out of the like at the bottom the recent bottom come out of the timing window that’s being that’s being spent probing that resistance or relevant level without maintaining that recovery eyeball few things in this particular time but if we don’t know yet that has just a fullback just to pull back without yet neutralize me upside as far as if the upsides first neutralize yeah those are likely to influence price on the way down but they wouldn’t be the objectives and if there’s no for their pull back or a price just did the trend just extends we’ve got to 2490 and 2414 1450 there’s a major objectives that current date accumulation and distribution is reflecting strong headed sponsorship will defend the market on the way to I see a couple questions wasn’t the elections night election night low also do glow plugs Furniture good question because remember it’s got to be in the direction of the Tramp it has to be a trend extreme so it was certainly bigMariners didn’t get enough in here hang on so in other words here’s election night of courseclearly not prepared for this Tipper trailers let’s go back to 81 minutes sorry for the delay here the origin is already trending up I want two to affect price of the index itself so with at least a couple of sessions of being in sync we know that that’s valid since the context of that was the speculative component and the ex had underperformed that distribution didn’t happen in a vacuum and happened from up here what happened from up here sellers were attracted so we would assume that being a second set up second bite of that apple we get the same reaction so that’s over looking for or why were looking for timing-wise near-term it’s not a timing tool as in tomorrow must now perform in a specific way it’s a timing pool timing tool to tell us this time is how we resolved and legs typically don’t endure for weeks and weeks so this time this leg and then reverting back to the s any hesitation resistance like probing the prior High without closing above it or fulfilling the next higher objective if we get a break higher if the trend for cysts does going to be a very very vulnerable to not necessarily that much likelier to there more vulnerable to reversal because there’s some greater degree of likelihood that there that they will be tops if they will be reversed alright that’s it for the bigger picture and certainly with the chart room opening tomorrow at 6 Eastern we’ll see if the beginnings of the overnight action will see where Sunday night’s whether there’s any clues as to Sunday night what it intends to wear it intends to deposit the market at Monday’s open but gapping up flat or gabbing down we will expect the morning to Rally that’ll be the template against which we compare actual price action and so long as coming out of the open if not the open itself price is trending up will anticipate that that Trend persist through the morning if we got down to 5759 the anticipation would be that we trimmed up to fill the Gap back to Friday’s close Friday afternoon or Monday afternoon totally irrelevant whatever the influence influence evaporates and tirely coming out of the Monday Morning by now is the time I bet into expiration the objective was 159 enclose their can’t say that it’s extending some of the earnings that are coming out Google it’s a good level to have recovered for weed test of the high so seemingly ready to greet earnings from a position of strength Facebook just a wrecking ball even if there is an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down it is likely to be recovered to test the I just not greeting earnings from a position of weakness another one that had been requested recently and playing at Joey add Gilead not the same safety Gap caterpillar play 4:40 so basically 8440 pretty critical to the near-term momentum pull back limit 8440 doesn’t hold than likely a deeper pull back down to 72 is underway not a lot of time to be consolidating in here but get out to Fresh High next subject of 9850 not a must-do doesn’t have to be met and it is should be a concern that Maddie is really deteriorating in here price momentum or as I as well Pricelinehow to get rid of this certainly avoided down leg and it’s been rewarded for that they are swing objectives being mad in here it’s still an upfront iri is Ireland’s so it’s it’s tough to get barrage I just can’t see getting bearish on on this if there’s a negative knee-jerk reaction down to something and again seems like we’re getting closer earnings it would likely be recovered especially coming from a fresh High lot of different resistance points buying pressure being satisfied I can’t say it isn’t necessarily a cell spot to sell and if you were going to feed this because of so much mine pressure having been satisfied I could be very rewarding and it could be very deadly the point is if it’s not very rewarding very quickly if any higher high is printing especially a volume is improving be very afraid don’t be short this stock or don’t be short the stock on Fresh highs or wait for some sort of a pull back like under this congestion even more than a 61 8 retracement of this surge before selling because this trend can otherwise extend but this is a spot where at the market where to turn down or bad news were to come out on this. I’d see it being recovered eventually but it would have a Maximum near-term Impact to the downsidestarted OB I’ve heard of them pull back never developed it’s pretty critical area anyway 140 – 40 call it that has had an impact of this is kind of what I mean about there’s the pattern you know to this point is not barrich higher highs Harlow’s death but it is fulfilling a lot of buying pressure and so it is vulnerable to reaction down but the origin of that reaction tells us it’s likely to be recovered as I was just describing a couple of other stocks and here’s how that can play out big reaction down because it’s least defended had its most defenseless you’ve got a lot of buying pressure that spit of the stock that’s satisfied its valuation evaluation that was perceiving future valuation is being fulfilled and so it’s ingesting its exposure accordingly reaction down but it’s recovered because the origin is not a position of weakness takes a while to get through it but looks like we’re getting food or trying how to compare this to what we had discussed in the indexes the three indexes there’s a time in June in June where we see MDX underperform and now they’re back in sync and now that they’re all back NSYNC there’s another opportunity for the trio to reverse back down similarly hear all this chipping away at resistance 143 area or 4240 and now there’s a concerted rally it’s not overlapping it’s an extended latest new highs and so there’s another opportunity another window of vulnerability if this were going to reverse down or be vulnerable to reversing down it would be on something like this so we look for Clues for instance volume really been bigger not great volume accompanying the the trend not a break out but it’s breakout ish instead it’s starting to wane and getting a little ahead of itself as well so it’s a pretty good spot for it’s a pretty bad spot with confidence but as far as expanding sharply on any fresh high-volume while it would be would you look at this side right now and interpreting volume or interpreting the pattern bullishly with a greater degree of confidence if volume had been expanding into this bounce it wasn’t there’s one more opportunity for it to expand and that is on any fresh hi to that degree and it’s interesting there’s a little consolidation here for several days stopping pessimistically short of probing the prior that it’s already coming to contact with it’s not rejecting it so on any fresh high-volume at better explode almost literally explode higher to confirm otherwise that is toppy right Visa Mastercard there’s an article in today’s Barons this week’s parents that came out today there was a big merger or acquisition was a 10 billion dollars British payments processor as far as participatingthere is a objective at seeing it would be one of the 380 but it’s otherwise pretty solid uptrend so we can’t assume that we going to reverse down from their Master Card big Target here when 28 1520 little optimistic had an opportunity for a pullback in May at the low and didn’t get it done here’s a lot going on here at 1:10 I’m not sure the stock gets away without retesting 110 in the most bullish or bearish scenario if there is a knee-jerk reaction down its objective is probably going to be something in the 110 111 area but again it’s an uptrend so there’s no cell signal if it extends we’ve got a couple of objectives 1:35 and 1:46 okay buddy else it thanks so much for being here