Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
No new high on a Friday. Not for lack of proximity, being one day off the high. Nor for lack of attraction above, there being a “new Globex trend extreme” outstanding. And the quasi-seasonality of expiration isn’t generally an obstacle to the prevailing trend. It’s just one day, but it was an important day, so what could it mean?
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2474.50 | 2472.00 |
| …would target | 2481.00 | 2478.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2467.00 | 2464.50 |
| …would target | 2460.75 | 2458.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s high point was its recovery from the morning’s test of the 2463.50 bias-down target. That was 2 ticks short of the afternoon’s 2470.50 bias-up signal, and it printed at the 1:20 bias timing window. That’s when the bullish WedEX influence began, and price immediately began dipping.
Testing and attacking Thursday’s 2465.50 didn’t break lower — Friday afternoon wasn’t going to accomplish something that Friday morning had tried and failed. Its reaction spent the last half-hour rallying back to the afternoon’s 2470.00 high, piercing it by an errant tick at the cash session close. Ultimately, the bullish WedEX influence remained intact, so an aggressively bullish influence Monday morning remained likely.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US FOR THE SATURDAY REVIEW AT 9:30 AM ET. ITS LINK WILL BE EMAILED EARLY IN THE MORNING.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming overnight extended higher Friday to a new high, which suggests there will be follow-through Monday morning to 1.1730-1.1750 before a durable reversal down.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing slightly higher overnight was enough to gap up at Friday’s open. The first breakout from an outside day in this setup is likely to extend, so 1259.70 is now in-play.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday above the upper-objective’s 16.35 high suggests the next leg is underway and targeting 16.70.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s late dip had not reversed the intraday rally, keeping upside momentum alive. Rallying overnight gapped up to Thursday’s high and extended higher through the morning, to within a quarter-point of this leg’s 155-06 target.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ongoing suspicions about the recovery above 46.25 and 47.25 were already being confirmed by Thursday’s close back under the latter. Friday morning’s extension slid under the former. Support at 45.15 should be tested next, and its break would allow the low’s consolidation to tested for a more credible bottom to form.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The potential if not likelihood for filling gaps down to at least 3.02 and possible 2.98 began to be fulfilled overnight. The lower gap was filled by extending down deeper Friday morning. Back above 3.05 would signal that the bottom had fully formed a durable rally leg was underway.
Mid-day Update… No cigar
Only attacking the bias-up signal.
Gapping down had extended to 2463.50, which had been unfinished business below and this morning’s bias-down target. It held as support to avoid renewing the bias-down signal.Two more tests held, and the balance of the morning ranged sideways in negative territory.
It wasn’t optimal like isolating 2463.50‘s test to the open, but not gaining traction for expending selling pressure all morning isn’t that far removed. Otherwise, this morning’s pattern delivered everything that the bullish template required.
The morning’s bias environment exit was had firmed back up to the 2465.75 open. Extending through the noon hour attacked the 2470.50 bias-up signal to within 2 ticks. Bias-up didn’t trigger. This afternoon’s bullish WedEX influence could exceed the 2470.50 bias-up signal anyway, or wait for the bias-environment to lapse. Regardless, back under 2465.50 would signal momentum reversing down.