Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday still fluctuated around the 1.1510-1.1525 resistance that had reacted down last week to 1.1450 support. There’s no requirement to break lower, but any further delay would more likely extend up.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher into Monday’s open attacked the next higher resistance at 1236.00 to within 50 cents, still having potential for extending to 1247.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
After remaining within the week’s range through Friday’s close, rallying into Monday’s open gapped up to 16.09, and closed there, after an interim probe higher through the morning. Back under 15.90 would retest 15.55-15.60.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up to touch the 153-00 buy signal at Monday’s open reacted down to 152-14, but firmed again into the afternoon, still poised to launch a recovery leg.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s eventual close above the 46.00 buy signal was already suspicious, and didn’t extend higher Sunday night. Monday’s action gradually slipped back down to 46.00, further suggesting that it isn’t triggering.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s open at the 2.98 short-term downtrending inflection point immediately surged to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 3.05 close. Closing any higher should extend the recovery without further delay. Meanwhile, much further delay would retest Friday’s pre-open dip to 2.92.
Mid-day Update… Slow creep.
Piercing higher, but not extending.
Since reacting up from the open’s 2454.25 low, the session has essentially trended up in several relatively wide swings. The noon hour’s exit reached a high probing 3 ticks above this afternoon’s 2459.75 bias-up signal.
But 2459.75 held. So, this afternoon is a no-bias environment. This morning was a no-bias environment, too. That didn’t prevent probing higher, but it hasn’t helped remaining higher — let alone extending. And now each of today’s intraday swings have overlapped the same 2459.00 bounce limit that was enacted at Friday’s close.
Back under 2457.50 would suggest this afternoon’s bias environment will be exited in decline. Extending down this afternoon would still target at least a test of “lower prior highs” at 2450.00. Otherwise, fresh session highs would be credible for extending higher, probably to 2464.00-2465.00, and possibly higher.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 18, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: A lot of housing sector reports this week. Surprises should be reliable for influencing price action this week ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, and after last week’s rallies on weak consumer metrics.
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2462.50 | 2459.75 |
| …would target | 2467.25 | 2464.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2455.75 | 2453.25 |
| …would target | 2451.00 | 2448.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Dry Cleaners high?
Little or no interest in rallying.
Global markets weren’t eager to pick up Friday afternoon’s ES rally to new highs. And ES hasn’t been encouraged by its own rally effort. The opening 15 minutes of volatility fluctuated choppily at or under 2456.50 unchanged.
A nearly 4-point surge from attacking the 2454.00 overnight low has gradually improved to touch this morning’s 2459.00 bias-up signal. But it’s too late to trigger, and even too late to invoke the grace period. This is a “no-bias” environment.
Exceeding 2459.00 through 10:30 would have invalidated the 10:15 no-bias signal. Instead, Exceeding 2459.00 now would be “no-bias trending” that is doomed to failure. And having stopped several times pessimistically short of 2459.00 does start to be pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian standpoint. The limp sponsorship is winning that battle.
Perhaps that’s why the pessimism isn’t being exploited. Meanwhile, not having touched 2459.00 by 10:15 doesn’t have the offsetting requirement of testing the 2453.50 bias-down signal. But there’s room down to it as noise within the range during this morning’s window.