Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2460.75 | 2458.25 |
| …would target | 2466.50 | 2464.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2453.50 | 2451.00 |
| …would target | 2448.50 | 2446.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Digging, not deeply, but still digging.
Pre-open fails to attract sponsorship.
I discussed a pullback during the Market Tour that needed to hold 2456.50 to maintain the potential for breaking back to Friday’s high.
It broke. The open was greeted at 2451.50 and slid immediately to 2450.00.
2450.00 is Friday morning’s “lower prior highs” that could have ended the pullback if tested yesterday morning, or Sunday night. That’s no longer likely. Possible, but not likely. In fact, it’s trying. Reacting up from 2450.00 attacked 2455.00. More important, it avoided triggering the 2453.25 bias-down signal.
So, this is a no-bias environment. Having held a test of the 2453.25 bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2459.75 bias-up signal is in-play.
Caveat: 2453.25 is still being tested at 10:30. That’s not at all reassuring. An inflection point above it at 2454.25 has been pierced, but by fewer than 3 ticks. So, back under 2452.00 would still be credible for probing lower. And probably also for fulfilling the 2448.25 bias-down target before recovering. Exiting this morning’s bias environment any lower than that would invalidate 2459.75‘s attraction above.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Kicking at the stall doors.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s choppy range was otherwise irrelevant. Its opening dip only briefly pierced Friday’s late low, while holding the relevant 2454.00 level. Several large intraday swings probed higher and higher, but all overlapped 2459.00 resistance and never touched Friday’s 2461.25 high. The last swing down ended unchanged at 2456.50, still signaling no new buying sponsorship has arrived. Or not. Or nothing. Monday’s intraday range is too narrow to rely on its pattern(s) being predictive of behavior in a more heavily-sponsored environment.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late dip back down to 2456.50 was retraced into the Globex open, until touching 2459.75. That’s this morning’s bias-up signal, and its resistance held. News of more healthcare vote defections triggered a reaction back down to Monday’s low attacking 2454.00. But no lower. Consolidating there through Europe’s opens eventually broke higher and attacked Friday afternoon’s 2460.75. That surge has now been retraced by 61.8% to 2457.00.
If, then…
While overnight action did remain range bound, its choppy range reflects varied opinion. Rather than being complacent, participants are searching for the range’s exit. They’re champing at the bit; they’re kicking at the stall doors. The first trending attempt in either direction would be credible for extending… Having delayed a pullback from beginning immediately after a new trend extreme on Friday, breaking lower today would now be unlikely to bottom at Friday morning’s 2450.00 “lower prior highs.” Exploiting the delay to resume the rally this morning would likely target at least 5 points higher than 2464.00-2465.00 — for however briefly.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2459.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2459.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2456.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2453.25 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s morning market tour let’s who got Bank of America earnings out few things happening really overnight the action is been Guided by or restrained by yesterday’s rain just says range somewhat being Friday afternoon as range but I think this morning is prepared to leave all this behind at least temporarily but probably substantially even if only temporarily so here’s the point is let’s see yesterday let’s take one thing first of all yesterday’s relatively but we can’t really get anything predictive from yesterday’s and by all the way into the what was from the all the way up to add the open rally Marcus not interested in passing Healthcare is interested in avoiding the no vote or at least anything that keeps alive the potential for a pro-business agenda which now with a couple more GOP Congressman abandoning or coming out against announcing they would vote against healthcare plan right here says it’s not going to be successful by the way that is the one 1510 11525 resistance and had reacted down to test 11450 but never broke it and return back to the upper end has now broken higher it’s kind of an interesting set up but I think it does get us to 116 50 at this point I mean there’s a there’s an outside chance of closing back under one 1510 and I really should Mark that off closing back under 11510 and really today is pretty much the only path down prior to extending the one 1650 the Looney which just completed a four-day set up and is pretty much neutral here that’s right here this is Wednesday’s surge high that for the next 3 days is only range around is extending higher today there is no cell signal in the living the pound interesting late which had its self tantalized it’s upside attractions and closed higher on Friday didn’t extend higher yesterday and now it is pulling back even deeper today but only back to support so so far lower prioritize and the Odyssey extending higher as well really avoiding any kind of reaction down just not seeing any cell signals in any currencies silver which gapped up but didn’t get anywhere on a net basis yesterday now now at least today not exploiting sellers aren’t explained and similarly with gold I didn’t quite touch it overnight 1236 that’s buy 50 650 and it’s reacting of pretty sharply right now but only briefly so far anything that if it is 650 through the open probably says the lower end of the range is going to break lower first I don’t see what the news is behind as I suspect that the reaction to something but let’s on the recording and I will see you before the open all right good luck today.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2462.25 | 2459.75 |
| …would target | 2467.25 | 2464.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2455.75 | 2453.25 |
| …would target | 2450.75 | 2448.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.