Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having held the 1.1450 pullback limit Thursday, Friday morning’s econ reports easily triggered a surge attacking 1.1510-1.1525 resistance. Holding its test enables closing under 1.1450 to signal the trend reversing down.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Friday back above the 1219.00 sell signal avoided confirming Thursday’s shallow close under it. Back under 1222.00 would now signal new lows. Otherwise, this bounce can extend to 1236.00 or 1243.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s dip was extended overnight to test the 15.55-15.60 pullback limit before rallying into Friday’s close, and gapping up to recent highs at 16.00. Holding above 15.75 now allows extending higher to 16.30 or 16.70.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially surging in reaction to Friday’s econ reports formed a gap up to 152-12 that surged through Thursday’s highs up to 153-16. Its reaction retraced back down to the 152-12 opening print. “Another warning shot across the bow” at sellers? No further backing-and-filling is needed before resuming the recovery.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s open and Thursday’s close were both at 46.00, preventing it from signaling a rally underway. That didn’t prevent fresh highs Friday morning from testing 46.75. Closing back under 46.00 would be the first step to allowing a more durable bottom to form, but this continues regardless to be a bottoming pattern.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping overnight to 2.92 essentially retested the gap back down to Monday’s close, Friday’s open was at Thursday’s low, and firmed from there. No further backing-and-filling is required to form a bottom, so any early strength Monday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Mid-day Update…
Near-term and longstanding targets met.
This morning’s bias-up signal triggered, putting into play its 2452.25 bias-up target. Consolidating up to 2450.00 into the noon hour finally broke higher to meet it.
This morning’s target? That’s nothing. The MONTH-OLD “unfinished business above” at 2454.00 was met, too. And the delay in meeting 2454.00 suggested also testing its room for noise above it at 2456.50. Which is also this afternoon’s bias-up target, and was just met to within 3 ticks.
There is no “unfinished business above.” Only one condition can create any new unfinished business above — closing above prior highs, today, because today is a Friday. Otherwise, having neutralized its target, exiting the bias environment at 2:30 under 2451.50 would be vulnerable to collapsing into the weekend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 17, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: However high-profile it may be, Monday’s Fed sector report has no track record for influencing price action.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2454.00 | 2451.50 |
| …would target | 2459.00 | 2456.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2447.25 | 2444.75 |
| …would target | 2442.25 | 2439.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Making a break for it.
Probing fresh highs.
The overnight dip down to 2442.00 had recovered back up to yesterday morning’s 2445.00 high ahead of pre-open econ reports — CPI and Retail Sales. 
They triggered a surge to fresh highs at 2449.00. Its reaction down through the open touched 2444.25 before bouncing to fresh highs again at 2450.00.
Consumer Sentiment, which is similar to the two pre-open reports, was due at top of hour. Was the post-open bounce simply anticipating a similar response to similar data? The same template describes yesterday’s post-open surge as Fed Chair Yellen appeared for her second day of Congressional testimony.
Reacting down into and out of the redundant report has bounced off of 2447.00. But not yet to a new high. The 2447.25 bias-up signal has triggered, putting into play the 2452.25 bias-up target. That attraction helps to offset the pre-open breakout originating too late to be reliable.
But be aware of potential to react down from within 3 ticks of the 2452.25 bias-up target. Meanwhile, back under 2447.00 at any time would signal momentum already reversing down.