Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Waiting for buyers.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s fresh highs up to 2446.50 were retraced to essentially unchanged at 2441.00-2442.00. Thursday’s opening bounce to 2445.00 retraced only 61.8% of the overnight highs before failing. Failing from some level was likely since Wednesday’s setup had required gapping up Thursday to extend its rally. Its failure was too late to avoid triggering bias-up, but in time to invalidate it, reversing down sharply to 2439.00. Nevertheless, overnight highs were recovered during the noon hour, and probed briefly during the final hour, closing at the morning’s 2445.00 high.
Overnight action’s new info…
An eventual blip-up pierced yesterday’s highs to touch this morning’s 2447.25 bias-up signal. Its immediate reaction down eventually extended back to 2442.00. Now its reaction is testing yesterday morning’s 2445.00 high.
If, then…
The 2451.50 prior high and its “unfinished business above” at 2454.00 are easily met this morning, if the market wants. If the market wants to reveal the rally’s strength — either by closing above prior highs on a Friday to entrench itself, or to fail a probe of prior highs as sponsorship disappears. Restrained optimism that only firms shallowly into the weekend could be bullish if prior highs are only attacked and not touched. But actual pessimism of dipping back to and through yesterday’s lows would chip away at their support, since yesterday’s highs had failed to extend — not necessarily avoiding new highs next week, but dooming them to failure.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2443.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2447.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2442.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2439.75 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Friday it’s time for Friday’s morning market tour quick reminder tomorrow is a Saturday review I hope you can join us at 9:30 Eastern just like any other than Market open without the market open distraction as for today basically I’m going to do a little deeper analysis than that but essentially this Market is at a Crossroads and it’s not a Crossroads yet that says we’re heading up or down from here to hear it is a Crossroads that says the next action dictates whether the ultimate resolution is up or down what I mean is we have a Breakout does the bigger picture going back months on the es we have a break out yesterday or I’m sorry two days ago from a downtrend it wasn’t invalidated was it the multi-session break out so it doesn’t really get confirmation other than to maintain its momentum other than if it’s not invalidated there is a objective than in play Dora trace the entirety of that down track that’s the reward clear and simple for having broken that downtrend and not rejecting the break of the downtrend nothing about that speaks to the path we can know it 100% degree of certainty if we could that we’re going to at some point retest the high of this pull-back three week old High more so is that possible to do today absolutely there isn’t any single day in this to climate doesn’t contain a intraday move that if duplicated today would get us wouldn’t get us above that Pryor High you should be easy if the market or the rally that is wants to do that so the question is and add the resolution would likely be up accumulation in other words there are varying degrees but in general accumulation and that would be distribution to probe the prior high without closing above it and if the rally wanted to let us know that it intends to extend well it would be free to do that as I say being so close to the prior High on Wednesday to avoid if 39 is touched we’re probably heading to 3550 and remember there’s down there’s room down to 33 without reversing the trend down so sorry to take so long and I was like a Saturday review itself but we literally have Matrix of for possibilities here at a Crossroads and coin flip among the four four sided coin flip alright other markets like giving it to 92293 to complete a bottom or try to complete a bottom of that that needs to hold and react up of course that yesterday’s eia report prevented perhaps doing but only temporarily now overnight action is doing that overnight the Gap attacked close enough if the market wants to go with that and if this point bounce back above 3302 they won’t be any unfinished business with outstanding below any questions good luck today.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2449.25 | 2447.25 |
| …would target | 2454.00 | 2452.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2441.50 | 2439.75 |
| …would target | 2436.75 | 2434.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s open didn’t gap up above 2442.00, despite having probed fresh highs overnight up to 2446.50. That didn’t prevent the morning from extending higher, but it made it difficult since Wednesday’s buyers had gained no traction. Anyway, a brief probe above Wednesday’s highs up to 2446.00 was reversed down sharply to 2439.00.
Retesting the overnight high intraday didn’t equate to resuming the rally, either. Or later piercing fresh highs.Not when every such probe fails to hold through the relevant timing window. Sound familiar? That behavior at lows is what led to this week’s rally.
2439.00 is an odd level to make a low. Perhaps that’s why its reaction was limited to retracing the overnight high, and holding it. There’s no requirement to retest 2439.00, but I’ll expect it if Friday’s open is not extending higher. Not only 2439.00, but probably 2435.50 if not also lower.
Extending higher is likely to begin by almost literally exploding higher. Whether or not gapping up, the two-day shallowly uptrending channel has been restraining optimism. And it’s in proximity to prior highs at 2451.50 and unfinished business above that at 2454.00. A new high close on a Friday would be bullish longer-term. Not holding an intraday probe of new highs would be bearish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s drop from 1.1510-1.1525 resistance down to 1.1450 support tried probing a little lower overnight.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday morning’s overlapping of 1219.00 by only $3 still needs confirmation to put into play a retest of last week’s 1204.00 low, probably to include a test of 1199.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping Thursday attacked the 15.55-15.60 pullback below which fresh lows would be put into play.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Briefly probing above 153-02 overnight was retraced before Thursday’s open. Extending down to test 152-00 “lower prior highs” now allows a more durable recovery leg to begin, initially targeting 154-04.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s last intraday swing had neutralized the attraction back to its opening gap up at 46.00. But Thursday didn’t trend back down, and instead continued testing 46.00. Resolving down at all should begin resolving down by Friday’s open.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from an attack on 2.95 “lower prior highs” was recovered to 3.02 before reversing back down toward intraday lows. Filling the recent gap back down to 2.92 would be optimal for correcting the breakout so that it may resume.
Mid-day Update… Backing-and-filling not necessarily done.
Sitting at session highs. Still.
The post-open bounce got to only 2445.00 as duplicating yesterday’s reaction to Yellen’s testimony. Overnight action had peaked 6 ticks higher at 2446.50. But without gapping up, morning strength would be vulnerable to retracement.
And it was retraced, even reversed momentarily. The 2442.00 bias-up signal had triggered, but then it was invalidated down to 2439.00 through 10:30.
The reversal didn’t extend down, and lasted only long enough to form a Symmetrical Triangle. Its break higher peaked at 2445.00 — only as productive as the open. Fresh highs during the noon hour touched 2446.50 — only as productive as the overnight rally. And within 3 ticks of this morning’s bias-up target, anyway.
Buyers have accomplished nothing, as dictated by the template of not gapping up from yesterday’s pattern. The rally could resume after the bias environment lapses. Meanwhile, a dip is testing 2443.50, where a valid break would renew potential down to 2437.50 and lower.