Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday above 1.1400 buy signal extended up to what had been the 1.1445 pullback whose interim break corrected the rally. At least gaps back to the high up to 1.1485 are likely to be filled.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight strength was retraced back down into what is now 1220.00-1224.00 support Thursday to maintain potential for a bigger bounce to 1235.00 and 1243.00 before extending the decline to one more lower low.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher shallow ranging didn’t end the decline’s momentum, especially so long as bounces hold 16.20 so the next lower objective at 15.55-15.60 can remain in-play.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Two days of testing late-May’s “lower prior highs” didn’t prevent probing lower Thursday. Closing back above 152-20 would star to suggest the decline had ended, yet to be signaled back above 153-00 and 153-18.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s drop was retraced back up to 46.00 resistance into Thursday’s open. The morning’s EIA report pushed another 50 cents higher. But an early-afternoon reversal to unchanged filled the gap back down to Wednesday’s close.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up a nickel Thursday was inappropriate for immediately reversing momentum up, leaving the gap outstanding back down to Wednesday’s 2.85 new low close. Muted reaction to the morning’s EIA report avoided filling the gap, let alone holding it. Probing it Friday and recovering to close positive would signal a bottom is forming.
Mid-day Update… Sellers refueled?
Bounce stops short of signaling recovery.
This morning’s 12-point drop to 2410.25 was retraced almost entirely through the noon hour’s exit. The open’s 2422.25 high was attacked to within 3 ticks. At that same time, this afternoon’s 2420.50 bias-up signal was being tested. Tested within 3 minutes of the 1:20 bias timing window, invoking the grace period.
And still being tested at 1:30 to avoid triggering altogether. This is a noN-bias environment. Not a bias-up with a higher target in-play. And not a no-bias that would be unlikely to probe higher. But a noN-bias.
noN-bias environments often behave like a no-bias, and don’t extend higher. Hovering at or around the bias-up signal until the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30 then often breaks higher as if its trigger were delayed.
Already, though, this afternoon’s noN-bias environment is suggesting something different. It has reacted down 6 points to 2415.50. Sellers were never going to be marginalized in today’s pattern, and always capable of retaking control — not simply correcting or retracing the mid-day bounce, but resuming the decline to 2399.00 and potentially also 2393.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 7, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s payrolls report is being released without any other economic reports, as is often the case.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2423.00 | 2420.50 |
| …would target | 2428.25 | 2426.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2413.25 | 2413.00 |
| …would target | 2409.75 | 2407.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Getting it over with.
Open’s slide starts satisfying a lot of sellers.
The overnight drop to 2416.00 had formed a Symmetrical Triangle with temporary bounce potential up to 2421.25-2421.50. A pre-open bounce did test it by 2 ticks, and then by a third tick post-open.
Then price collapsed for a half-hour.
Recovering 2421.50 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have been likely also to recover the 2419.00 bias-down target through the bias timing window. But 2421.50 held its test through 9:45, and 2419.00 broke lower through 10:15. The bias-down signal was renewed, next targeting 2411.00.
And 2411.00 was tested at the collapse’s low, pierced by 3 errant ticks while both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs became oversold.
That’s the predictable, and potentially the morning’s low. Bounce potential up to 2417.25 would retrace the open’s Running Correction to its upper-quadrant. Any higher would target fresh post-open highs at 2423.50.
Potential to fresh lows at 2399.00 and possibly 2393.00 depend largely on resuming the decline today. Meanwhile, 2311.00 would suffice as the 2-1/2 week old pullback’s low — which would be more reliable if the low’s oversold RSIs were first retested. Otherwise, any lower would suggest the lower objectives are in-play.