Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Getting on with it.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s rejection of Tuesday night’s rally quickly fell more than 10 points from 2429.75. The 10:15 bias timing window exit was probing Monday’s 2420.50 close down to 2419.25. The plunge was recovered almost entirely almost as quickly, attacking 2429.75 at the 11:30 bias environment exit. The balance of the session ranged choppily flat-to-higher at 2426.50-2432.25, settling back under the morning’s 2429.75 highs.
Overnight action’s new info…
A blip-up to 2430.50 was soon reversed to probe under Wednesday afternoon’s 2426.50 lows. Price action consolidated there until Europe’s opens triggered another dip, which extended down sharply to fresh lows for the week at 2416.00 before bouncing. That’s a 61.8% retracement of the bounce from Thursday’s 2402.25 low.
If, then…
Wednesday morning’s plunge had stopped optimistically short of touching Monday morning’s 2418.50 lows. Its support was already chipped away, so the last-minute deflection is bearish from a contrarian perspective. Support there wasn’t even obligatory — in fact, this overnight drop sliced through it. Gapping down under prior lows would be vulnerable to extending lower immediately. Any delay would be in order to correct back up to what is now “higher prior lows” at 2420.00. Extending down would next target 2399.00 if not also 2393.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2421.50 would be less likely to break back under the 2419.00 bias-down target through 10:15, which would otherwise renew the bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
[Unavailable today due to a technical matter.]
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2435.50 | 2433.00 |
| …would target | 2441.50 | 2439.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2427.75 | 2425.25 |
| …would target | 2421.50 | 2419.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday night’s rally had attacked Wednesday morning’s 2430.50 bias-up signal. Its post-open rejection included a plunge that filled the gap back down to Monday’s 2420.50 close. Stopping short of Monday morning’s 2418.50 lows probably only delays the eventual break lower, and the domino effect leading to 2399.00 and 2393.00.
Overnight resistance is at 2433.00. But recovering 2435.50 through Thursday’s open would be credible for ending the 2-1/2 week old downtrend, and also for resuming the rally to fresh highs. Fresh highs might be limited to 2454.00, but fresh highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Wednesday was retraced to Monday’s close at 1.1400, leaving a couple of gaps above outstanding. Their attraction suggests the reaction down is premature, but filling their gaps could complete a topping pattern.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
RSIs diverged positively into fresh lows being probed overnight, while attacking obligatory support from prior lows at 1220.00. Room for noise between 1216.50-1224.00 could hold for a bounce to 1243.00 before resuming the decline.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing fresh lows overnight showed no signs of accumulation. Bounces could test 16.20, and still be likely to resove down to lower lows at 15.50.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Slightly lower lows overnight retested late-May’s “lower prior highs” as support, now needing a close above 153-28/154-02 to signal momentum reversing up.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Two nights being unable to extend above 47.00 resistance reacted down Wednesday. A second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm the pullback underway to test 44.30 where a bottom can be sealed.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Yet another dip to 2.95 support and yet another reaction up was reversed yet again down to attack 2.95 before Wednesday’s open but trended down sharply through 2.90 prior lows to 2.83. Closing back above 2.97 would now signal a new upleg underway.
Mid-day Update… Hovering ahead of news.
Probing fresh session high, but not high enough.
Reacting up this morning from 2419.25 had potential to 2428.00 simply as a corrective bounce. It was met up to 2429.50 before the bias environment began ending. Fluctuation around it resolved up as the noon hour was ending.
Now this afternoon’s 2430.50 bias-up signal is being tested. Testing it at 1:20 invoked the grace period. Holding it at 1:30 triggered late no-bias. If probed, 2430.50 should define the window’s upper-end. Probing above it would be no-bias trending that is doomed to failure. Back under 2428.00 would start to signal momentum reversing down already.
FOMC Minutes scheduled for release at 2:00 ET are a likely catalyst either to accelerate the recovery to become a rally, or to trigger a probe of some sort under this morning’s low. No resolution is required, but delaying a rally could very quickly devolve into a new downleg to fresh lows.