Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Impulse sale.
A lot of selling pressure expended, satisfied.
Yesterday’s open gapped up to 2430.00 and dipped briefly down to 2425.50 before resuming its intraday rally to 2440.50. 
That is now being retested down to 2426.00, while bobbling up to 2430.50. Will this area launch another rally?
The overnight dip down to 2439.00 was a close-call that avoided reversing into negative territory. But there was no bullish reason for its retest after bouncing. And its bounce bounced a lot, attacking the 2445.00 overnight high.
Opening at 2440.00 quickly slid to test the 2431.50 likely objective. Triggering the 2434.50 bias-down signal put into play its 2428.00 target. And a pattern formed along the way with potential to 2426.25. All were met. And the target was only being overlapped at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down.
A retest of 2426.25 is reacting up through 2431.50 as resistance. Regardless of being probed, it should define the morning’s lower-end. A retest of last night’s highs remains possible before the weekend. Back under 2428.00 would now suggest otherwise, potentially clearing the way to and through yesterday’s 2413.50 overnight lows.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Hanging on.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open gapped up above Tuesday afternoon’s 2427.50 high. Probing under Tuesday’s lows down to 2413.50 was isolated to the overnight. The combination produced a session-long rally to 2440.50 in which every timing window probed a prior high except for the last. The close exceeded 2435.50 higher prior lows and was still testing its 2438.00 room for noise.
Overnight action’s new info…
Although Wednesday’s last timing window had ranged sideways, the rally resumed immediately at the Globex open. And then it immediately stopped. First surging 6-1/2 points up to 2444.50, a narrow 2-point range developed until Europe’s opens triggered a blip-up. Its reaction down extended to 2439.00 where a brief consolidation has resolved up sharply to test 2443.00.
If, then…
Session-long rallies are likely to extend higher the following morning. Exceptions require either gapping down, or else already probing higher highs overnight. Last night fulfilled the latter condition of already probing higher highs. But that can be repeated intraday so long as momentum hasn’t reversed down at the open. The dip to 2439.00 was a close-call, and its retest would likely fail — not necessarily for the session, but to shift sentiment this morning down to 2431.50.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2445.00 would be likely to trigger the 2443.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2440.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Thursday’s time for Thursday’s morning market tour and don’t forget yesterday was a pretty impressive day gapped up get them none of the entirety of the bias environment Prep students by his environment range but above least structurally a last relative High extended eventually through that crap advice environment I threw that prior mornings High to not an axillary prior session Mondays by Zimmerman high but through this congestion which doesn’t really stand alone never lasts it has a singular representation of 3550 it’s higher priorities and other words it’s all so essentially the Lowe’s Monday was Friday’s Cat session close made it through all that closed above all that so long as the open isn’t basically gapping down under it today yesterday’s what turned out to be a session on rally will extend higher this morning actually the opportunity to close under 30 back under 3550 was yesterday so today by proxy the open would need to reject 3150 back under 3150 10 day kind of selling pressure coming in there could have been indicated just buy closing under 35 yesterday and this last night after the last time until yesterday range sideways every time ago but one had prior timing Windows High that’s a characteristic of a long really was not until but it did confirm a break out yesterday the Europe extending higher actually pretty significantly higher relevantly higher testing for 11470 which is the next higher objective it has a confirmed break out as well looking for a third of ventral third I are close silver and gold both had bounced into some bigger resistance points retracement points even if we knew the hundred percent degree of certainty they were going to extend higher they’re actually testing some resistance that needs or as deserving of a reaction down correction if gold were the closer to 1240 650 it probably isn’t just a correction probably is not just a correction Long Pond continuing this huge sell off it had tested the minimum objective of the second consecutive down yesterday had the decline extended yesterday its minimum objective was 150 for 16 the leg has potential to test 153 28th so while yesterday’s overnight leg and tested 154 16 that was never tested intraday wasn’t rejected we didn’t expect momentum to reverse up and now the decline is resumed or extended to 15320 pretty big drop overnight over point so point of corner so this area is being tested now closing back above 150 for 16 would indicate that the bottom was in or at least that otherwise not so much firmer overnight as testing yesterday’s highs but it it’s a confirm break out and eventual third higher clothes at least a third hour of clothes is required at some point that doesn’t mean it has to be today and doesn’t protect against an immediate reaction down just tells us that the reaction down or recover but it does tell us at today’s report is being created from a position of strength I get down to the news and then reaction but we just .
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2446.25 | 2443.50 |
| …would target | 2451.50 | 2449.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2437.00 | 2434.50 |
| …would target | 2430.75 | 2428.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
We started the day Wednesday with a review of all the “ineffectual optimism” that had been fueling the decline from a contrarian perspective. That’s weak-handed sponsorship, meaning that strong hands were sellers. So, did strong hands already vacate the market earlier than usual Wednesday, allowing weak hands the day’s substantial run-up?
Closing above a relevant level should define the difference between strong-handed and weak-handed sponsorship. And Wednesday did close at or above the relevant levels of 2435.50 and 2538.00. That can be invalidated by gapping down Thursday to and or through 2431.50. Holding a test of 2431.50 would more likely establish a session low.
Keep in mind that volume may remain relatively stable, but actual liquidity — a diversity of opinion, sentiment and motivation — will be thin. Almost like a Friday, the morning’s bias can extend through the noon hour.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially dipping held the 1.1355 pullback limit Wednesday before resolving up sharplyto 1.1441. Extending higher Wednesday confirms Tuesday’s breakout from a multi-session range. Regardless of either session’s advance or the cumulative gain, at least an eventual third higher close is required.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming further overnight finally retraced the 1254.50 origin of last of Sunday night’s “fat finger” plunge. Its resistance held post-open, enabling another downdraft to begin that actually tests the decline’s 1235.00 target.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs overnight probed the 16.75 prior high that had preceded Sunday night’s “fat finger” sell-off. Its reaction down was recovered, but not exceeded through the close.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s steep drop had only two likely resolutions, either to extend down a lot immediately, or else to rally. Sharply lower overnight lows tested the next leg’s 154-16 objective down to 154-09 and bounced. Wednesday’s post-open action dipped to attack the overnight low down to 154-19.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting down to API after Tuesday’s close was recovered overnight, and then extended in reaction to Wednesday morning’s EIA report. The 44.90 target was attacked to almost within a nickel, while forming an Ascending Triangle targeting 45.25.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up and extending higher Wednesday confirmed Tuesday’s breakout, sealing a bottom. That bottom can still be tested as support down to 2.95, but the rally is otherwise free to exten.