Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Overnight action had extended Wednesday’s session-long rally pattern up to 2445.00. Not maintaining the overnight extension above Wednesday’s 2440.50 highs was the only way to avoid probing higher post-open. And it was the only path for the morning to trend down without gapping up 2431.50. And while 2431.50 was likely to define the pullback low, not holding it targeted fresh lows under 2413.50. They got to 2402.25.
2402.25 was tested within minutes of reaching the afternoon’s 2409.75 bias-down target. Its test was fully retraced within minutes, too. That smelled of capitulation, and its reaction up extended up to 2422.50. The “V” bottom left outstanding at the low tends to be retested. But it would likely hold if tested AFTER Friday’s open, being the 5-day holiday weekend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s breakout from a multi-session range was already substantial. So was Wednesday’s confirmation. That didn’t prevent extending higher still on Thursday. But Thursday’s higher close does fulfill the confirmed breakout’s minimum objective, so a reaction down has become likely.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dropping $9 to 1239.70 into Thursday’s open stopped short of the 1235.00 target before reacting up to the 1246.50 bounce limit. Holding its test as resistance maintains the 1235.00 target.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
[Rolling coverage forward to Sep which trades at a 10-cent premium to Jul] Sliding at Thursday’s open filled the gap back down to Tuesday’s 16.65 close, which had launched Wednesday’s gap up to the highs. The decline’s 16.35 target was already met Sunday night.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sharply lower lows overnight for a third consecutive session tested the decline’s 153-28/154-02 objective down to 153-18. The 154-16 buy signal was attacked to within 4 ticks, still needing at least a consolidation before a recovery would be credible.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s attack on the 48.90 target had formed an Ascending Triangle with its target being 49.25. It was tested before Thursday’s open and probed intraday by 20 cents before dipping back under 44.90. A corrective pullback to 43.40 is likely, and would help to seal a bottom.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The initial ultimate reaction to Thursday’s EIA report probed above Wednesday’s high to 3.12, which had been the confirmation for Tuesday’s breakout. Its reaction down avoided fulfilling the minimum objective of a third higher closer, which suggests a corrective pullback to 2.95 before extending the rally.
Mid-day Update… Beating the holiday rush.
Getting that capitulative feeling.
2431.50 did not define this morning’s low. It defined the opening hour’s low. that was after having extended yesterday’s rally overnight up to 2445.00 (ineffectual optimism). But it 2431.50 soon gave way to retest yesterday’s 2413.50 pre-open low. 
Attacking it to within 1 tick held through the noon hour (ineffectual optimism). The noon hour’s exit was already resolving down, and it extended to 2402.25 (pessimism).
Yesterday’s pre-open litany of all recent instances of ineffectual optimism didn’t prevent the big intraday rally. But it seems to have undermined the rally from extending. And encouraged it back down.
The 2409.75 bias-down target was overlapped at 1:20. It immediately extended down anyway, to 2402.25. And then it immediately recovered. That feels a lot like capitulation. And if the decline has run out of sellers, then a recovery won’t be far behind.
But we don’t know that the decline is done. Back under 2403.00 would target fresh lows at 2399.00 and 2393.00. If the capitulation holds, or holds a retest, then the market would likely bounce into and out of the weekend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jun 30, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Chicago PMI is released privately to its institutional subscribers several minutes before being released publicly. Any early reaction is likely to be duplicated. And any reaction is likely to be duplicated by the Consumer Sentiment news.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2423.75 | 2421.00 |
| …would target | 2428.00 | 2425.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2418.25 | 2415.50 |
| …would target | 2412.50 | 2409.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.