Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The noon hour had isolated fresh session lows under 2441.00 down to 2437.25. Had that low been a retest of a prior low, or if its recovery extended above a prior high, then the balance of the afternoon could have recovered to Monday’s highs and higher.
No prior low was being tested and no prior high was recovered. the recovery could have developed anyway, but didn’t. The noon hour’s range broke lower down to 2434.00.
But the break lower was delayed until the last half-hour, essentially the position squaring window. And it held a test of last Wednesday’s 2435.50 close. Held it, as in still overlapping it at the close, but not necessarily rejecting its test.
Gapping up Wednesday above Tuesday afternoon’s 2442.50 high would reject all of the subsequent downtrending action. It would also recover the noon hour’s isolated probe under the morning’s lows. And it would trigger a short-squeeze targeting new highs. Otherwise, Wednesday’s open could be at the 2432.50 area of Friday’s “lower prior highs,” on the way down to 2425.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping further Tuesday morning still only attacked the 1.1155 sell signal. Triggering it Wednesday would be suspicious, already expending a lot of selling pressure after having only trended down since Monday’s gap up.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s lower lows confirmed Monday’s breakout from the multi-session range that had formed since Thursday’s open. At least an eventual third lower close is required, likely to include a test of “lower prior highs” at 1235.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s breakout from the two prior sessions’ ranging was confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Tuesday, next targeting 16.25-16.30.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another test of the 155-28 bounce limit overnight was its third. This time breaking higher has made a near-term dip back to the range’s lower-end less likely., with the next higher objective being 156-24.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to fresh lows Tuesday doesn’t greet the post close API report from a position of strength, or Wednesday morning’s EIA report. Any knee-jerk reaction up would likely resolve down to fresh lows.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap down under all prior lows didn’t extend Tuesday, nor was it recovered. Not yet touching last week’s “higher prior lows” makes a bottom more difficult to form before Thursday’s EIA report.
Mid-day Update… Are they through, yet?
Opening slide resumes, extends. And ends?
Extending the pre-open slide down to 2441.50 was likely. In fact, its test defined the open’s low. Reacting up 4 points was impressive, and confirmed the level’s relevance. 
But the open wasn’t recovered, let alone positive territory.
Exiting the morning’s bias environment back at the open’s low created a new objective down to 2437.75. Its test has reacted up sharply to test the morning’s “higher prior lows” up to 2442.50. Its catalyst was the start of a tax reform speech by House Speaker Ryan.
The speech’s timing helped to isolate the probe under this morning’s low to the noon hour — the noon hour was entered above the morning’s low, and exited back above it. This setup can be a very powerful reversal.
First things, first… attract new sponsorship. Too deep of another detour and too long of a delay in extending the recovery, would suggest new sponsorship isn’t being attracted. Entering the top of the hour back above 2444.00 would be helpful, if not also optimal, and could extend back above yesterday’s highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 21, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Wednesday’s econ reports has a track record for influencing price action. But the two morning housing sector data being the day’s only reports could be influential in case of a surprise.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2450.75 | 2448.00 |
| …would target | 2455.75 | 2453.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2442.50 | 2440.00 |
| …would target | 2436.75 | 2434.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.