Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Dumping ballast?
Pre-open dip slides into support.
The 2446.25 open resolved down quickly to resume the pre-open slide. A bounce from 2 points lower was anticipated to resolve down, too. Which it did, testing its 2441.50 objective as the Market Tour recording describes.
Dipping to 2441.50 also satisfied the Running Correction’s retest which had developed during yesterday’s open. It’s lower 
quadrant was the likely pullback objective for any downleg that might have developed yesterday. None did.
Now the Running Correction’s retest has two likely resolutions. Either extend down to its origin in Friday’s range below, or else resume the rally to new highs. The 2442.75 bias-down signal’s test isn’t offering clarity — it was being tested at both 10:15 AND 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.
An interim bounce up to 2445.00 does suggest resolving up. An offsetting test of the 2449.50 bias-up signal is not in-play. But “unfinished business above” at 2454.00 remains outstanding.
Probing a new high today after having gapped down would form the basis for a Pivot Reversal, which would be triggered by closing lower — the most bearish setup available today. Alternatively, back under 2441.50 would start to signal a deeper pullback underway.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Exploit, defend or ditch.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Greeting the new week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. And any overnight one-way relentless trending is vulnerable to reversing immediately at the open. Meanwhile, the bearish WedEX’s influence was looming. Each setup becomes irrelevant if not already developing during the open, and Monday’s gap up ignored both to quickly indicate its intend to extend. The 2443.50 prior high was probed up to 2450.00 during the first hour, 19 points above Friday’s close. The morning bias environment only dipped,, but the afternoon produced two slightly higher highs up to 2451.50. All prior “unfinished business above” was neutralized, and a new requirement was created at the afternoon’s unmet 2454.00 bias-up target.
Overnight action’s new info…
A last-minute dip through the futures close had retraced 61.8% of Monday’s last upleg which had emerged from the afternoon bias environment. Overnight ranging was even narrower. Firming to attack yesterday’s highs up to 2451.00 was already drifting back down into Europe’s opens, now piercing a fresh low at 2447.25.
If, then…
Yesterday’s pattern following the open’s surge had chopped its way flat-to-higher. For having developed immediately upon probing a new high, the reaction can be considered restrained optimism. It’s not outright pessimism, but it’s still potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Extending higher is likelier than a downleg — at least, an immediate pullback prior to neutralizing 2354.00 would very likely recover. This safety tether will disappear upon fulfilling that higher attraction, and not creating any new objective or leaving any other new objective outstanding. Then the rally becomes as good as its momentum, or lack thereof.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2447.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2449.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2451.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market to and nothing new over night absolutely nothing new over night nothing overnight yesterday was of course an interesting day having rallied overnight trended up overnight and gaped up couple of potential pitfalls were ignored basically first of all one-way Relentless overnight trending is vulnerable to being reversed whichever direction at the open greeting a new week that is coming out of the weekend with extreme sentiment as often not the majority of the time but often enough to be aware of it I sent them into extreme and either of those two are going to be obviously rejected or terminated basically coming out of that opening 15 minutes of all today if they’re going to be at all in the default is the opposite and we got the opposite we all speak of it in reviewing yesterday’s open stop being influential as soon as the open which had turned it up post 945 printed a fresh hot right there we knew it was dead and this is interesting because all the way through it even though should not be surprised if today is and take care of whether it’s dropping back to lower prioritize whether it’s 24 36 or even lower to 3150 32 either of those would actually be much more bullish longer-term than to Simply extend the rally right away but any case there is potential there is one ability to retrieve sment alright let’s see as far as where we are over night there was that late recovery out of the bias environment exit and we just basically there’s 24 5025 cassion clothes extended through the Futures clothes and that’s basically where we been since that very narrow ranging just now actually piercing the overnight low that was set early at 4750 piercing and buy a giant tick buy a single Tech that’s there’s no reason why that can’t extend down itself but if it does it’s opening at a deficit creating a gap in other words back to yesterday’s Cash Station close I don’t want to be filled so it’s I’ll be Rollin to be a seller early I wouldn’t mind seeing a pull back here gap down to be able to consider buying for a probe prize for getting that 53 or 54 out of the way alright let’s see how the markets still on this range still behaving at topoli and still sitting optimistically shopping optimistically short of touching any prior low or lower Pryor High that is before bouncing back into the range so it’s I’ll be moving this cell signal out because that’s where it belongs and it still belongs pound weaker remember it came right back up to maximum balance limit was actually proved but nothing sustained this cell signal that was pierced head of Thursday’s open being pierced again same cell signal less likely to hold this time likelier to break lower at least fill the gap Looney weaker here you know there’s a higher close outstanding because of this confirm Breakout so it’s tough to Longbine still fluctuating in this range interesting Lee the overnight touched Sunday nights I or I’m sure that really the bounce limit that’s been tested a few times back under 155 really 155 155 o102 but 135 back in at 1:55 says 150 329 the lower end of the range is in play and under 150 329 says top has formed meanwhile until that break and actually because of the delay in the brake if there’s anything higher any kind of firming at this point is been so thoroughly tested the upper end of this range anything higher probably at least probes higher I’m not prepared to say that a new rally leg gets underway the probes higher crude oil not a happy night we need to roll this forward by the way to August so you can see almost a $0.30 premium but the bottom line with crude oil is its to first of all balance limit by signal not even being challenged The Unfinished Business it was below here this gap down under all prior Lowe’s from the 8th so coming up on almost 2 weeks we can have just wasn’t rejected here’s a better template there was a gap up above all prioritize for that range it was tested and then rejected didn’t needed to see something similar to that on the down side to consider that a bottom and didn’t see it API results are after the close by the way and then tomorrow this will not know Matt’s here’s the problem is if crude oil gaps down today as it’s indicated to do it’s going to take a lot of bouncing back of that.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2452.25 | 2449.50 |
| …would target | 2458.00 | 2455.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2445.25 | 2442.75 |
| …would target | 2430.00 | 2437.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s new high close was a reasonable trade-off for the bearish WedEX not being influential. A better trade-off was that the early indication of WedEX’s demise defaulted to extending the rally. Which it did, considerably.
Regardless of the degree to which the rally extended Monday, an outstanding structural requirement was neutralized. The two-week old requirement for at least one more new high close is now done. More may come, but none are required.
Along the way, Monday afternoon’s bias-up was triggered and now its 2454.00 target is “unfinished business above.” 
Attacking it to within 3 ticks at any time would neutralize it.
Ironically, AMZN offers a singular intersection of two competing influences — trending up, and overextended. Monday’s new high (green circle) failed to hold above recent “higher prior lows” (red circle). The trend is up, but the pattern is vulnerable to reversing down at any time. The broader market, too.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday touched 1.1255 resistance and reversed back down to unchanged, duplicating the distribution from the test of “higher prior lows” that already had contained Friday’s bounce. There’s no requirement to resume the decline, but the only reason to further delay it now would be to avoid it altogether.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows into Monday’s open not only extended the decline, but also resumed it from the two-day consolidation of having gapped down sharply Thursday. .Only closing back above 1259.25 would prevent this leg from extending next to 1235.00
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s break lower from having consolidated into the weekend all but confirms the current decline is targeting a test of 16.30 before a bottom can be credible.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s 61.8% retracement back up to Wednesday afternoon’s high was pierced by only 1 tick overnight, keeping alive the vulnerability to launching a new reaction down under 155-00 targeting 153-29, and potentially also its break as a larger top forms.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up slightly Monday was reversed only slightly, but that was enough to pierce Thursday’s prior low down to 44.34. Closing back above 45.29 and 45.80 would reverse the trend up.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction to EIA had been maintained Friday, delaying its likely retracement back to last week’s 2.92 lows. The delay was compensated by gapping down Sunday night and extending to probe new lows at Monday’s open down to 2.88. Any recovery requires closing back above 2.95.