Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2439.00 | 2438.25 |
| …would target | 2444.00 | 2443.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2432.50 | 2432.00 |
| …would target | 2427.25 | 2426.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNALr | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Entering Monday’s noon hour so optimistically is precisely what had suggested it wouldn’t extend higher. Or, that extending higher would be doomed to failure. I would have preferred the latter. The former only narrowed its range since then from 3-1/2 points to 1-1/2 points.
Avoiding a probe of fresh highs had made the pattern increasingly vulnerable to launching a multi-session correction. Not yet declining by the final hour had made a fresh high obligatory. Not required, but suddenly likely, and still likely to fail. That didn’t happen either.
Dipping into the close remained within the range. And like entering the noon hour optimistically, the late timing suggests its price action wasn’t sponsored by strong hands. Extending down Tuesday would be credible only if begun immediately, and without holding any test of support. Otherwise, “unfinished business above” at the morning’s 2440.00 bias objective remains outstanding, as does a higher close.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Signals for ES on Jun 5, 2017
The prior week had ended in new highs. And its close was the second consecutive higher close from a multi-session range, which I consider to be a confirmed breakout. Each setup for its own reasons requires an eventual higher close. Not necessarily immediately, and not necessarily just one. Monday’s narrow ranging leveraged that upside entrenchment to rest, allowing only a couple of signals to break intraday.
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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Monday suggested that Friday’s close above 1.1255 was not actually resuming the rally. Closing under 1.1235 would confirm, by signaling momentum is reversing down.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing fresh highs Monday on geopolitical concerns in the Gulf didn’t run higher, and the session ultimately tested April’s “higher prior lows” around 1284.00. Closing higher Tuesday — if not just avoiding a negative close — would suggest a probe above April’s highs is underway.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s probe above Friday’s high qualifies somewhat as a breakout. Simply avoiding a reversal down Tuesday would make the 17.90 attraction above likely to be tested next, regardless of the pattern’s ultimate resolution.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having fulfilled its longstanding target in the 154-00 area on Friday — and then extending well beyond it through the close — there is room for a pullback to test 154-00 as support. If tested, then trapping shorts would be a function of its reversal. The more abrupt and substantial, the likelier that new highs are in-play.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Geopolitical unrest in the Gulf triggered overnight gains but they were retraced entirely into negative territory. Monday’s dip under Friday’s lows didn’t extend, perhaps a little too shallowly to be confident that shorts are trapped, but not still credible for a bottom if Tuesday were to follow-through with the reversal. Otherwise, the downtrend remains intact.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Momentarily probing a fresh low Monday down to 2.93 doesn’t change whether a bottom is forming, because the selling pressure was too nominal to have trapped shorts, despite recovering into positive territory. There is no new signal..
Mid-day Update… Holding up. Holding back?
Consolidating at unchanged.
The post-open bounce stopped 4 ticks short of fulfilling its offsetting test of the 2440.00 bias-up signal. That was before even triggering no-bias. And it was 2 points above Friday’s close… briefly.
The balance of the bias environment drifted back down to 2434.75. Surging into the noon hour momentarily pierced unchanged above 2437.50. But that is a very suspicious window to express sentiment, and it has not extended. In more than an hour since then.
The noon hour’s exit pierced above 2437.50 again. Despite not rejecting unchanged, another relevant window has avoided probing higher. The vulnerability to launching into a downleg is increasing significantly. This morning’s unfinished business above at 2440.00 may be inhibiting that. A fresh high that reverses back down would be bearish.